- Arnaud Bertrand: The John Mearsheimer paradox Archived Message
Posted by sashimi
on December 8, 2022, 6:15 pm
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Tweet thread: https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1599446925144571905 1) He believes the US caused the Ukraine war, that it was a huge mistake that can escalate to nuclear war 2) He believes the US is trying to do the same thing wrt China and Taiwan 3) Yet he supports the latter while strongly condemning the former --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- His explanation: "China is a peer competitor for the US" so it needs not only be contained but be "rolled back". Whilst Russia is not powerful enough to threaten the US so it makes no sense to get into a proxy war against it. In fact, the US should ally with Russia against China --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- However, how can you condemn something which he says is so dangerous it can lead to nuclear war whilst supporting another? Logically speaking, the only way he could say that is if he believes that the risk of nuclear war is worth it to deny China regional hegemonism in Asia. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- He also doesn't seem to believe that a China that's a regional hegemon in Asia would even be a real security threat to the US homeland. At worst, it'd lead to an - undefined - reduction in US prosperity, a loss of "imperial" prerogatives and means of coercion abroad. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In other words, he's willing to risk it all - a nuclear winter where we might all die - over something which seems absolutely derisory in comparison. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think Mearsheimer and, more broadly, Realism, is spot on regarding many things. For instance he predicted the war in Ukraine. But he is wrong on two things: 1) he judges international relations based on what's best for a particular country and not for the world at large. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2) he obviously has a very flawed and highly immoral cost-benefit analysis. I prefer what these guys - two legendary Harvard teachers (including Walt who wrote a book with Mearsheimer) - propose for our future -- Cont'd at https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1591058419397857280 |
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