- Simplicius: SITREP 2/26 - Urgent Update Archived Message
- Simplicius: SITREP 2/26 - Urgent Update - sashimi February 26, 2023, 8:37 pm
- Belarus: provocation will not lead to retaliatory actions and a decision to join a special operation - sashimi February 26, 2023, 8:43 pm
- Bit worrisome to think this is a provocation to eventually draw in Poland etc nm - Tomski February 27, 2023, 4:37 pm
- Belarus: provocation will not lead to retaliatory actions and a decision to join a special operation - sashimi February 26, 2023, 8:43 pm
Posted by sashimi
on February 26, 2023, 8:37 pm
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(quote) I had been slowing working on a much longer piece which was set to release today. But I must interrupt it briefly for an urgent, quicker update. Today it has been confirmed by reputable sources that the AFU has attacked Belarusian soil - specifically a drone attack on a Russian early warning A-50U Beriev plane parked in Machulishchi airbase, just outside of Minsk. The UA side claims the A-50U was damaged, while there is no confirmation from the Russian side. ... But on top of that - strangely - there was a reported clash in the Volyn region between AFU and Belarusian border guards, reportedly resulting in the death of 1 AFU soldier. ... Recall what Lukashenko had said many times in recent months: "Belarus will join Russia's Ukraine offensive 'only' if it is attacked. Though of course, hiding behind the 'plausible deniability' veil of 'Belarusian partisans' could allow Kiev to escape direct responsibility for this attack - only time well tell. However, needless to say, this has the stink of deliberate provocation and escalation. Ukraine is not suicidal enough to want Belarus to open up a gigantic new front against them where the AFU would be forced to tie down tens of thousands of new troops. Particularly, not at the 'trade off' of damaging ONE Russian plane at some remote airport. Maybe if it was something that had actual consequence and was worth the invasion. No, the only conceivable reason the AFU would strong-arm Belarus into entering the conflict is if it was part of a well-detailed and coordinated Western intel operation (read: trap) meant to vastly escalate the conflict. The most likely vector of escalation would be to force the entry of Belarusian forces into Ukraine to use that as raison d'être to bring Polish and/or NATO troops into the country to, in some way, assist Ukraine. Furthermore, the very odd 'border skirmish' reported in the Volyn province, which appears wholly unconnected to the drone strike near Minsk 300km away is very puzzling. Also, in adjacent news, I wanted to update something regarding PMR / Transnistria. Last we spoke, I had opined that Russia and the PMR garrison would be powerless to stop a Ukrainian assault. However, I've recently learned the true size of the total forces there is much larger than previously thought. Not only is the Russian contingent somewhere in the 1500-3000 region, but the military and police force of PMR itself numbers in the range of 12-15k. So combined together they are approaching 20k in number, which is a size large enough to at least hold off or stymy an AFU attack. With that said, the reported 'rumors' of the size of AFU's intended formations for the assault were in the 25-35k range. But at least this would give them pause. (/quote) -- Cont'd at https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-226-urgent-update |
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