Re: Stanford University on lockdowns Archived Message Posted by dan on January 12, 2021, 9:56 pm, in reply to "Re: Stanford University on lockdowns" Thanks IB. I agree with the entirety of your second paragraph. I've been advocating a South Korean model all along. There are a so many things we should be doing other than locking down. In their absence we do get what we've got now. As for the paper it's not possible to draw conclusions about the lockdown severity if the other conditions differ so dramatically. I was being generous to them. They acknowledge that other social measures might alter outcome but then focus almost exclusively on the severity of the lockdown. When comparing a difference between two groups - light and heavy lockdown - they should try and evaluate what confounding factors might explain their findings. So whether they wrote it into the paper or not anyone reading it should understand that comparing the difference between france and korea is a comparison between hard lock down/inadequate test and trace and light lockdown/effective test and trace. The differences between the two groups might all be explained by the testing and isolation - the korean's were super effective - the french like us have been poor - and nothing to do with the severity of the lockdown. Without that analysis I'd say the conclusions are hard to support. There also seems to be a significant selection bias. How did they come to use only those 10 countries all of which have failed to control the virus other than they set up the conditions to get the result they wanted. Why not include New Zealand, Vietnam, China in the analysis? If the authors really wanted to demonstrate the effects of lockdown sever and light why not compare sweden with norway and finland. Those countries seem much more closely matched. cheers, dan Message Thread: | This response ↓ Stanford University on lockdowns - Itchy Bootmore January 11, 2021, 4:11 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - dan January 11, 2021, 6:14 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 6:33 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Willem January 11, 2021, 6:38 pm I've been advocating a South Korea like policy for almost a year whilst you've been posting - dan January 11, 2021, 6:59 pm Re: I've been advocating a South Korea like policy for almost a year whilst you've been posting - Gerard January 11, 2021, 7:39 pm are these "videos by charlatans"? - rippon January 11, 2021, 8:38 pm Yes and yes - dan January 11, 2021, 9:55 pm Dan, you've got more patience than me....nm - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 10:09 pm Re: Yes and yes - Willem January 11, 2021, 11:05 pm That requires a strongly authoritarian regime potentially for years, even decades. - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 11:07 pm Re: Yes and yes - dan January 11, 2021, 11:46 pm you have a good idea of how many we're killing with the covd restrictions? - rippon January 12, 2021, 10:34 am Re: you have a good idea of how many we're killing with the covd restrictions? - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:23 pm Re: Yes and yes - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:26 pm faith in vaccines - rippon January 12, 2021, 1:57 pm Re: faith in vaccines - dan January 12, 2021, 9:17 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 9:08 am Good point (both)....nm - Keith-264 January 12, 2021, 9:13 am Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 10:44 am Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 12, 2021, 11:38 am Re: Yes and yes - Ken Waldron January 12, 2021, 12:31 pm Re: Yes and yes - Keith-264 January 12, 2021, 1:34 pm Ken gets it right. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:41 am Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 2:53 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 12, 2021, 6:42 pm Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 12, 2021, 10:56 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:11 am Re: Yes and yes - Ian M January 13, 2021, 10:48 am Re: Yes and yes - Keith-264 January 13, 2021, 2:00 pm Derek finally realizes white guilt works either way, so smallpox is no longer heretical. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:45 am derek goes from certaintty to fence sitting. Now to the next post .. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:44 am Re: derek goes from certaintty to fence sitting. Now to the next post .. Nm - dereklane January 14, 2021, 2:19 pm Re: Yes and yes - dan January 12, 2021, 9:06 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:14 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 13, 2021, 10:36 pm You're on the right track. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:57 am Its actually not such a stretch, ya know. - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:55 am Aha! :-) Dan also realizes white guilt works either way :-):-) - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:48 am Bla,bla,bla, inference. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:43 am Off to the moon ..nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:38 am Christ, people will say literally anything.. - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:37 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 12, 2021, 9:01 pm Re: Yes and yes - dereklane January 13, 2021, 9:19 am Re: Yes and yes - dan January 13, 2021, 10:19 pm You don't - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:40 am Or merely wrong? - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 10:04 pm Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Mary January 11, 2021, 10:09 pm Good news - Keith-264 January 11, 2021, 10:15 pm Wishing for the best, Keith. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 5:59 am Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Ken Waldron January 11, 2021, 10:17 pm Re: are these "videos by charlatans"? - Jackie January 11, 2021, 10:30 pm Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - dan January 11, 2021, 10:38 pm Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - pete-g January 11, 2021, 11:53 pm Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - Mary January 12, 2021, 6:58 am glad to hear it Mary! (nm) - Ian M January 12, 2021, 11:26 am Re: Absolutely amazing news - sorry you've been through that awful stress - - brooks January 12, 2021, 11:31 am Live long and prosper, Mary. Nm - Shyaku January 14, 2021, 6:02 am good news, Mary (nm) - margo January 12, 2021, 10:53 am Great news! nm - Gerard January 12, 2021, 1:30 pm Glad you had the confirmation ... - Tomski January 12, 2021, 4:01 pm Re: Glad you had the confirmation ... - Mary January 12, 2021, 10:37 pm Re: Glad you had the confirmation ... - Tomski January 12, 2021, 11:28 pm Thinking about Fukushima ... - Tomski January 13, 2021, 12:22 am If the dog had it, that clinches it : ) - Tomski January 13, 2021, 11:14 pm Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - Itchy Bootmore January 12, 2021, 11:54 am Re: Stanford University on lockdowns - dan January 12, 2021, 9:56 pm   Searching