- Re: More realism on Corona virus Archived Message
Posted by Willem
on April 26, 2020, 10:30 pm, in reply to "More realism on Corona virus"
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Thanks. Yes, the WHO study you refer to from last October (see https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf ) has a useful summary in section 2. According to this: 1) contact tracing is not recommended 2) school closures only to be considered for severe pandemics 3) workplace closures only to be considered as a last step for extraordinarily severe pandemics. What constitutes severe (or `high') and extraordinarily severe can be found here https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259392/WHO-WHE-IHM-GIP-2017.2-eng.pdf;jsessionid=357DD06249B82A8C475F71DAC8BD71AE?sequence=1 Are we really in an extraordinarily severe pandemic? If not, why are we destroying our economies? Furthermore, the document makes clear there is significant impact on all sorts of people. "Balance of benefits and harms Workplace measures could potentially reduce transmission by about 20–30%, based on the included studies. A review illustrated that telecommuting without pay would be inequitable, and would impact particularly on self-employed people or low-income families, because they have a higher risk of suffering from severe financial problems as a result of workplace measures (125). Large-scale workplace closures are likely to have substantial economic consequences. However, if school closures are also implemented, workplace closures may avoid the need for some working parents to make other childcare arrangements." Interestingly, there is no mention of lockdowns. From section 6: "Avoiding crowding during moderate and severe epidemics and pandemics is conditionally recommended." |