presymptomatic vs asymptomatic
Posted by dan on April 8, 2020, 8:17 am
The question that arises is what proportion of us have had the illness. Few and the eventual death toll will be high, high and then we are already nearing the end game.
There have already been claims that 90% of the country has already had it with asymptomatic carriage and transmission being the most likely outcome following exposure.
Without accurate antibody testing we won't know.
Judging from work - more than half of my colleagues have tested positive with symptoms, and that before any of us was heavily exposed to patients - it's possibly about 40% asymptomatic carriage though this is in an at risk population of older men. My wife was ill. My children had a slight cough one night each and that was it.
Very rough calculations
55000 cases (largely the population that gets admitted to hospital)
Assume 5% of symptomatic cases reach hospital - early estimates were 15% of symtomatic cases but elderly not being admitted in uk.
= 1.1 million symptomatic people in UK so far.
Assume only 20% symptomatic
= 5.5 million people asymptomatic carriers or symptomatic cases so far.
8% of population
Death toll 6000 so far but 7 day lag from symptoms in hospital to death so deaths in this 8% population will be higher likely past 10,000
Lets call it 5000 in case we are overcounting deaths by a factor of 2.
If 80% of population get it that equates to 50,000 deaths.
I think most of the assumptions I've used are conservative.
Worse than flu but not catastrophic.
If the current death toll is 10,000 and 40% of cases are symptomatic then the estimate is 200,000 deaths.
Such is modelling.
The only way to know where we are is to test, test, test - if you've not heard that before.