SR: Arms Control or Ukraine? Archived Message Posted by sashimi on February 23, 2023, 11:46 am, in reply to "The Gaggle Talks To Scott Ritter" 22 February 2023 (quote) Russia experts and national security specialists will be poring over the text of Russian President Vladimir Putin's address on Tuesday for some time to come, trying to divine hidden meaning. The fact is, however, Putin's speech was something rarely heard in Western political circles - unvarnished statements of fact, set forth in a straightforward, surprisingly easy-to-understand manner. In a world where Western politicians regularly dissemble to shape perception, even if the underlying "facts" are not true (one need only refer to President Joe Biden's infamous phone call with former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, in July 2021, for an example), Putin's speech was a breath of fresh air - no hidden agendas, no false pretense - no lies. And on the issue of arms control, the truth hurts. "I have to say today," Putin announced near the end of his address, "that Russia is suspending its participation in New START. I repeat, not withdrawing from the treaty, no, but merely suspending its participation." The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 as the outcome of negotiations between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, ostensibly caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that each country can deploy at 1,550; limits the number of deployed land-and submarine-based missiles and bombers used to deliver these warheads to 700; and caps at 800 the deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. In February 2021, Biden and Putin agreed to extend the treaty for an additional five years. New START will expire in 2026. Background to the Decision The backstory to New START is important, especially in the context of Putin's declaration regarding Russia's suspension. The core of that backstory is missile defense. In December 2001, then-President George W. Bush announced that the United States was withdrawing from the landmark 1972 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty, which banned (with limited exception) the development and deployment of missile defense systems designed to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The ABM treaty set in stone the Cold War concept of mutually assured destruction, or MAD, the idea that no side possessing nuclear weapons would use them against another nuclear power for the simple reason that to do so would bring about their own demise through guaranteed nuclear retaliation. The insanity of MAD helped pave the way for all arms control agreements that followed, from the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (SALT), to the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and on to the various iterations of Strategic Arms Reduction treaties (START). Putin condemned the U.S. decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty as "a mistake." At the time, U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals were subject to the limitations imposed by the 1991 START treaty. Efforts to further reduce U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons were undertaken as part of the START II treaty. But post-Cold War politics, combined with the U.S. decision to abandon the ABM treaty, left the treaty signed but unratified, effectively killing it. Similar issues helped conspire to kill the START III treaty in the negotiation stage. The narrowly focused Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, or SORT, which was signed in 2002, committed both the U.S. and Russia to additional reductions beyond those mandated by START I, but contained no verification or compliance mechanisms. The START I treaty expired in 2009, and SORT in 2012. New START was intended to replace both agreements. The Medvedev Presidency One of the sticking points has been the issue of missile defense. Under President Putin, Russia refused to enter any new substantive arms control treaty (SORT was more informal agreement than treaty in structure and substance) that did not meaningfully address missile defense. But in May 2008, Dmitry Medvedev took over as Russian president. The Russian constitution prohibited a president from serving more than two consecutive terms in office, and so, with Putin's support, Medvedev ran for Russia's highest office, and won. Putin was subsequently appointed prime minister. While the Bush administration sought to negotiate a follow-on treaty to the soon-to-be expired START I, Medvedev proved to be every bit as reluctant to entering any agreement with the U.S. that did not include limitations on missile defense, something President Bush would not accept. In the end, the problem of negotiating a new treaty would be left to the administration of Barack Obama, who assumed office in January 2009. In their first meeting, in London in late March 2009, the two leaders issued a statement in which they agreed "to pursue new and verifiable reductions in our strategic offensive arsenals in a step-by-step process, beginning by replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with a new, legally-binding treaty." As for missile defense, Obama and Medvedev agreed to treat it as a separate issue. "While acknowledging that differences remain over the purposes of deployment of missile defense assets in Europe," the statement read, "we discussed new possibilities for mutual international cooperation in the field of missile defense, taking into account joint assessments of missile challenges and threats, aimed at enhancing the security of our countries, and that of our allies and partners." Let there be no doubt - the New START treaty that was negotiated between Russia and the United States, while singularly focused on reducing strategic offensive nuclear arsenals, contained a clear understanding that this treaty would be followed by a good-faith effort by the U.S. to address Russia's longstanding concerns over missile defense. This was reflected in the exchange of non-binding unilateral statements attached to the New START treaty. The "Statement of the Russian Federation Concerning Missile Defense" set out the position that New START "may be effective and viable only in conditions where there is no qualitative or quantitative build-up in [U.S. missile defense system capabilities]." Moreover, the statement said any build-up in U.S. missile defense capabilities which gave "rise to a threat to [Russia's strategic nuclear force potential]" would be considered one of the "extraordinary events" mentioned in Article XIV of the treaty and could prompt Russia to exercise its right of withdrawal. For its part, the United States issued its own statement declaring that U.S. missile defenses "are not intended to affect the strategic balance with Russia" while declaring that it intended "to continue improving and deploying its missile defense systems in order to defend itself against limited attack." The agreements reached between Obama and Medvedev, however, was not necessarily acceptable to Putin. According to Rose Gottemoeller, the U.S. negotiator for New START, Putin, as prime minister, nearly scuttled the talks when, in December 2009, he once again raised the issue of missile defense. "They [the Russians] were going to have a critical National Security Council meeting," Gottemoeller later recounted in an October 2021 talk with the Carnegie Council, "and the story I have heard told is that Putin, for the first time showing some interest in these negotiations, walks into the National Security Council meeting and simply draws lines through all the issues on this decision sheet and said, 'No, no, no, no, no.'" Gottemoeller went on to describe how Putin then travelled to Vladivostok and delivered a speech where he denounced the treaty as "totally inadequate," criticizing both the U.S. and Russian negotiating teams as being "only focused on limiting strategic offensive forces," noting that "they are not limiting missile defense. This treaty is a waste of time," Gottemoeller quoted Putin. "We should get out of the negotiations." According to Gottemoeller, Medvedev stood up to Putin, telling his prime minister, "No, we are going to continue these negotiations and get them done." Broken Promise Anatoly Antonov was the Russian negotiator for New START. He dutifully complied with his instructions from the Kremlin to craft a treaty focused on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons, working under the assumption that the U.S. would be as good as its word when it came to engaging in meaningful negotiations on missile defense. And yet, less than a year after New START entered into force, Antonov found that the U.S. had no intention on following through on its promises. (/quote) -- Cont'd at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/02/22/scott-ritter-arms-control-or-ukraine/ Message Thread: The Gaggle Talks To Scott Ritter - sashimi February 23, 2023, 10:09 am SR: Arms Control or Ukraine? - sashimi February 23, 2023, 11:46 am   Searching