https://no01.substack.com/p/protect-and-survive
No1
3 hours ago

Dear readers,

Civic duty calls once again.

Apparently, word got around because this week I was contacted by THE Ministry.

Yes, THAT one!

They heard through the grapevine that in December, I had assisted the COMEX to keep its silver in the vaults, and in February that I had ghostwritten the C.R.A.S.H.’s FAQ.

They said they like my writing, they like my style. I said I was flattered, and oh by the way, which capital-M ministry are you? Doesn’t matter, they replied, because No1’s really in charge anyway.

What you may or may not know, is that back in the seventies, they printed this little orange booklet called “Protect and Survive”. Just in case the bombs dropped. Very useful information like taking the doors off their hinges and leaning them against a wall. Or whitewashing the windows against the heat flash. And if you are in need of some facilities, a chair and a bucket will do.

Lovely stuff. Slightly outdated.

Because, so they explained, World War III started some time ago, but its official status remains undetermined. You see, the commission responsible for ruling on whether the public could be informed of this had died of old age before deciding whether the previous war had officially ended. Unfortunately, a replacement commission could not be appointed without the authorisation of the original commission, which could only be granted at a properly constituted meeting.

And now there’s a printing deadline.

So after one long evening, a large whisky and absolutely no security clearance whatsoever, I have here my first draft. Please tell in the comments how you would improve it.

The Ministry will be reading the comments. (They read everything anyway.)

Protect and Survive, revised edition. Ref. PS/WW3/2026/rev.1. This booklet tells you how to keep your home and family as safe as possible under attack. It supersedes all previous editions, including any you may or may not have heard about. Prepared by No1 in particular on behalf of The Ministry. Commit it to memory, store it somewhere safe but do NOT keep it in the cloud.

1. You are already at war. World War III began some years ago and if you did not notice it, The Ministry considers this an encouraging sign that its public information disclosure policy is working as intended.

Unlike previous wars that involved sirens and four-minute warnings, this one started with a freeze order. In February 2022 roughly €300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves were immobilised. Your funds remain your own until further notice, at which point ownership will be reviewed by the appropriate authorities.

Hostilities have since spread to chip controls, tariffs and, in retaliation, rare earths. The Ministry advises citizens to remain calm and to avoid purchasing any strategic minerals without first checking whether they have become strategic since the purchase.

The front line currently runs through the courts. A Russian court has ordered Euroclear to pay over €200 billion in damages and upheld the ruling on appeal in July. This week the Belgian prime minister told parliament he is confident the Commission will not propose touching the assets again.

Further exchanges of fire are expected by registered mail.

Please allow six to eight weeks for delivery.

2. Why there will be no mushroom cloud. The Ministry has carried out a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. Bombs failed it.

After more than four years of the conventional kind, the World Bank puts the rebuilding bill for Ukraine at $588 billion. Rubble has no resale value. It’s called rubble for a reason after all.

Our predecessors attempted a compromise. They developed the capitalist bomb. It was designed to kill the occupants with radiation but leave the buildings mostly standing. This bomb could kill a man without staining his suit. Leaving the suit available for appropriation.

The current instrument is a considerable improvement. It spares the suit, the building and, where commercially advantageous, the man.

Field trials have been encouraging.

When Greece went bust, its biggest port was transferred to COSCO as part of the bailout, 51% for €280.5 million, with COSCO as the only bidder. The Ministry considers this a successful outcome for competitive procurement.

When American homeowners went bust after 2008, Blackstone went on the biggest home-buying spree in history, acquiring roughly 50,000 homes for about $10 billion. The houses were subsequently rented back to the people who could no longer afford their mortgage.

In both cases, these assets were returned to extractive use, often with the original occupants still inside. No rubble was required.

The Ministry classifies this as an orderly transition.

Citizens are advised that in the event of a financial disaster, they should remain inside the property and await instructions from their new owner.

3. Do not look for the enemy headquarters. Some households believe the attack is directed by a single master plan. The Ministry wishes to reassure the public that there is no plan. A working group was set up to find one. It has not been heard from since.

In March last year, the people who would have to run such a plan added a journalist to their group chat about bombing Yemen, then congratulated each other on the strikes with emojis.

Nor do the senior commanders agree on the objective. On Tuesday Ken Griffin said markets are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble. On Wednesday Larry Fink said that slowing down the data centres would stoke inflation, a week after telling CNBC that a moratorium would mean recession.

Citizens are advised not to attempt to reconcile these positions. The Ministry has been unable to do so, and has substantially better stationery.

4. Recognising the enemy. Citizens who still sense coordination are invited to watch a murmuration. Hundreds of thousands of starlings swim through the sky as one animal, yet each bird tracks only its seven nearest neighbours, and has no further plan beyond not being the one the falcon gets.

The financial community operates on the same principle.

Each participant watches its seven nearest neighbours and the exit. Nobody knows where the flock is going, but everyone has a strong suspicion that the fellow on their left knows something. This might resemble a conspiracy from a distance, but up close it is just ten thousand small greeds flying in formation.

The Ministry’s technical staff call this disorganised crime.

The Ministry’s legal team has since rebranded this term to “the market”.

Since its IPO, CoreWeave’s insiders have sold approximately $3.3 billion worth of their shares. Meanwhile, central bankers are buying gold at four times their pre-2022 pace.

The Ministry stresses that neither activity constitutes proof of an impending emergency. Should the flock suddenly change direction, please follow the bird in front of you. It has probably sold already.

5. Historical note for the sceptical. The economic hit men of the last century followed much the same principle. John Perkins was an economist at a Boston engineering firm whose job it was to write rosy growth forecasts to justify enormous loans. The engineers got the contracts, the banks got the interest, the local elite got its cut and the country got the bill.

Nobody needed a secret lair. A bonus scheme was quite sufficient.

The West ran this programme for decades, until China adopted a similar approach under the name Belt and Road. The West is shocked, shocked, to find lending going on.

The Ministry is advising citizens that when no malice can be found, they should look for incompetence. The Ministry holds strategic reserves of both.

6. Official warnings. Citizens may occasionally hear official warnings. These are genuine and must be filed in a safe place where they cannot interfere with reality.

In June the BIS warned that the AI boom was being financed through hedge funds and private credit, and one of its officials said a correction could come much faster than any banking crisis before it.

The Ministry commends the BIS for identifying the danger while there is still ample time to do nothing about it.

The purpose of an official warning is to exist before the event. After the event, lessons will be learned. However, The Ministry wishes to stress that these do not imply any change in policy. Those require a separate authorisation, which may take considerably longer than the crisis itself.

Citizens are reminded that aforementioned warnings are not a promise that an event will be prevented. They simply exist so that, should the event occur, somebody can show they were expecting it.

7. Preparing your inner refuge.

In the event of a cyberattack, citizens are advised to find a safe place, preferably one without an internet connection. A cupboard will do.

This follows after two flaws were discovered in PHP this week. They had been present for decades, apparently harmless because nobody knew how to exploit them.

Citizens who cannot patch are strongly advised to take their website offline. The Ministry applauds this pragmatic approach to digital resilience: a service is considered secure when it is no longer available to the public.

The British government has led by example and switched off 32 of its own services. These are now immune to cyberattacks, technical failures and complaints from the public. Satisfaction scores are expected to improve.

Citizens are reminded that old code is perfectly safe as long as nobody reads it, and that the most reliable way to secure a computer is to switch it off.

The Ministry considers this a remarkable technological achievement: after decades of innovation, we have finally developed a security system that works best when nobody uses it.
Mr Market has the shakes, not the stirs
Mr Market has the shakes, not the stirs
No1
·
23 Oct
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8. Casualties. Under financial attack, casualties are light, evenly distributed and statistically difficult to locate.

Korean retail borrowed to buy memory chips and was subsequently deleveraged.

Barclays is releasing 5,000 staff back into the community.

France is experiencing elevated levels of civic engagement over the cost of living.

A small number of conventional casualties may continue at the edges, in proxies and in other people’s countries.

This week some twenty missiles were fired at Kyiv, and Houthi strikes killed four people in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

The Ministry extends its condolences to those affected, but reminds citizens that these deaths fall outside the scope of this booklet.

The people concerned are just as dead.

9. Withdrawn pending review.

10. A note for British households. You may experience a strong sense of déjà vu. This is normal and covered by existing guidance. Do not attempt to correct the timeline yourself.

Britain has fought this war before. On September 28, 1976, the year the original booklet was finished, Chancellor Denis Healey was at Heathrow on his way to Hong Kong when the pound fell so fast that he turned around, and the next day Britain asked the IMF for $3.9 billion, the largest loan it had ever made. Spending cuts followed. No doors were removed from their hinges.

Fifty years on, public debt has passed £3 trillion, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates, and the Chancellor is once again a Labour politician called Healey.

The Ministry has checked this twice and is reluctant to check a third time.

Ministers are advised to stay away from Heathrow. Anyone already checked in should remain calm and avoid looking at the exchange rate.

11. After the attack. No deaths are planned at this stage. The Ministry needs you alive and paying off your outstanding obligations.

The only item scheduled for a new label is the deed to your house. You are welcome to stay in it.

Somebody has to pay the rent after all.