Russia Advances in Marinka, Vuhledar, Ukraine Struggles in Kherson; Europe Braces for Refugees Flood
I didnt mind this comment in The Age the other day
Posted by Adamski on November 23, 2022, 4:47 am, in reply to "Mercouris Latest..."
I wonder if what we are seeing is indeed "fatigue" or a gradual realisation that this appalling conflict has no winners, could have been prevented and will only end via diplomatic means not military ones. Just as Putin miscalculated 8-9 months ago. So has the USA/NATO ! Just as Zelensky assumed the mantle of heroic leader, so now has Putin shown a level of resolution and willingness to adapt his methods to achieve his revised aims.
The Kremlin did indeed believe it could achieve regime change in Kiev, secure the position of the Donbas separatists and bolster its national security in the Black Sea and along its western borders. It believed it could do this quickly and with minimal carnage/ damage ......it was wrong. In recent months we have observed a similar level of miscalculation and folly from the USA/NATO. The economic war unleashed on Russia was calculated to see its collapse. The re-equiping and expansion of the badly decimated Ukrainian military was seen as the solution to its military failures ( keep in mind it hasn't only been the Russians that have had "incompetent" leadership etc.) ... added to that was the infusion of NATO based training, military planning, access to intelligence and communications and a gradual build up of forces (especially technical expertise) amongst the ranks of the Ukrainians. We need to recall the predictions of Russian collapse due to a lack of munitions, morale and supplies. Predictions of the "Himar's miracle". Predictions of the Russian population rising up against Putin. Statements coming from Kiev, the Pentagon and London in June/July predicted a Ukrainian military "victory" , the clearing of Luhansk, Kherson, the Donets and even Crimea by the winter now upon us and the collapse of Russia's economy together with massive social unrest ...... they were wrong !
So, is it "fatigue" or is it a gradual realisation that the "wests" folly is as complete as "Putin's" folly ? Whilst the people of Ukraine are paying in blood and devastation, the economies of the west are also unravelling, as are the geopolitical alignments that this conflict was hoped it would create. Is there a gradual realisation that only a diplomatic outcome will stop this idiotic war .... a war the USA/NATO started, with the Russian's attacking first !
Re: I didnt mind this comment in The Age the other day
"The Kremlin did indeed believe it could achieve regime change in Kiev, secure the position of the Donbas separatists and bolster its national security in the Black Sea and along its western borders. It believed it could do this quickly and with minimal carnage/ damage ......it was wrong. "
Yes I agree the Russians indeed made a foolish assumption: one made due to a belief that they were dealing with rational actors in the West who would see sense and consequently the whole thing as you say would be wrapped up quickly and without too much damage.
That "mistake" though has been a valuable lesson. What they found is that what they were and are dealing with in Ukraine and the greater West is far from rationality: it met instead contempt, narcissism, delusion and a psychopathology that cares nothing for human life.
Western Perfidy has been confirmed and the loss of trust has been enormous. Consequently the Western desire that Russia would ever be a mere comprador state as under Yeltsin has become even further removed from any potential reality.
inevitable confrontation that had been brewing for at least two decades. It is untenable to claim that they expected a quick collapse by the US-Ukronazi regime. The Donbas loyalists and their allies have ben massively outnumbered from the start. The recent mobilisation by the RF is remedying that. The truth is that the Russians can win by not losing and the Seppoes can't.Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
Re: No mistake, the RF leaders knew that this was the
As above: A "collapse" would have required a far greater numbers of troops. Russia wanted a neutral Ukraine and a semi autonomous Donbas: they stated that repeatedly.
Obviously... (Minsk accords) The only real (and mild) change they made for the special operation was to recognise the DPR and the LPR as independent states (21 February) to "protect the people" and the "demilitarization" and denazification" demand: essentially a demand for neutrality. The initial Russian army of 135,000 or so Russian troops was not enough to defeat a Ukraine with 200,000, substantial reserves and on its own territory. Russia had thus hoped a hard strike not damaging major social infrastructure would enable rapprochement and compromise and this nearly came about with "significant progress" being made in the March talks when the Russians provisionally agreed to withdraw in return for:
"....Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey..."
Unfortunately and in some part thanks to warmongering Boris Johnson in April this never happened.
This failure ultimately resulted in a change in Russian policy with the creation of the "four new regions" of Russia (30 Sept ): Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia whose populations are now "...our citizens forever".
-I would reckon under the new policy Odessa and Mykolaiv are cards yet to be played for.
on November 23, 2022, 12:50 am