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    I canít help feeling heís at his best when he sticks to military matters Archived Message

    Posted by Shyaku on July 25, 2022, 10:22 am, in reply to "Five months into the Special Military Operation Ė a summary"

    That was a long article, I read it when he first posted it, and a lot of it seemed to be recycled wishful thinking. I basically agree with what he says, but I think the hallmark of an insightful analysis is the ability to make good predictions. It is at the prediction phase that he seems to go fuzzy along the lines of Ďits hard to know where this will all endí (but of course the world will be an entirely different place, blabla), and that fuzziness was a kind of a red flag for me. He spent many years (especially the early years, 2014/15) saying that if Russia really did invade, it would be very obvious because it would all be over in approximately 24 hours. So he is not immune to wishful thinking. To be fair, the 24 hrs scenario was an easy mistake to make, and one made by many others including Orlov, but I thought that after a 3 month break he might have had some deeper insights. Anyway, I am glad he is back and wish him well.

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