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    Belarus - NATO Lobby Acknowledges That Its Color Revolution Failed Archived Message

    Posted by Tomski on August 27, 2020, 1:47 am

    Belarus - NATO Lobby Acknowledges That Its Color Revolution Failed

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/08/belarus-nato-lobby-acknowledges-that-its-color-revolution-failed.html#comments

    On August 15 we explained why the color revolution in Belarus would fail. Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko had offered President Vladimir Putin of Russia to finally implement the long delayed Union State that will unite Belarus with Russia. In exchange he wanted full Russian backing for shutting down the U.S. led color revolution against him. Putin accepted the deal. In consequence:

    Lukashenko, and his police, will not hang from a pole. Russia will take care of the problem and the Union State will finally be established.
    That does not mean that the color revolution attempt is over. The U.S. and its lackey Poland will not just pack up and leave. But with the full backing from Russia assured, Lukashenko can take the necessary steps to end the riots.

    And that is what he did. Lukashenko continued to allow demonstrations but when on Sunday the demonstrators were directed to storm the presidential palace they saw a theatrical but strong response:

    [T]he Polish-run Nexta Telagram channel (which is the main medium used by the Empire to overthrow Lukashenko) initially called for a peaceful protest, but at the end of the day a call was made to try to take over the main Presidential building. When the rioters (at this point we are dealing with an illegal, violent, attempt to overthrow the state – so I don’t call these people demonstrators) got to the building they were faced with a real “wall” of riot cops in full gear: this (really scary) sight was enough to stop the rioters who stood for a while, and then had to leave.

    Second, Lukashenko did something rather weird, but which makes perfectly good sense in the Belarusian context: he dressed himself in full combat gear, grabbed an AKSU-74 assault rife, dressed his (15 year old!) son also in full combat gear (helmet included) and flew in his helicopter over Minsk and then landed in the Presidential building. They then walked to the riot cops, where Lukashenko warmly thanked them and which resulted in the full police force giving him a standing ovation. To most of us this behavior might look rather outlandish if not outright silly. But in the context of the Belarusian crisis, which is a crisis primarily fought in the informational realm, it makes perfectly good sense.

    The protesters, which police had earlier identified as "rich city kids, the children of rich parents who are fed up with the well-fed life", did not have the stomach to attack a well armed and motivated police force.

    The NATO lobby shop Atlantic Council has also recognized that fact and bemoans it:

    The protesters are generally very sweet, polite, and peaceful. Many are young, middle class Belarusians who work in the country’s booming IT industry and come to rallies dressed in form-fitting hipster ensembles. Unlike events in Kyiv in 2013-14, there is no militant edge to the demonstrations. Indeed, this revolution is so velvet that at times it feels positively sleepy. For better or worse, there is a marked absence of the rough and stalwart young men capable of making liberals uncomfortable or leading the resistance if and when the authoritarian state decides to deploy force.

    Without Nazi stormtroopers like the U.S. used during the 2014 Maidan riots in Ukraine there is no chance to overthrow Lukashenko. With such troops the fight would end in a massacre and Lukashenko would still be the winner. The author rightly concludes:

    [T]he resistance of the Lukashenka regime is strengthening by the day. With Russia now seemingly standing firmly behind Lukashenka, photogenic rallies and patchy strike action will not be enough to bring about historic change.
    It is over. The 'patchy strikes' were never real industrial actions. A few journalist of the Belarus state TV went on a strike. They were unceremoniously fired and replaced with Russian journalists. A few hundred workers at the MTZ Minsk Tractor Works did a walk out. But MTZ has 17,000 employees and the 16,500+ who did not walk out know very well why they still have their jobs. Should Lukashenko fall it is highly likely that their state owned company will be sold off for pennies and immediately 'right sized' meaning that most of them would be out of work. During the last 30 years they have seen that happen in every country around Belarus. There have no urge to experience that themselves.

    On Monday the leader of the earlier MTZ walk out, one Sergei Dylevsky, was arrested while he agitated for more strikes. Dylevsky is a member of the self-proclaimed Coordination Council of the opposition which demands negotiations over the presidency. Other members of the council have been called in for questioning by state investigators over a criminal case against the council.

    Meanwhile the rather hapless opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who falsely claimed to have won the election, is in Lithuania. She is supposed to be an English teacher but has difficulties to read the English text during her begging (vid) for 'western' support. She has already met various 'western' politicians including the General Secretary of the German Christian Democratic Union party of chancellor Angela Merkel, Peter Zeimiag, and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun. Neither will be able to help her.

    With Russia's backing the military, political and economic stability of Belarus is for now guaranteed. Lukashenko will at some point be ousted but that will be at a time and in a way that is convenient for Russia and not because some hapless NED financed IT hipsters try to stage a revolution.

    Posted by b on August 26, 2020 at 17:13 UTC | Permalink

    Comments
    BLM Deaths Across Trump’s America - Dashboard

    Black Lives Matter: Race, Policing, and Protest

    https://libguides.wellesley.edu/blacklivesmatter/statistics

    Will the American Uprising run until election day?

    Posted by: Oui | Aug 26 2020 17:31 utc | 1

    Those of us who have done it know that protests and demonstrations are completely useless. They only serve the government in "look how democratic and forgiving we are."

    Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 26 2020 17:44 utc | 2

    According to the American unconventional warfare manual, a color revolution can only be successful if the target government (TG) is divided, i.e. there's at lest one powerful elite faction awaiting to do the coup at the same time the protests are on the streets, and when there's the military component to "give it a spine".

    A color revolution is, therefore, a military coup with a popular protest façade. But it is never the protesters per se who topple the government, but those two behind-the-scenes elements. That's why color revolutions are not revolutions, but regime change operations or, if you will, coup d'États.

    The Belarus "shoe revolution" failed because, although they had the protesting element (the "colored" element) it lacked the other two ends of the process: a powerful militia and a faction of the Belarusian elite willing to topple Lukashenko. Instead, they had to improvise with a housewife who had (with all the NGO machine) 10% of the valid votes.

    And we can argue the military element is the most important. In Venezuela, for example, the USA had the elite (including Capriles, who had 49% of the votes against Maduro, losing by a hair) and some of the colored element (the middle class from the Maracaibo Lake/Caracas area). Maduro held them out almost exclusively because he had the FANB united on his side and the vast majority of the people, many of them organized in militias (one fisherman dominating and arresting a Jack Ryan the other day).

    On the other side, the Brazilian color revolution was a monumental success because:

    1) The Brazilian Armed Forces already were in American hands (they are since 1957);
    2) The entire Brazilian elite already is pro-American (including most of the Legislative and all of the Judiciary);
    3) Most of the Brazilian people indeed is ideologically pro-capitalist (i.e. liberal, pro-USA).

    In fact, the Workers' Party situation since taking the Presidential Office in 2003 was so frail that one can argue it wasn't even a color revolution, but a pro-USA society expelling a alien element.

    --//--

    Second, Lukashenko did something rather weird, but which makes perfectly good sense in the Belarusian context: he dressed himself in full combat gear, grabbed an AKSU-74 assault rife, dressed his (15 year old!) son also in full combat gear (helmet included) and flew in his helicopter over Minsk and then landed in the Presidential building. They then walked to the riot cops, where Lukashenko warmly thanked them and which resulted in the full police force giving him a standing ovation. To most of us this behavior might look rather outlandish if not outright silly. But in the context of the Belarusian crisis, which is a crisis primarily fought in the informational realm, it makes perfectly good sense.
    It harks back to the Bolshevik tradition, which demands that a communist leader must always lead by example and, in case of hot war, in the front lines. That's why it wasn't weird in the Belarusian context.

    The Bolsheviks themselves lost most of their leadership in the Civil War merely because they led in the front. Trotsky himself led in the front a charge in a desperate attack to defend Petrograd from falling to the Whites. Fidel Castro led his army in the front line during the Bay of Pigs invasion. Stalin lost his son (I think he was a lieutenant) in a Nazi concentration camp. Not to mention all the leaders of the first generation of the CCP, who were all war-forged (yes, even Deng Xiaoping).

    Posted by: vk | Aug 26 2020 18:05 utc | 3

    I sent the earlier MOA article on this to Ben Aris at BNE Intellinews and bet him 100 euros MOA's reporting was more prescient than his. Too bad he didn't reply.

    Posted by: Ingrian | Aug 26 2020 18:09 utc | 4

    Tsikhanouskaya haser BHL photo op as the zenith of her "revolution". Of course, it took place in a foreign country haven, which makes it doubly comical.

    The entire Belarusian Color Revolution is fodder for, and seemingly product of, the Onion and John Cleese.

    If a movie is done, Cleese can interject Guido, a truly comic character.

    This fail in Minsk sadly lacks the personal handiwork of Eliot Abrams, but contains all his masterly failings. Must be a protege in the State Dept. and henchmen in the CIA who crafted this debacle for "democracy".

    Succor for the bozos who ran this show for the US is the Navalny medical emergency. They will ride that donkey for all its worth. And hope everyone will forget Belarus 2020.

    Posted by: Red Ryder | Aug 26 2020 18:10 utc | 5

    I knew it was over once the shills stopped spamming every thread imaginable. The incessant calls for "Democracy and Freedom" were turned off all at once, just like a light switch.

    Posted by: One Too Many | Aug 26 2020 18:14 utc | 6

    When I opened the posting from the Saker cited above, my attention was caught by the picture of Lukushenko carrying an assault rifle, and I immediately thought of the famous picture of Salvador Allende carrying an AK-47 on the day he died.

    Then I read the caption below the picture:

    "Last week Lukashenko said that no other elections, nevermind a coup, will happen as long as he is alive. This time Lukashenko decided to show, symbolically, that he is in charge and that he will die fighting along his son if needed. The message here is clear: “I am no Ianukovich and, if needed, I will die just like Allende died”.

    Posted by: Who Er | Aug 26 2020 18:33 utc | 7

    The degree to which 24/7 Putin-hatred drives greedy Christian Colonial Satanists batshit crazy is hilarious.
    Stupid is as greedy does...?

    Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 26 2020 18:37 utc | 8

    "The New York Post" published a report on the kilometer-long queues for free food in Queens.
    https://nypost.com/2020/08/22/hungry-new-yorkers-line-up-around-the-block-for-free-food/
    They write that the record queue length a couple of months ago was about 28 blocks
    !!!! INSANE !!!!
    What's wrong with you MOA ??!!
    "Endles" posting about the latest Western "Poison"/Belarus Kasperle-Theater of absurdly ruminant nature (and by the way to get a better understanding of Russia/Putin & Co. - while using English - read less the Saker or John Helmer but far more 'Reminiscence of the Future'aka Smoothiex12.blogspot.com & StalkerZone.org)... while in the meantime in your very own country "THINGS" really are falling apart...
    Theoretical, practically, politically & REAL economically with enormous consequences for squillions of very REAL HUMAN BEINGS all across the USA... and yet the whole THEME seems on the sideline concerning your bloging... for whatever rreason ??!!
    Invisible People
    https://www.youtube.com/user/invisiblepeopletv/videos

    https://www.ahla.com/covid-19s-impact-hotel-industry
    Hotel industry survival & millions of jobs lost during covid-19, 2020

    Since the public health issue began escalating in mid-February in the U.S., hotels have already lost more than $46 billion in room revenue. This figure is devastating with hotels currently on pace to lose up to $400 million in room revenue per day based on current occupancy rates and revenue trends.

    STR and Tourism Economics are projecting revenue losses of 50% for the year. Last week, revenues were 45% of what they were last year per STR.The human toll is equally devastating with major hotel managers already reporting significant layoffs and furloughs.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 4.8M hospitality and leisure jobs have been lostsince February.With more than half of direct hotel employees laid off or furloughed, hotel workers are losing more than $1.7B in earnings each week.

    Individual hotels and major operators are projecting occupancies below 20%. At an
    occupancy rate of 35% or lower, hotels may simply close their doors, putting 33,000 small business at immediate risk.STR reported that in May, U.S. hotel operating profits fell by 105% compared to last year, meaning that hoteliers simply have no revenue to pay their costs.

    https://www.ahla.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/compiled_state_job_loss_impact-covid.pdf
    Study Showcases Potential Negative Impact Of Coronavirus Pandemic on Hotel
    Industry Employment
    The hotel industry supports nearly 8.3 million jobs total (direct hotel operations, guest spending, indirect supply-chain and induced), but drastic declines in occupancy rates will lead to massive job losses. Nearly 4 Million Employees Who Work In Or For The Hotel Industry Are Projected To Lose Their Jobs In The Coming Weeks, Or Have Already Been Furloughed.

    https://www.eturbonews.com/579827/hotel-industry-facing-massive-wave-of-foreclosures/
    A new national report shows that the hotel industry is facing a historic wave of
    foreclosures as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to devastate small business hotel
    owners and its workforce

    https://www.ustravel.org/toolkit/covid-19-travel-industry-research
    COVID-19 Travel Industry Research
    "Alice" in Disaster-Land.....

    U.S. restaurant industry facing "mass extinction" due to covid-19 !!
    How many may survive ??
    https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2020/08/13/on-the-brink-of-economic-collapse-covid-19-response-is-killing-the-restaurant-industry-n786677
    'On the Brink' of Economic Collapse: COVID-19 Response Is Killing the Restaurant
    Industry

    It’s not too far of a stretch. The restaurant industry is currently leading all other sectors in terms of closures nationwide, according to data released last month by the customer review platform Yelp. It’s ahead of retail stores, beauty salons, bars and fitness studios.

    https://www.eatthis.com/restaurant-staff-coronavirus/
    According to the National Restaurant Association, 15.6 million people in the U.S. are restaurant industry employees. 10 million people filed for unemployment insurance in the past two weeks, according to the Labor Department—at least half of which are likely those who formerly held jobs in the restaurant industry.
    Restaurant Industry Expects the Loss of 5 to 7 Million Jobs Due to Coronavirus.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2020/08/13/restaurants-coronavirus-outback-steakhouse-ihop-applebees-cheesecake-factory-dennys/3368062001/
    6 national restaurant chains in deepest trouble amid COVID-19 include Outback
    Steakhouse, IHOP and Denny's
    Remember... R.I.P. Pizza-Hut already !

    Posted by: Ashino | Aug 26 2020 18:37 utc | 9

    Posted by: Ashino | Aug 26 2020 18:37 utc | 9

    Oh, bad shit happening to Americans.

    As a non-American, excuse me while I play my smallest violin of the karma kind.

    Posted by: J W | Aug 26 2020 18:49 utc | 10

    Ashino-- The S&P is trading at all time highs today.

    " while in the meantime in your very own country "THINGS" really are falling apart..."


    PS; b lives in Germany

    Posted by: arby | Aug 26 2020 18:51 utc | 11

    Posted by: Ashino | Aug 26 2020 18:37 utc | 9

    Thanks for the reams of Off Topic drivel :-)
    There are 67 Open Threads for irrelevant tosh.
    b and the regulars here are ALL aware that AmeriKKKa is in terminal decline.
    How come you only noticed today?

    Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 26 2020 18:56 utc | 12

    Don Bacon - 2
    Yeah, I guess every generation, every person has to go through this to see it. I've come to the conclusion that pretty much any protest that requires more than 2 demonstrations is doomed and is a sucker's game. If you have to keep on protesting, then you're not taken seriously and never will be, and you just waste your time. If something is massively important enough, the first protest is there to demonstrate your numbers and record your demands; the second protest is a show of force and a warning that either there's some negotiation and deal going on soon, or the next demonstration won't be a nice one. If you have to protest a third time, you should come with guns and rush the parliament or seat of government.
    With hindsight, I've also, alas, come to the conclusion that the Gilets Jaunes were doomed after their first big day; after that, the government was prepared and they were contained; their only non-losing move would've been to raid the Elysee on the very first day, when police didn't know what it would be like and security was low, and come out with Macron's head on a pike. I'm not advocating it, just stating that it was the only single way for them to have anything else than a defeat.

    Posted by: Clueless Joe | Aug 26 2020 19:00 utc | 13

    The lies are failing. Good, very good..

    Posted by: Lozion | Aug 26 2020 19:03 utc | 14

    Tom Luongo massively stubbed his big toe on Belarus in his latest assessment of Outlaw US Empire policy. But just because he got Belarus so wrong, should we dismiss the other content? Luongo puts forth the hypothesis that Trump has unleashed his own version of a Color Revolution on his own State Department:

    "Trump has a bigger problem on his hands, however. The chaos he’s unleashed in his quest to remake European and U.S. relations is something his State Dept. under Pompeo can’t control either. And he won’t be in any position to do anything more than what he’s doing now, win short-term victories and lose the long-term war while global capital abandons the U.S. and moves [E]ast."

    IMO, Luongo should've kept to that thesis and its accompanying idea that Trump is attempting to undermine the UN, or perhaps get the Empire to quit the UN.

    Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 26 2020 19:34 utc | 15

    @ Ashino -

    Yah think? If it wasn't COVID-19 it would have been something else. Everyone here already knows that Amerikkan late-stage capitalism is in deep decline and unsustainable in its present form. Furthermore, have a look at Wall Street - they seem to be doing just fine as the result of all the funny money injections. Maybe some of that cash should have gone to your restaurant and hotel industry, eh? Instead the already rich were bailed out and got even richer.

    Besides, what exactly do you want b to say about it that he hasn't already? Why don't you start your own blog if you have such strong feelings about the content here and insist on polluting threads with off-topic whining?

    Posted by: _K_C_ | Aug 26 2020 19:41 utc | 16

    6

    I thought it was over the moment Putin brushed the dust off the Union State agreement.

    Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2020 19:44 utc | 17

    And that's what you get when you take short cuts

    Step 1. Destroy a country economically to depopulate it and create a sub-population of Orcs
    Step 2. Hire snipers.
    Step 3. THEN you declare your sock puppet the winner of an election in the Color revolution, make them a member of NATO of your now vacant country, install missile bases, drones and Chechen terrorists.

    Covid must be taking a toll on the A-Team of Neocons.

    Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Aug 26 2020 19:44 utc | 18

    A few journalist of the Belarus state TV went on a strike. They were unceremoniously fired and replaced with Russian journalists.
    Hmm, I've heard otherwise. There is information that, on the contrary, Lukashenko forgives(!) those Belarusian journalists who rebelled against him, and takes them back to work (it is difficult to imagine a more stupid step).

    The odious Minister Makei, like other pro-Westerners (who in fact organized the Maidan attempt in Belarus), retained their posts. Lukashenko did not purge personnel and did not identify traitors. Consequently, they will continue their subversive activities and will interfere with the implementation of the Union State.

    Western (primarily Polish) NGOs and mass media have not been liquidated (or at least limited).

    So far, there are no signs that Lukashenko is going to change his favorite (and so fatal both for him and for Belarus) "multi-vector policy". I do not think that we will see real shifts towards the implementation of the Union State. Rather the opposite.

    Posted by: alaff | Aug 26 2020 19:52 utc | 19

    As b said, it was never likely that Belarus was going to go to the west. The question is whether it's going to remain independent, or be integrated into Russia.

    Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 26 2020 20:02 utc | 20

    Posted by: Ashino | Aug 26 2020 18:37 utc | 9

    Have you ever heard of the side effects of capitalism? You should have known that the social drain is always downward ... because you see there will be no rich who will suffer in this situation while many normal people will be left without a job ... but don't worry , what's important in all this is to blame the communists.


    Posted by: LuBa | Aug 26 2020 20:13 utc | 21

    Laguerre

    there's a bit on the Union State agreement at wikipedia.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

    This is what Russia and Belarus are using at the moment along with other agreements. It was signed back in the late nineties so perhaps they will make a few changes to it.

    https://tass.com/world/1192339
    "Union State Parliamentary Assembly denounces meddling in Belarus’s internal affairs
    It underscores that Alexander Lukashenko is the president-elect and that the vote took place in compliance with the country’s Constitution"

    Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2020 20:22 utc | 22

    Laguerre @20--

    Here's the Union State Portal whose Russian version is current while the English version lags about 3 weeks behind. It's difficult to get English language info on this topic that isn't massaged by the CIA or MI6, thus the need to read both Russian and Belarus sources. One Union model is the USA which is a federal, not unitary, construct, with states having a small amount of independence but don't have overall control of federal policies--security, monetary, fiscal, foreign, etc. I understand this version between Russia and Belarus to be similar--as I wrote earlier, Belarus would return to the SSR status it had within the USSR, although it was awarded a spot in the UN after WW2. The potential exists for other states to join. For example, the Donbass could become integrated, which makes sense to me.

    Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 26 2020 20:30 utc | 23

    Without Nazi stormtroopers like the U.S. used during the 2014 Maidan riots in Ukraine there is no chance to overthrow Lukashenko.

    Posted by b on August 26, 2020 at 17:13 UTC | Permalink

    Let me fix that for you, B:

    Without organized militant elements like [insert every freaking revolution in history] there is no chance for the people to overthrow the state.

    At some point, this sort of partisan cheerleaing cum "analysis" will crumble under the weight of its own contradictions.

    Posted by: conspiracy-theorist | Aug 26 2020 20:31 utc | 24

    Israel Shamir's entertaining take on it all: https://www.unz.com/ishamir/belarus-on-the-brink/

    Posted by: Shakesvshav | Aug 26 2020 20:38 utc | 25

    Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2020 20:22 utc | 22

    Everyone agrees Lukashenko's regime is reaching its end. The question is what happens next.

    The West doesn't seem to have the power to impose a colour revolution as happened in Ukraine. Belarus are Russians in most views. Will it end with integration, or a new "independent" state. I have no idea.

    Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 26 2020 20:42 utc | 26

    @ Posted by: alaff | Aug 26 2020 19:52 utc | 19

    Your article from Vesti is likely a chimera.

    First, it mentions a bunch of journalists (400 in total) from the State Media have received death threats are coming back to work or are resuming work (I machine translated the article, so I'm not sure of the precise meaning). It never states which political position said journalists defended (they could be pro-Lukashenko/government journalists, receiving death threats from the color revolutionaries).

    Then, it makes a quantum leap and spits out the information that 40 Belarusian unionized journalists have applied to leave the country (the data comes from the Journalists' Union). It is heavily implied they are anti-Lukashenko journalists.

    Then, it makes another quantum leap, quoting the chairman of the union, who stated that some journalists wrote letters of resignation, stating they are exiting because they are anti-Lukashenko. It never states those are the same 40 journalists who applied to leave the country (or how many of them, for that matter), or that those are the same Belarusian journalists who have been receiving death threats (but obviously didn't resume work in their previous jobs, as they resigned).

    Then... another quantum leap. The article then suddenly mentions some "reports" (from whom? By whom?) stating that "they" (the journalists) made "the decision" (which one?) on an emotional state and are reconsidering their resignations after cooling off their heads. Presumably, they are referring to the journalists who wrote the letters of resignation, but this is not clear.

    All those information apparently came from the same person, Andrei Krivosheev, chairman of the Journalists' Union. It all indicates they came from a single speech or report of his authorship. But it is clipped in the Vesti article in a way that is confusing, but tending to a pro-protests bias, as if they were trying to twist his statement in order to force a "journalists being persecuted by the State" narrative.

    Posted by: vk | Aug 26 2020 20:46 utc | 27

    Laguerre

    From what I understand, the Union state agreement merges a number of things, but Belarus and Russia retained independent governments and foreign policies.

    My thought is Belarus would have to join the Russian federation at some stage, losing independent foreign policy but retaining reasonable independence in domestic affairs. Something along the lines of Chechnya.

    Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2020 20:49 utc | 28

    ashino #9

    Nothing wrong with MoA ! You do understand that this is a global blog and our host is German. So comments like "meanwhile in your very own country" etc are puerile and many of us have no interest in the dieing wheezes of the USA.

    The funeral process underway in the USA is minor compared to millions of funerals CAUSED BY THE USA throughout the world in the past 80 years. You are welcome to stay fixated on that one funeral.

    We don't follow and many don't even read an occasional link to the WAPO or NYT or any of the USA gutter press.
    b will reliably report and save us the agony of reading tosh.

    If you care about your country try bogging down some other blog with your navel gazing - it won't distract most of us here at the bar of infinite wisdom.

    There is the rest of the world to consider.

    Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 26 2020 20:51 utc | 29

    Belarus has been turned into a focal point of geopolitics, the outcome of this latest U.S. mis-adventure I'm sure will have profound ramifications. Thanks b for your sharp and insightful analysis, on par with your most excellent Syria, Skripal and other reporting that won me over to MoA as a regular.

    It would be interesting to know if the failing Outlaw Empire (thanks karlof1 for that term) had reasons to hope for a different outcome of that gamble. On the face of it it looks either desperate or ignorant - to think that Russia which has foiled coups in places as far and surrounded by US stooges such as Venezuela and Syria (and possibly more), would not intervene successfully next door in a Russian-speaking country.

    Posted by: Leser | Aug 26 2020 20:55 utc | 30

    Further indications that indeed western colour revolution plans have fizzled. Note the tonal change absent the threats and belligerence in this Canadian communique:

    Aug 26, 2020: Joint Statement by European Union High Representative/VP Josep Borrell and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, Francois-Philippe Champagne

    https://twitter.com/CanadaFP/status/1298682679324545027

    "...It is now urgent to launch an open and constructive national dialogue to find a way forward in Belarus."

    Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 26 2020 21:00 utc | 31

    karlof1 23

    Thanks for putting up the Union State website link.

    Laguerre This is the webpage showing the Union State agreement. I would guess this governs how they are operating together at the moment.
    https://soyuz.by/dogovor-o-sozdanii-soyuznogo-gosudarstva

    Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2020 21:02 utc | 32

    Tikhanovskaya disproves reports of opposition’s plans to shut down borders with Russia

    Here's a universal truth about politics: victories unite, defeats divide. It's human nature.

    Posted by: vk | Aug 26 2020 21:09 utc | 33

    @Red Ryder #5:

    If a movie is done, Cleese can interject Guido, a truly comic character.
    No, no, no. Guaidó must be played by Adriano Celentano.

    Posted by: S | Aug 26 2020 21:12 utc | 34

    @Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 26 2020 20:51 utc | 29:

    The people suffering in the US are generally working and lower class, and frequently immigrants and/or people of color, not 'The Masters of the Universe'.
    I guess "The funeral process underway in the USA is minor compared to millions of funerals CAUSED BY THE USA throughout the world in the past 80 years" is how statements of solidarity read when they come from sociopaths.

    Posted by: Sidney Caesar | Aug 26 2020 21:34 utc | 35

    The Cavalry comes to the rescue of poor defenseless Belarus. The 'Human Rights (for some) Foundation' has formed the 'Belarus Solidarity Fund' - with either $106,957 (38 donors) or 1,397,340 EUR raised depending on who tells the tale:

    https://defendbelarus.funraise.org/

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/2658305/2658305_900.png

    Posted by: Ken Garoo | Aug 26 2020 21:38 utc | 36

    "Without Nazi stormtroopers like the U.S. used during the 2014 Maidan riots in Ukraine there is no chance to overthrow Lukashenko."
    So why didn't the Nazis and the snipers show up? Did the FSB and KGB intercept them.

    Posted by: Johny Conspiranoid | Aug 26 2020 21:48 utc | 37

    The Belarus color revolution was an after thought, not a plan. It can't really have been said to have failed.
    Venezuela again not Ukraine.
    Madam Guaido's wikipedia entry was created after she stood for President. Even Random Guaido in Venezuela had a wikipedia entry 2 weeks before Trump named him president (though he still hasn't stood for it).

    Posted by: M Droy | Aug 26 2020 21:52 utc | 38

    One Too Many @ 6

    I knew it was over ....
    To be honest it never really started. Looking at the protests there were never the numbers required to bring about change. Mostly, the protesters were in the thousands and one that I saw pictures of was probably in the tens of thousands but never in the hundreds of thousand and that is what you need to bring about the possibility of changes in a compact city of 2 million like Minsk.

    Also, I think most people are wise to the various methods used to make a crowd look larger than it is and I noticed this time that many of the videos of protests on Twitter, etc. were taken while quickly scanning from side to side and not allowing time for viewers to make a decent estimate of the numbers present.
    Posted by: Ghost Ship | Aug 26 2020 22:53 utc | 39

    thanks b... good read....

    i think cia - ned and the state dept just need to fancy up the wikpedia page for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya... maybe they can organize a special round table with random guaido and whoever abrams and etc are working on and call it the 2021 puppet round table group..sell it to the western msm - maybe even see if crystia freeland is available to be one of the main speakers at the event... maybe trump or biden - which ever one wins - can be a guest of honour at this special round table meet and greet too!

    Posted by: james | Aug 26 2020 22:55 utc | 40

    @VK 3, Compare those socialists leading from the front to Trump. You gotta be special kind of brainwashed to believe an anthropologically inferior personality type like Trump would do anything but continue destruction of material conditions for everyday americans. The notion of Trump’s paradise lost, a fantastic Never-Never land of economic prosperity and good health - that never was either on land or sea. Trump’s globalist tax scam kept the Wall Street bubble going for two years with record ballooning deficits and no public benefit for masses of deplorables. The repo crisis of September 2019 already signaled collapsing of his bubble, but (after over ultimatums and pressure from Trump) fed countered with $1 Trillion per week in overnight loans for his financial parasite friends. The United States was in freefall even before pandemic began. A Dorian Gray individual is not saving western civilization or waging war against globalist deep state to save the american republic. Trump is probably their best double agent, openly negociating access to chinese financial markets for globalist firms (see article). To top it off, his administration just socialized 3 to 4 trillions dollars to Wall Street with no oversight in latest pandemic bailout. He's basically destroying your country and children future economic position by giving a free endowment to financial parasites who will reengineer the whole of society at expense of hoi polloi. How that worked out for Weimar Germany ? We know what followed. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I don't see how destroying pre-requisite material conditions for freedom, make him suitable to lead anything ? Is this how one saves middle class deplorables, by paying it forward and scheming with his ''friends'' to steal pension funds from working class americans ? Nowadays conservatives have shown their true colours, sadly they don't believe in anything... Hating blacks, hispanics and boogeyman antifa won't make them more competitive vis a vis marxist China and Collectivist Russia. Can't fix cultish and stupid.

    Posted by: Horatio | Aug 26 2020 22:57 utc | 41

    The enforcement of the Union Treaty means the dismantling of the state property left in Balrus; the maximum feasible termination of the social wage left; the absorption of any or all state assets into Moscow's central government; the replacement of most personnel with either oligarch's men or Putin loyalists; the incidental termination of Lukashenko; the possible partition of Belarus with the rabid reactionaries in Poland and Lithuania, if Putin tries vainly to avoid yet another endless war to match the Donbass and Syria. Putin is neither so smart nor so brave as his press would say.

    If Lukashenko sticks to what principles he's operated by, he will resist the Yeltsinization of Belarus by Yelstin's loyal heir Putin, and will likely be abandoned to the newly reforming movement, already being revamped with new pro-fascist element who will not much appreciate invocations of Allende.

    Posted by: steven t johnson | Aug 26 2020 23:00 utc | 42

    yelstins loyal heir putin..... and little stevie is elliot abrams loyal heir... the transition team just hasn't announced it yet... you can take that to the donkey bank too!

    Posted by: james | Aug 26 2020 23:09 utc | 43

    "She has already met various 'western' politicians including the General Secretary of the German Christian Democratic Union party of chancellor Angela Merkel, Peter Zeimiag, and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun. Neither will be able to help her."

    Biegun is currently Deputy State Secretary, but he met with Russian Foreign Minister when he 'came' to Moscow on 25 August.

    https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4299276

    Biegun made the claim, as reported by Lavrov "We heard the US confirm its position that it is not interested in creating an artificial crisis around the situation in Belarus."

    He drew Biegun's attention to "...initiative of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko...of implementing Constitutional reform as a foundation for consolidating society and the holding of subsequent elections for president, parliament and local government authority. I believe a hand has been extended to all those who are interested in a stable and united Belarus. Of course, this should be considered by the opposition, and our Western partners, that are leading the opposition now."

    Lavrov structured the last sentence so it could be read two ways, deliberately, I suspect, to allow the interpretation that Western 'partners' should pay attention to Lukasheko's concessions.

    These concessions include constitutional reform, and we can be sure such changes will be modelled on the Russian constitutional changes, incorporating the US system or requiring foreign NGOs to report extensively on their holdings,financing, property etc. Those attempting to interfere in Govt are thrown out, quite rightly (altho in USA Saudi Arabia and Israel are functionally exempt, it appears).

    His final remarks were the most important:

    "We appealed to these countries, primarily the US and the EU, to pay attention to those circles, such as in Poland and Lithuania, that are emphatically expressing their discontent with normalisation in Belarus and are trying to provoke violent actions in order to cause a respective response from law enforcement.

    We consider such actions dangerous, and I think Mr Biegun heard our serious warnings."

    This last recalls Pres. Putins comment on unveiling hypersonic missiles in response to USA seeking nuclear 'first strike' ability against Russia by deploying anti missile systems to block any Russian retaliatory resonse. He said along the lines 'they didn't listen to us then. Maybe they will listen now'.

    So Lavrov is NOT saying USA is 'taking on board' Russias warnings. He is saying that USA HAS BEEN TOLD very clearly there will be a geopolitical blocking response that will not suits USA ambitions to surround Russia's land borders with an extreme close proximity ring of nuclear weapons.

    Posted by: powerandpeople | Aug 26 2020 23:14 utc | 44

    @ Posted by: steven t johnson | Aug 26 2020 23:00 utc | 42

    That's why the Union State is not a reality yet. That's why Lukashenko risked everything by opening up to the West. It can only be because of the voracity of the Russian oligarchs.

    But there's a tiny ray of hope: China. If Russia can settle on a Chinese model of socialism, then Belarus can open up (albeit gradually, very slowly). It's different when you have the system ready, as a palpable reality, where you just need to copy - you don't need to be like Lenin, trying desperately to educate and convince millions of illiterate peasants in the 1910s. It's much easier when the formula is ready and in the showcase, for everybody to see.

    Posted by: vk | Aug 26 2020 23:19 utc | 45

    to Horsewhisperer a 12

    "b and the regulars here are ALL aware that AmeriKKKa is in terminal decline.
    How come you only noticed today?"

    Decline: the top layer of power is collapsing, but Am is a multi-layered federation. Illinois' (Chicago etc)
    bonds are rated "junk", but the SF Bay Area is a power house. the terms of federation are the next issue.
    track the state level, and Paul Jay and Larry Wilkerson. foreign policy is a wreck, so is the culture.

    Posted by: bogdan | Aug 26 2020 23:29 utc | 46

    powerandpeople @44--

    I tend to agree with your parsing of Lavrov. It's been several months now that the Outlaw US Empire's been read the riot act by both China and Russia, who are now both engaging in pushback. Note the change in attitude in Syria where the Outlaw US Empire is in violation of the law--of course, it's an Outlaw--and Outlaw troops are now being pushed around by all, not just Russians. China's launch of two carrier killer missiles in response to continual provocations is also new. Clearly, the two Strategic Partners are acting in concert. And their message is directed to those behind Trump, who are also those behind Biden: Things are going to change and you're going to be the one doing the changing is the message.

    Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 26 2020 23:29 utc | 47

    I just came to leave this link > https://www.ned.org/region/central-and-eastern-europe/belarus-2019/


    NED donations to Belarus for....

    "Increase local and regional civic engagement","expand an online depository of publications not readily accessible in the country, including works on politics, civil society, history, human rights, and independent culture","To defend and support independent journalists and media","To foster youth civic engagement","training democratic parties and movements in effective advocacy campaigns"

    Posted by: Chico | Aug 26 2020 23:31 utc | 48

    b: "Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who falsely claimed to have won the election, is in Lithuania. She is supposed to be an English teacher but has difficulties to read the English text during her begging (vid) for 'western' support."

    S.T. has some trouble making speeches in Russian too, with unnatural pauses etc. If her English is similar, then slow speaking with numerous pauses and avoiding complicated terms may be OK in teaching foreign language with weird grammar and difficult phonetics. I recall my increasingly dispirited English teacher in high school: Teacher: "think", girl: "sink", teacher: "think", girl "tink", and that repeated like 10 times.

    -----

    steven t johnson: "The enforcement of the Union Treaty means the dismantling of the state property left in Balarus; the maximum feasible termination of the social wage left; the absorption of any or all state assets into Moscow's central government; ..." I would need a credible link for that. EU has anti-subsidy rules etc., but state owned manufacturing companies exist in Russia, say, Rosatom (nuclear reactor and related products), United Aircraft Corporation, Gazprom, and quite a few other. Moreover, I seriously doubt if Union Treaty is anywhere as prescriptive as EU rules imposed on members and non-members like Ukraine. Putin is near fanatical about fiscal discipline, and lax about minimal wage (like Germany, if I recall, convenient if many workers are foreign), and was eliminating subsidies for Belarus. If anything, with Belarus more formally following Russia, the fiscal pressure from Moscow would relax. For example, Crimea does not pay for its infrastructure projects like the bridge, railroad and new highways.

    On the other hand, economic and social consequences of incorporating Belarus to EU and NATO would be very severe.

    Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 26 2020 23:36 utc | 49


    sorry for the oversize. plus, the Russian KGB map is v useful. Am decline is a work in progress.

    Posted by: bogdan | Aug 26 2020 23:44 utc | 50

    Piotr Berman @ 49:

    Svetlana Tikhanovskaya may be having trouble with a teleprompter going too quickly or placed too far for her to read.

    Posted by: Jen | Aug 27 2020 0:12 utc | 51

    The failure of the Color Revolution in Belarus demonstrates that such actions can never be done on the cheap.

    Color Revolutions require at least US$5 billion or whatever the current equivalent would be in today's money after being adjusted for inflation and other effects of incessant money-printing by the US Treasury. Plus you probably need someone of the calibre and menace of Victoria Nuland to carry it out properly, actually going to the place where the Color Revolution is occurring with loads of cookies and pastries to hand out to people and yakking to the US Ambassador in Minsk on the phone about who's going to be Prime Minister and who's going to be Foreign Minister, and so on and so forth.

    As VK @3 says, it would have helped also if the US had cultivated a bunch of oligarchs like Khodorkovsky in Russia, Timoshenko in Ukraine and Leopoldo López Mendoza in Venezuela to meddle in national politics and pose as Belarus' legitimate political opposition. Instead the US and the EU thought they could woo Alexander Lukashenko to their side. As long as he appeared to be making all the right moves, they got lazy and neglected to nurture potential faux opposition candidates and groups until too late.

    The result is that Lukashenko can point to nearly 30 years of political, economic and social stability as his record as President of Belarus, and that is a record that will be very hard for any political opposition to overcome.

    Posted by: Jen | Aug 27 2020 0:25 utc | 52

    At the linke that Chico @ 48 posted (thanks, Chico!), I found this:

    Increasing Party Capacity In Citizen Outreach And Issue Advocacy

    National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI)

    $300,000

    To enable a broad, diverse group of political activists representing democratic political parties and movements to conduct effective and systematic citizen outreach. The institute will assist political leaders in utilizing important pre- and post-election periods to carry out constructive citizen outreach by training democratic parties and movements in effective advocacy campaigns.

    $300,000 is the largest single donation made by the NED in Belarus in 2019. Does anyone else think this is actually quite a small amount to spend on what presumably should be a medium-large group of political activists (say at least 15 individuals)? Some if not most of that grant money must represent their salaries and living expenses, not to mention also rent money and money for office equipment if they need a place to gather and work together.
    Posted by: Jen | Aug 27 2020 0:38 utc

    Message Thread:

    • Belarus - NATO Lobby Acknowledges That Its Color Revolution Failed - Tomski August 27, 2020, 1:47 am