- Corona virus is not flu. Archived Message
- Corona virus is not flu. - dan March 6, 2020, 11:36 am
- demographics of corona virus in China - dan March 6, 2020, 11:59 am
- Re: Corona virus is not flu. - Tomski March 6, 2020, 2:47 pm
- demographics of corona virus in China - dan March 6, 2020, 11:59 am
Posted by dan
on March 6, 2020, 11:36 am
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Latest news from Italy https://mailchi.mp/esicm/the-future-of-haemodynamic-monitoring-first-webinar-of-the-year-1009715?e=9e13cba499 It is a cold virus. It is as transmissible as the common cold. 10% of identified positive cases in Italy, where they have been testing a lot of people, end up in ICU. In Wuhan the mortality was much higher than the rest of China because they could not cope with the number of patients needing large amounts of oxygen at the same time. The mortality rate is only low compared with Ebola. It carries 10-20 twenty times higher mortality than the H1N1 flu which almost broke NHS ICU services in 2009, since which point our services have become considerably more stretched. The reason that the increase in the number of cases has slowed is that in China people have been locked down for the past 5 weeks. There have only been about 500 cases in shanghai - a city of 25 million people. However we are two months behind that curve. Unless we contain this illness as Shyaku has pointed out it may become the new seasonal cold. https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/msg/1583485685.html Men of my age and above c. 50 are particularly badly affected. We don't know what the overall mortality will be. I have read above 5% in Wuhan and 0.6% in the rest of China. That is still a very high number compared with flu but compared with Ebola 50% it's miniscule. The difference is the transmission rate much higher because symptomless people are shedding virus. In my opinion, no one knows what is going to happen but the experience of Italian colleagues above suggests that Kit is wrong, and that in the words of the World Health Organisation - this is not a drill. Needlessly risking exposing yourself now seems like a bad idea to me. https://off-guardian.org/category/coronavirus/ |
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