Re: Stanford University on lockdowns Archived Message Posted by Itchy Bootmore on January 12, 2021, 11:54 am, in reply to "Re: Stanford University on lockdowns" Hello Dan With respect, I'm not sure that is what the study says either - within the limits of the study it concludes that Most Restrictive NPIs (Non Pharmaceutical Interventions) did not contribute substantially to bending the curve of increase in new cases and therefore offered no significant benefit compared to LEAST restrictive NPI's. It is attempting to isolate out the effect of the enacted restrictions. Hence.... measuring how useless or useful a 'lockdown' is. That is of course not to deny that test, trace, isolate, quarantine and treat (which is what the UK should have done from before March 23rd) is not the way to go - it is. To compare a working test and trace system was being as effective as a light lockdown however is not a comparison I have gleaned from the study data. In fact, I would suggest most if not all countries are (and were at the period studied) operating test n trace, though of course not all test and trace operations may be equal. However, the study repeatedly states 'Under no comparison is there evidence of reduction in case growth rates from mrNPIs, in any country'. However, it does conclude that NPIs do have an effect on reducing case growth. I am paraphrasing due to time, but therefore it can be said for the study sample that includes the UK, US, France, Germany, Netherlands, Iran, Italy, Spain, South Korea - "In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures." I would submit that the more targeted PH interventions would have included ensuring adequate bed space / hospitals, equipment and staff (ie NOT 40 years of cuts, outsourcing, hospital closures, privatisation, wage freezes or cuts, extraction of profit etc), adequate & effective testing, tracing, isolation, quarantine & treatment of the population (NOT £22Billion to Serco for a useless App) etc. Together with other least restrictive NPIs (eg: the closure of business where there is an outbreak, as would be one for cholera, typhus, TB, Legionaires Disease etc?) we may have been in better position than the current fiasco. The authoritarian measures the Tories are proposing are meant (in my opinion) as a panacea to a frightened population to allow capitalism to keep making profits and to disguise the complete incompetence, uncaring ineptness and incapability of the UK political class to deal with this pandemic (+ pots and pans for Spitfires?). They resort to ever restrictive measures to disguise their blunders and disguise the scars and wounds that neoliberal capitalism and laissez-faire pro-privatisation economics have inflicted on the UK Health Service and associated services and civil society - all promoted by the Tory and Nu-Lab Govts and let's face it, we're here because people voted for it. The result being you and your colleagues Dan are being thrown into the bear pit with ever increasing casualties and stories of loss and sorrow and the commensurate exhaustion, trauma and dispiritedness that must go with it.. And - I know we are where we are. I know you and your colleagues are having to deal with it all TODAY. Hindsight is wonderful etc. But it remains a pertinent and interesting study, nonetheless.... Message Thread: | This response ↓ Stanford University on lockdowns - Itchy Bootmore January 11, 2021, 4:11 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - dan January 11, 2021, 6:14 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 6:33 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Willem January 11, 2021, 6:38 pm I've been advocating a South Korea like policy for almost a year whilst you've been posting - dan January 11, 2021, 6:59 pm Re: I've been advocating a South Korea like policy for almost a year whilst you've been posting - Gerard January 11, 2021, 7:39 pm are these "videos by charlatans"? - rippon January 11, 2021, 8:38 pm Yes and yes - dan January 11, 2021, 9:55 pm Dan, you've got more patience than me....nm - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 10:09 pm Re: Yes and yes - Willem January 11, 2021, 11:05 pm That requires a strongly authoritarian regime potentially for years, even decades. - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 11:07 pm Re: Yes and yes - dan January 11, 2021, 11:46 pm you have a good idea of how many we're killing with the covd restrictions? - rippon January 12, 2021, 10:34 am Re: you have a good idea of how many we're killing with the covd restrictions? - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:23 pm Re: Yes and yes - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:26 pm faith in vaccines - rippon January 12, 2021, 1:57 pm Re: faith in vaccines - dan January 12, 2021, 9:17 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 9:08 am Good point (both)....nm - Keith-264 January 12, 2021, 9:13 am Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 10:44 am Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 12, 2021, 11:38 am Re: Yes and yes - Ken Waldron January 12, 2021, 12:31 pm Re: Yes and yes - Keith-264 January 12, 2021, 1:34 pm Ken gets it right. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:41 am Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 2:53 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 6:42 pm Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 12, 2021, 10:56 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:11 am Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 13, 2021, 10:48 am Re: Yes and yes - Keith-264 January 13, 2021, 2:00 pm Derek finally realizes white guilt works either way, so smallpox is no longer heretical. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:45 am derek goes from certaintty to fence sitting. Now to the next post .. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:44 am Re: derek goes from certaintty to fence sitting. Now to the next post .. Nm - dereklane January 14, 2021, 2:19 pm Re: Yes and yes - dan January 12, 2021, 9:06 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:14 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 13, 2021, 10:36 pm You're on the right track. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:57 am Its actually not such a stretch, ya know. - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:55 am Aha! :-) Dan also realizes white guilt works either way :-):-) - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:48 am Bla,bla,bla, inference. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:43 am Off to the moon ..nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:38 am Christ, people will say literally anything.. - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:37 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 12, 2021, 9:01 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:19 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 13, 2021, 10:19 pm You don't - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:40 am Or merely wrong? - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 10:04 pm Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Mary January 11, 2021, 10:09 pm Good news - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 10:15 pm Wishing for the best, Keith. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:59 am Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 10:17 pm Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Jackie January 11, 2021, 10:30 pm Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - dan January 11, 2021, 10:38 pm Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - pete-g January 11, 2021, 11:53 pm Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - Mary January 12, 2021, 6:58 am glad to hear it Mary! (nm) - Ian M January 12, 2021, 11:26 am Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - brooks January 12, 2021, 11:31 am Live long and prosper, Mary. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 6:02 am good news, Mary (nm) - margo January 12, 2021, 10:53 am Great news! nm - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:30 pm Glad you had the confirmation ... - Tomski January 12, 2021, 4:01 pm Re: Glad you had the confirmation ... - Mary January 12, 2021, 10:37 pm Re: Glad you had the confirmation ... - Tomski January 12, 2021, 11:28 pm Thinking about Fukushima ... - Tomski January 13, 2021, 12:22 am If the dog had it, that clinches it : ) - Tomski January 13, 2021, 11:14 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Itchy Bootmore January 12, 2021, 11:54 am Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - dan January 12, 2021, 9:56 pm   Searching