- Go on then, Will: Predict *precisely* where the climate emergency will be in 10 years. Younger Archived Message
Posted by Rhisiart Gwilym
on November 11, 2019, 8:41 am, in reply to "Re: The ‘Greta Effect’: Are We Really This Time, for Certain Certain, Heading for the End Times?"
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people than me will be able to check whether you got it right. But a warning: try not to presume that our human grasp of complex situations is as godlike omniscient as we like to stroke our egos by believing. It really isn't, neither by reason nor by intuition. Probablistic realities like the one we inhabit are inherently unpredictable in precise detail. And our future here on Earth, as it pans out, will prove to be less fully predictable, even in the matter of the - absolutely real - climate-shift emergency as in everything else. There will be surprises. Meanwhile get busy promoting re-forestation-with-permaculture to protect our food-plus getting ability as far as possible, and as the one biggest, entirely practical response that will alleviate the worst of the emergency. (Good exemplary starts in popular mass tree-planting already made in Africa, India and China; highly practicable, and unlikely to encounter any large-scale resistance or indifference. Something that masses of people would get behind with enthusiasm!) Probably, I should say, of course (since the future is inherently unpredictable in precise detail).   Besides offering precise predictions (and planting trees), you can help further still by promoting nature-mimicking methods of keeping domestic livestock, along lines advocated - and practiced and proven - by the likes of Allan Savory and associates; and by getting personally involved in activist guerrilla tree-planting, along the lines of examples I've been posting here for some time. Both the forests and - wisely used - grasslands have great potential for easing the worst of the crisis, particularly in the rapid re-sequestration of atmospheric carbon, whether released as CO2 or CH4. There does indeed need to be a new, much larger global equivalent of the Manhattan Project, when people showed an unprecedented level of widespread, coordinated cooperation in creating a large-scale response to a perceived emergency. And indeed, as then, this time there is no time to waste; none at all. But in the meantime, the fact remains that we're kidding ourselves if we think we can predict exactly how this looming member of the Synergising Global Crises is going to eventuate in detail. We can't. Nor is there any use at all in indulging in the usual Chicken Little shrieks of 'We're all gonna die! In eleven years!!" which is equally nonsensical. (And btw, I don't see any sign that GT ever said any such thing, or thinks it.) If you're looking for drivel, Will, that's where to seek: amongst the Chickens. So - what will the situation be like, precisely, in ten years. Place your bet! Cheers! PS: I must echo Thomas in thinking that getting past the SGCs to a quieter epoch on the other side will indeed necessitate the disappearance of a chunky percentage of our current gross human population overshoot; and also the long, irreversible decline from hitech, energy-chugging industrial 'civilisation' that's already begun. Not going to be pretty. But I see those trends as inevitable, already baked into the geophysical cake on this planet. They look very likely to happen whether we cooperate or not. Though, or course, I can't predict that with absolute, non-drivelling certainty... |