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    Some country coronavirus trend data Archived Message

    Posted by walter on April 27, 2020, 12:14 am



    A quick explanation of what the numbers mean:

    Each country gradient shown (whether cases or deaths) is determined simply by comparing the most recent six-day period with the preceding one. The idea being to indicate acceleration (gradient>1) or deceleration (gradient<1). (Acceleration is equivalent to exponential growth.)
    These are then multiplied together and square-rooted to give one overall number/measure of acceleration for each country. This, the main outcome of interest, is the last column; it shows a composite measure of acceleration in the gradients of cases and deaths for each country.

    For example Sweden, whose 'newsworthiness' seems mysteriously buoyant, has an index of 1.1 indicating exponential growth. Though this has fallen since six days ago; not accelerating so much but not out of the 'catastrophic' prediction zone yet. Russia numbers still accelerating, not got to grips yet. Peru and Ecuador cases still rising. Ireland worth a mention too.



    Six days ago, seven of the nine countries listed here (selected out of interest a while back) were still apparently 'exponential'. The US (0.92), Turkey(0.82) and Germany(0.79) have now crossed into non-exponential (but borderline), with Sweden, Canada, Brazil and India still in the 'runaway' zone (>1).
    The UK is no longer exponential but disappointing not to have reduced acceleration by more with the lockdown in place for almost 5 weeks. In the last six days while the US's index has dropped a lot (1.34 to 0.92) the UK's has increased slightly.
    Given the duration of the illnesses, there's still a hope that there will be a sudden fall in the UK rate of new post-lockdown cases.

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