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    Some country coronavirus trend data Archived Message

    Posted by walter on May 2, 2020, 11:01 pm


    A quick explanation of what the numbers mean:
    Each country gradient shown (whether cases or deaths) is determined simply by comparing the most recent six-day period with the preceding one. The idea being to indicate acceleration (gradient>1) or deceleration (gradient<1). (Acceleration is equivalent to exponential growth.)
    These are then multiplied together and square-rooted to give one overall number/measure of acceleration for each country. This, the main outcome of interest, is the last column; it shows a composite measure of acceleration in the gradients of cases and deaths for each country.

    The French data have been subject to corrections (23/4) and 29/4, on which the source site Worldometer noted that "the French Government continues to report unreliable and incorrect data on almost a daily basis". Click on France on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

    On 29 Apr the UK govt included home and care home Covid-19 deaths for the 1st time.
    However I adjusted for this by back-spreading to an average daily amount for the adjustment, so that the UK trend wouldn't be disturbed (It wasn't possible to do this for France). This adjustment was not the reason for the UK's gradient returning to nearly 1.

    Countries with a gradient>1 (rightmost figure) continue to be a particular concern especially Brazil, already at a high daily death rate. Russia continues to rise.


    This table show the past combined cases x deaths data for by 'select' group of 8. Though, France's data is beginning to look garbled with all the changes.

    Sweden has moved out of the 'exponential' zone, in which 3 countries still remain. But a combined gradient anywhere near 1 still suggests the rate of cases and/or deaths will be nearly maintained for a while.

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