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    Interesting BTL Archived Message

    Posted by Keith-264 on July 20, 2023, 8:41 pm, in reply to "Simplicius: Putin Strikes Back: Ukrainian Ports Devastated To Cap Grain Deal's Termination"


    Bear With Me
    Writes Corner Bear
    5 hr ago

    100% agree with the broader geopolitical conclusions in this article. I think we're moving towards the bigger picture being the important one - and think it's difficult for Simplicius to straddle without falling into the "conspiracy" camp, and moving away from what I perceive his strength to be (deep insight into the less-noticed aspects of the SMO, like the observations about radar contributions to AFU's data sharing platform).

    On the bigger picture though, it's shocking to me that the Yuan has collapsed 25% against the dollar (1 USD = 7.25 Yuan) after staying in a narrow band around 6 to 1 for decades. That's big, and no one's commenting on it. The Federal Reserve has been insolvent since February - they've sold off two trillion of their Treasuries to soak up dollars, which is why the Yuan has fallen. Absolutely no one's asking, how is Treasury going to sell $1.6 trillion in Treasuries this year? Next year? Who's going to buy them? The answer of course is they'll yield high enough to attract buyers, it's the only way. And since the turn-over on all $25 trillion of U.S. public debt keeps shrinking (no one wants 30 year Treasuries anymore, even 24 months seems too risky), the interest expense portion of the Federal government's budget is climbing rapidly.

    All that's to say, it's past the point anyone at the top in the country - Senior Executive Service in Federal government service, corporate c-suiters, the wealthy - can ignore the inevitable. There's no recovering, except maybe an AI revolution on par with the original IT revolution (and then, there's some risk China will win that). The elites believed their own propaganda for decades. Now I think reality is hard to ignore for them.

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