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    Re: More (h/t ML) some more graphs referred to and a major failure of science communication. Archived Message

    Posted by John Monro on June 20, 2023, 8:38 am, in reply to "More (h/t ML)"

    Usually it's not entirely helpful to illustrate a single atmospheric, localised and temporary phenomenon to example global warming. But in this case you can because the marine heat wave so totally beats all prior records, and secondly, literally on the other side of the planet, the same thing is happening.

    I have a statistical rule of thumb in regard to considering temperature records. If the record is more than three standard deviations from the mean that means it lies outside 99.7% of normal. In other words the chances of this happening by chance is just three in a thousand. In regard to the climate, that's a one in three hundred year event. Now most climate scientists will still tell you that one such event doesn't "prove" global warming. But this is unhelpful, a one in three hundred year event is four lifetimes rare. As a doctor, I would regularly prescribe medications that merely reached two standard deviations of significance, that's just 95%. That is recognised in the literature as being "significant' and drug companies and physicians will proceed, with caution, on that basis. I've long complained about global warming science being so reluctant to put these figures in context - for instance, that a single 4 standard deviation heat record treated by the scientist as significant and" proving" global warming, he or she would only be wrong to assert this once in 10,000 years. As an example the graph posted by John Lilburne showing Antarctic sea ice extent must now be at three standard deviations.

    So the figures of these marine heat waves are just so exceptional, they probably do represent a three standard deviation. Some heat records in Canada and all around the planet are reaching four or more standard deviation figures (SD X4 = 99.993 % or one in 10,000) , truly outside all previous scientific thinking and measurement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/19/marine-heatwave-uk-irish-coasts-threat-oysters-fish-high-temperatures

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2023/may/13/are-new-zealands-marine-heatwaves-a-warning-to-the-world?ref=morski.hr

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nzs-long-lasting-marine-heatwave-breaking-records/I7NELWVNTR5P2GS36UAS4K33BA/

    I'd have liked to have posted a graph from the www.marine heatwave.org site, but it doesn't work on my Mac (a _ issue, apparently) but you can see the graph in one of the URLs I've referenced here.

    For a number of graphs see this page, I can't find a separate URL for graphs to be posted directly here

    http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

    You will notice that the land surface temperature anomaly is now 1.5 dec C , but that's as compared with 1950, to compare with preindustrial, you have to add 0.5 dec C. meaning land temperatures are already at 2 deg C. Global warming scientist are failing to use this figure, instead for land/ocean warming. But 99.% of the world's population live on land. This failure is serious because it means the 1.5 deg C rise we're supposed to be avoiding (always a pious and ignorant hope) has long been exceeded where it actually counts.

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