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    Re: Thanks Walter. How do you estimate reliability of the raw numbers on which you're working? As you Archived Message

    Posted by walter on May 13, 2020, 12:31 pm, in reply to "Thanks Walter. How do you estimate reliability of the raw numbers on which you're working? As you"

    Thanks Rhis.
    One shouldn't assume precision of course, just consistency...you have a tradeoff between reliability and usefulness. The number cruncher's job is more objective than the politician's.

    The ONS death figures are the most reliable I expect, because they don't purport to explain anything else. They derive their main importance from the well-earned lack of trust in our other institutions, which produce more 'helpful' data but may be loaded for political effect. Yes you have to look to see what the people loading up the train are putting in the boxes.

    Even if there are gaps as there were with the UK death figures - later amended en bloc, which I adjusted for but there will be further gaps - as long as the meaning doesn't change the changes in the numbers can still be interpreted as indicators of change. OTOH there were sudden changes to the French data that worldometer complained about-I didn't try to adjust for them. But most countries haven't done this I believe.

    Fortunately it's not all done in a vaccuum and some people do scrutinize the news and make and float up connections when they find something untoward. The awareness and alertness of the unheralded 'data inspectors' keeps up the quality in the stats and info that is available, as it does in public life (from which inconvenient realities, unfortunately, our rulers and masters can still shield themselves).
    If the country data are all unreliable to a hopeless level then there's not much can be done, but I don't think it is as bad as that.
    You can watch out for correspondence in what you know - eg the now-dipping UK figure agrees with the dip in the ONS graph in time and size.
    Cheers

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