Here's the deal in a nutshell.. Archived Message
Posted by Shyaku on March 6, 2020, 9:08 am, in reply to "Re: thanks. sure you're better of there than here nm"
Its a new disease. This has two implications: (1) We don't know (2) Existing herd immunity is basically non-existent What does (1) mean? We don't know the R0 (infectiousness) We don't know the mortality rate We don't know how the immune system deals with it We don't know its mutation rate. What DO we know? We know it is fairly (at least) contageous. We know it has a mortality rate in the low single digits% We know it has bias towards elderly males with a pre-existing condition So what is the almost-worst case scenario? It manages to infect everyone on the planet and kills 1% of them. That is how many people? 70 million. Then, lets say that because of mutation there is no lasting immmunity. What is the global birth rate? 20 live births per 1000 per year. This means 140 million people are born each year, and if that is matched by new infections, that's approx 1.4 million new fatalities per year. Assuming nothing changes. Can we nip it in the bud? Not if you don't want to, or don't try to. If you do want to, and do try to, like China, you'll find out whether "only doing your best" is good enough. Nobody knows. So yeah, that's about it. - Regards, Shyaku
|
|