Quick takeaway; Mark argues that RF does not control Black Sea and it is increasingly becoming problematic for RF to continue with commercial shipping, thus having to use their "Northern route" instead i.e. canals to Caspian Sea etc. mainly due to shipping insurance. The second item that made me sit up was that the Ukr war will go on for years.
Now, I haven't heard this Sputnik radio podcast from 23rd Aug and couldn't locate on TLN. Not heard it yet: