Re: UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts - but...
Posted by walter on April 8, 2020, 1:29 am, in reply to "Re: UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts - but..."
Thanks Iain. Trying to make sense of this... |
The second graph forecasts that daily deaths per day will hit a peak of nearly 3000 in 9 days (?? seems very high). According to this the total of 60,000 deaths shown in the third graph would be reached by May 1st, which then plateaus and is still only 66,000 deaths by August.
Why then is the claim in reported in the Guardian saying August when the forecast is really May?
The increases in deaths necessary for this scenario to happen would have to be startling (6K deaths just now, rising to 60K in 23 days, average around 2.5K a day, but deaths were only 800 today).
But the first graph brings in the 'use of resources' factor, which presumably is the key to the forecasts. Peak resource use will also be in 9 days, it says. But if resource shortage is causing the deaths to increase long before this peak then we must have hit the buffers already?
This is a different trajectory from Italy, Spain and France; could be explained by less resources.
But my guess is that they aren't taking sufficient account of the prospective slowdown in cases, or more precisely, the slowing of the acceleration in the number of cases. I could be wrong about that - but I hope I'm right
About 85000 women raped in the UK per year, https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2008/07/rape_a_complex_crime.html