- Simplicius: SITREP 21 Jun 2023 - Russia Re-Orients to Kupyansk in Surprise Advance Archived Message
Posted by sashimi
on June 22, 2023, 4:16 am
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There's now somewhat of a lull in the Zaporozhye fighting due to the mass amounts of losses the AFU has taken in their now fully failed bid to achieve tactical breakthroughs. ... Russian forces of the 429th regiment of the 19th motor rifle division of the 58th army from the southern military district have even knocked out the Ukrainian 128th mountain assault brigade from Pyatikhatki entirely, which means on that Orekhov front Ukraine was literally pushed back to the starting line, and didn't even achieve the minimal gains that the eastern grouping around Velyka Novosilka managed. One of the reasons for that is likely because the western grouping is defended by the aforementioned 58th Russian Army proper. I have repeatedly emphasized the difference in quality between the units of the actual Russian army, and the various patchwork auxiliary and paramilitary units that make up the tapestry of the SMO. On the eastern side for instance, one of the main units holding the lines which were pushed back in Makarovka-Blagodatne were the 'Storm-Z' battalion, which is a penal battalion of ex-convicts, a far cry from the army proper. No one yet seems to know exactly what the Storm-Z are, they are variously called a 'special contingent' a 'volunteer corps' and a private military company (PMC) "owned by Shoigu". They experienced relatively high losses in the Novosilka direction as the AFU sicc'd the elite 68th Jaegers on them, who released videos of grounds strewn with bodies from this Storm-Z unit as they retreated. They weren't huge losses, maybe a few dozen, but still comparatively more than nominal Russian units suffer. Interestingly, I've discovered that Storm-Z is being used in all the most 'high-risk' areas just like Wagner was previously. For instance, they also now operate in the meat-grinder of Marinka, as well as in the Kremennaya direction. Even so, the fact that one of Ukraine's most elite units was only able to scrape out a couple small hamlets from them is also telling, but my point was simply to differentiate the unit types by showing that the Russian Army proper did not lose a single inch on the western end. The reason such clarifications are important to me, is because they reframe a lot of the past propaganda into a more correct light. For instance, how similarly in the 'Kharkov offensive' which Ukraine claimed to have 'overrun' Russian units, which was equally a lie as the Izyum salient at that point was only being held by a small patchwork of DPR/volunteer units, with real Russian Army forces only coming in at the end to facilitate the already ongoing withdrawal. I have yet to see a front where the units of the real Russian Army have been driven back or 'defeated' in any way. This all goes back to yesterday's article where I noted the difference in equipment (and training, etc.) between distinguished districts of the Russian Army proper, and the various adjacent units that operate under the Russian 'umbrella' but are not actually/traditionally/historically part of the Russian Armed Forces. But as for Putin's video, the amount of losses he quotes are interesting: ~250 tanks and almost 700 other armor/vehicles. I outlined recently how even at the highest Western estimates, Ukraine is said to have 600-800 total tanks remaining (as per Pentagon leaks, etc.). If Putin's numbers are even remotely true, it would mean the Not-Offensive has potentially wiped out upwards of 30-45% of Ukraine's remaining heavy armor which would put them in dire straits. Recall, that even remaining armor is misleading as much of it is older tanks with 105mm or 115mm cannons that are no match for Russian MBTs, and the majority of remaining 125mm'ers are likely T-64s, which likewise is not promising. -- Cont'd at https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-62123-russia-re-orients-to |
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