The assumption should be that, regardless of whether it's a false flag, the War Directors and social engineers will take full advantage of all such tragedies.
That's an example of a good assumption and serves to encourage alertness and immunity to propaganda.
An example of a bad assumption is that it's a racist or xenophobic attack which reflects a general racism in all Whites, leading to the assumption that something radical has to be done about it which leads to yet further expansion of the totalitarian Hate Laws.