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    Re: Welcome to the oil death spiral Archived Message

    Posted by Ian M on November 18, 2022, 1:59 pm, in reply to "Welcome to the oil death spiral"

    Good article, but unnecessary swipes at, and exaggeration of the power of, environmental groups.

    'There is something deeply tragic about watching people who would be dead within a fortnight without oil nevertheless calling for oil – and fossil fuels more broadly – to be banned immediately.'

    He namechecks Just Stop Oil later in the article, so I presume he's talking about them. Despite the name they aren't calling for oil and fossil fuels to be 'banned immediately'; their demand is:

    'That the UK government makes a statement that it will immediately halt all future licensing and consents for the exploration, development and production of fossil fuels in the UK.' - https://juststopoil.org/

    (Though individuals associated with the movement may have made other demands, I haven't followed it closely).

    I agree with the general point about some not thinking through the consequences of an abrupt end to fossil fuel use, and I'm always suspicious of the word 'just' in an exhortation that makes things sound simpler than they actually are (ironically I usually see it when people are encouraging the use of machines and/or high-energy inputs to 'just get it done' quickly and cheaply). But activists shouldn't be held responsible for how the political elites appropriate their messaging for their own ends, IMO. And I don't buy the author's suggestion that politicians are seriously contemplating de-carbonising the economy. They may pay lipservice to that but all the evidence I've seen indicates they're locked in to escalating fossil fuel use, including coal when deemed necessary, to maintain the growth of their economies. Any push towards renewables (sic) will be in addition to, not instead of that.

    Stopping oil cold turkey would have a similar effect on society that stopping heroin would have on a heroin addict. But if we carry on like we are we're dead - JSO are obviously correct on this point. The longer it goes on the worse the pain will be and the less likely it will be possible to manage the transition to minimise the suffering of those most at risk and most dependent on access to these finite resources. Something's got to give...

    I

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