- Estimating excess mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity in the COVID-19 emergency Archived Message
Posted by Der
on May 8, 2020, 7:32 am
|
Conservative estimate: 6270 excess deaths. Estimating excess mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity in the COVID-19 emergency Preprint · April 2020 Extracts: ...1) patients with cancer may have twice the odds of developing COVID-19 infection (odds ratio=2.31) compared to the rest of the population(28), 2) COVID-19 causes patients with cancer to deteriorate more rapidly (hazard ratio=3.5) compared to those without cancer(11) and 3) COVID-19 case fatality rates are higher in patients with comorbid conditions including CVD, diabetes, hypertension and cancer(29). For cancer patients of working age, unemployment may affect mortality, as we have previously demonstrated across 75 countries(30). Social isolation is also known to represent a mortality risk in cancer(31, 32). Our findings relate to predicted excess mortality in the next 12 months. However, the socioeconomic effects on health from the current epidemic are likely to last for a considerable period beyond one year(33), meaning our figures are likely a significant underestimate... Excess deaths. Based on the available evidence, we estimate an excess of 6,270 excess deaths at 1 year in patients with incident cancers in England. The recorded underlying cause of these excess deaths may be cancer, COVID-19, or comorbidity (such as myocardial infarction), and it is likely that in the COVID-19 emergency, there may be changes in cause-of-death recording. This is why our model uses death from any cause – for which there can be no changes in recording - and which is relevant to multimorbid cancer patients. Our conservative estimate nonetheless represents a significant additional burden of 20%, the total number of cancer deaths annually among incident cases in England is 31,354(34). We present estimates of excess deaths in incident cases, most of whom will be under active surgical, adjuvant or palliative treatments. We also demonstrate excess deaths in those with prevalent cancers, many of whom have survived the initial high-risk period; these data are particularly relevant to ongoing patient management...." PDF: https://ecpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Laicancercovidpreprint2020-04-28v4.pdf |
| Message Thread:
|