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    John Helmer: When the Devil Drives, What Needs Come First? The Gorilla Radio Podcast Answers Archived Message

    Posted by sashimi on October 30, 2023, 12:47 pm

    30 Oct 2023

    In the Gaza operations so far, and in the ideology which Israeli officials and
    journalists are repeating to the western media, the devil aims to drive every
    Palestinian, the born and the as yet unborn, to death. In such a war the first
    need for Hamas and the Arabs is to survive in order to keep fighting. Nothing is
    more sure than the "holy reasons" Shakespeare put into the mouth of Lavatch the
    Clown, that surviving to fight the long war will defeat this devil's needs in
    the end.

    In practical politics, Israel and the US either win their genocidal war swiftly
    now, or else they will lose the long war. Russian military sources are reporting
    the US is resupplying the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at a rate of two US Air
    Force (USAF) transports every hour, moving from the continental US through bases
    in the UK, Germany, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus. US sources have acknowledged the
    logistical effort is too great to continue for long. Right now the US Navy and
    USAF cannot continue delivering on the promised resupply of the Ukrainian forces
    in their war against Russia, while at US bases in Syria and Iraq the Pentagon is
    privately evacuating troops while publicly striking at their Arab attackers.

    The Arab, Iranian, and Russian media are reporting that in response, Hamas and
    Hezbollah are maintaining a frequent rate of fire against IDF and Israeli
    territorial targets. They are not yet attacking Israel's offshore gas production
    platforms, which provide most of the fuel for the country's electricity
    generating plants. They are not yet disabling Israel's ports and airfields. The
    Russian military assessment is that for the time being the Hamas and Hezbollah
    capacity remains intact and in reserve. The Arab side is exercising restraint.

    What then are the needs which must now be addressed by the allies of the
    Palestinians, the Arab states, Iran, and then Russia?

    On Sunday, Russia officially called this war "the American project". This
    followed the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote last Friday, October
    27, when the US and Israel led a tiny minority in favour of their short war,
    including a half-dozen island states sinking slowly into the Pacific Ocean.

    A Moscow source confirms the US is the priority Russian target because the IDF
    cannot continue in Gaza as the US capabilities exhaust themselves. He believes
    that US over-exertion in the Middle East will accelerate the Russian military's
    move on to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield, and shorten thereby that
    war. The public statements for mediation between the warring parties issued by
    Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the full Russian story,
    the source believes. The first need in Lavrov's mediation, he says, is between
    the General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to let the Americans
    demonstrate their weakness across the region by conserving the Palestinians in
    place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct
    attack on Iran. "The real Russian position , not the public statements ,
    ultimately comes down to what level of military cooperation the Ministry of
    Defense has with Teheran. The Syrian and Ukrainian wars have made this very
    deep. I expect the Foreign Ministry's public line will change when the
    Palestinian casualties reach 20,000. As the official Israeli statements against
    the Russian government already make clear, they know what is going on behind the
    scenes. It's not just the Caucasian Muslims now but most Russians feel there's
    been enough crying support for Israel. Lavrov will catch up."

    "I would say the real work now in Moscow is on ensuring the Americans do not
    directly attack Iran. The rest is going to play out according to the General
    Staff's road map Lavrov could and should have in front of him. Call it the long
    war for short."
    -- Cont'd with links to podcast at https://johnhelmer.org/when-the-devil-drives-what-needs-come-first-the-gorilla-radio-podcast-answers/

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