Current Russian tactics are the absolute opposite of the military theory of concentrated force developed by Napoleon, Pepe Escobar writes.
Footfalls echo in the memory Down the passage which we did not take Towards the door we never opened Into the rose-garden. My words echo Thus, in your mind. But to what purpose Disturbing the dust on a bowl of rose-leaves I do not know.
T.S. Eliot, Burnt Norton
Spare a thought to the Polish farmer snapping pics of a missile wreckage – later indicated to belong to a Ukrainian S-300. So a Polish farmer, his footfalls echoing in our collective memory, may have saved the world from WWIII – unleashed via a tawdry plot concocted by Anglo-American “intelligence”.
Such tawdriness was compounded by a ridiculous cover-up: the Ukrainians were firing on Russian missiles from a direction that they could not possibly be coming from. That is: Poland. And then the U.S. Secretary of Defense, weapons peddler Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin, sentenced Russia was to blame anyway, because his Kiev vassals were shooting at Russian missiles that should not have been in the air (and they were not).
Call it the Pentagon elevating bald lying into a rather shabby art.
The Anglo-American purpose of this racket was to generate a “world crisis” against Russia. It’s been exposed – this time. That does not mean the usual suspects won’t try it again. Soon.
The main reason is panic. Collective West intel sees how Moscow is finally mobilizing their army – ready to hit the ground next month – while knocking out Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure as a form of Chinese torture.
Those February days of sending only 100,000 troops – and having the DPR and LPR militias plus Wagner commandos and Kadyrov’s Chechens do most of the heavy lifting – are long gone. Overall, Russians and Russophones were facing hordes of Ukrainian military – perhaps as many as 1 million. The “miracle” of it all is that Russians did quite well.
Every military analyst knows the basic rule: an invasion force should number three times the defending force. The Russian Army at the start of the SMO was at a small fraction of that rule. The Russian Armed Forces arguably have a standing army of 1.3 million troops. Surely they could have spared a few tens of thousands more than the initial 100,000. But they did not. It was a political decision.
But now SMO is over: this is CTO (Counter-Terrorist Operation) territory. A sequence of terrorist attacks – targeting the Nord Streams, the Crimea Bridge, the Black Sea Fleet – finally demonstrated the inevitability of going beyond a mere “military operation”.
And that brings us to Electric War.
Paving the way to a DMZ
The Electric War is being handled essentially as a tactic – leading to the eventual imposition of Russia’s terms in a possible armistice (which neither Anglo-American intel and vassal NATO want).
Even if there was an armistice – widely touted for a few weeks now – that would not end the war. Because the deeper, tacit Russian terms – end of NATO expansion and “indivisibility of security” – were fully spelled out to both Washington and Brussels last December, and subsequently dismissed.
As nothing – conceptually – has changed since then, coupled with the Western weaponization of Ukraine reaching a frenzy, the Putin-era Stavka could not but expand the initial SMO mandate, which remains denazification and demilitarization. Yet now the mandate will have to encompass Kiev and Lviv.
And that starts with the current de-electrification campaign – which goes way beyond the east of the Dnieper and along the Black Sea coast towards Odessa.
That brings us to the key issue of reach and depth of Electric War, in terms of setting up what would be a DMZ – complete with no man’s land – west of the Dnieper to protect Russian areas from NATO artillery, HIMARS and missile attacks.
How deep? 100 km? Not enough. Rather 300 km – as Kiev has already requested artillery with that kind of range.
What’s crucial is that way back in July this was already being extensively discussed in Moscow at the highest Stavka levels.
In an extensive July interview, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov let the cat – diplomatically – out of the bag:
“This process continues, consistently and persistently. It will continue as long as the West, in its impotent rage, desperate to aggravate the situation as much as possible, continues to flood Ukraine with more and more long-range weapons. Take the HIMARS. Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov boasts that they have already received 300-kilometre ammunition. This means our geographic objectives will move even further from the current line. We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Vladimir Zelensky, or whoever replaces him, will control to have weapons that pose a direct threat to our territory or to the republics that have declared their independence and want to determine their own future.”
The implications are clear.
As much as Washington and NATO are even more “desperate to aggravate the situation as much as possible” (and that’s Plan A: there’s no Plan B), geoeconomically the Americans are intensifying the New Great Game: desperation here applies to trying to control energy corridors and setting their price.
Russia remains unfazed – as it continues to invest in Pipelineistan (towards Asia); solidify the multimodal International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), with key partners India and Iran; and is setting the price of energy via OPEC+.
A paradise for oligarchic looters
The Straussians/neo-cons and neoliberal-cons permeating the Anglo-American intel/security apparatus – de facto weaponized viruses – won’t relent. They simply cannot afford losing yet another NATO war – and on top of it against “existential threat” Russia.
As the news from the Ukraine battlefields promise to be even grimmer under General Winter, solace at least may be found in the cultural sphere. The Green transition racket, seasoned in a toxic mixed salad with the eugenist Silicon Valley ethos, continues to be a side dish offered with the main course: the Davos “Great Narrative”, former Great Reset, which reared its ugly head, once again, at the G20 in Bali.
That translates as everything going swell as far as the Destruction of Europe project is concerned. De-industrialize and be happy; rainbow-dance to every woke tune on the market; and freeze and burn wood while blessing “renewables” in the altar of European values.
A quick flashback to contextualize where we are is always helpful.
Ukraine was part of Russia for nearly four centuries. The very idea of its independence was invented in Austria during WWI for the purpose of undermining the Russian Army – and that certainly happened. The present “independence” was set up so local Trotskyite oligarchs could loot the nation as a Russia-aligned government was about to move against those oligarchs.
The 2014 Kiev coup was essentially set up by Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski to draw Russia into a new partisan war – as in Afghanistan – and was followed by orders to the Gulf oil haciendas to crash the oil price. Moscow had to protect Russophones in Crimea and Donbass – and that led to more Western sanctions. All of it was a setup.
For 8 years, Moscow refused to send its armies even to Donbass east of the Dnieper (historically part of Mother Russia). The reason: not to be bogged down in another partisan war. The rest of Ukraine, meanwhile, was being looted by oligarchs supported by the West, and plunged into a financial black hole.
The collective West deliberately chose not to finance the black hole. Most of the IMF injections were simply stolen by the oligarchs, and the loot transferred out of the country. These oligarchic looters were of course “protected” by the usual suspects.
It’s always crucial to remember that between 1991 and 1999 the equivalent of the present entire household wealth of Russia was stolen and transferred overseas, mostly to London. Now the same usual suspects are trying to ruin Russia with sanctions, as “new Hitler” Putin stopped the looting.
The difference is that the plan of using Ukraine as just a pawn in their game is not working.
On the ground, what has been going on so far are mostly skirmishes, and a few real battles. But with Moscow massing fresh troops for a winter offensive, the Ukrainian Army may end up completely routed.
Russia didn’t look so bad – considering the effectiveness of its mincing machine artillery strikes against Ukrainian fortified positions, and recent planned retreats or positional warfare, keeping casualties down while smashing Ukrainian withering firepower.
The collective West believes it holds the Ukraine proxy war card. Russia bets on reality, where economic cards are food, energy, resources, resource security and a stable economy.
Meanwhile, as if the energy-suicide EU did not have to face a pyramid of ordeals, they can surely expect to have knocking on their door at least 15 million desperate Ukrainians escaping from villages and cities with zero electrical power.
The railway station in – temporarily occupied – Kherson is a graphic example: people show up constantly to warm up and charge their smartphones. The city has no electricity, no heat, and no water.
Current Russian tactics are the absolute opposite of the military theory of concentrated force developed by Napoleon. That’s why Russia is accumulating serious advantages while “disturbing the dust in a bowl of rose-leaves”.
And of course, “we haven’t even started yet.”
MoA: Ukraine - Lights Out, No Water And Soon No Heat
Posted by Tomski on November 24, 2022, 12:34 pm, in reply to "Pepe: Electric war"
Earlier today the Russian military shut down the Ukrainian electricity network.
Previous attacks had limited the distribution capacity to some 50% of demand. Controlled blackouts over several hours per day allowed to give some electricity for a few hours to most parts of the country. The attack today created a much larger problem. Not only were distribution networks attacked but also so the elements that connect Ukraine's electricity production facilities to the distribution network. All four nuclear power stations of Ukraine with their 15 reactors are now in shutdown mode
Kiev along with most other cities of Ukraine no longer has electricity.
Moldavia is likewise effected as it received some 20% of its electricity from Ukraine. When the Ukrainian network shut down the only local thermal power plant shut down too. It is likely that it can be switched on again but that can be a complicate process.
Limited electricity imports from the European system into Ukraine may still be possible but that electricity would only be available in Ukraine's western cities.
Before today's attack the Washington Post reported of the difficulties in repairing the network. As we ad explained before the Russian attacks are hitting the transformers that connect the national 330 kilovolt backbone network. These are hard to replace:
As the scope of damage to Ukraine’s energy systems has come into focus in recent days, Ukrainian and Western officials have begun sounding the alarm but are also realizing they have limited recourse. Ukraine’s Soviet-era power system cannot be fixed quickly or easily. In some of the worst-hit cities, there is little officials can do other than to urge residents to flee — raising the risk of economic collapse in Ukraine and a spillover refugee crisis in neighboring European countries. ... Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that about half of the country’s energy infrastructure was “out of order” following the bombardment. ... For weeks, Russian missiles have targeted key components of Ukraine’s electrical transmission system, knocking out vital transformers without which it is impossible to supply power to households, businesses, government offices, schools, hospitals and other critical facilities. During a briefing for reporters on Tuesday, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, the state-run power grid operator, called the damage to the power system “colossal.” ... Russians, he said, were mainly targeting substations, nodes on the electrical grid where the current is redirected from power stations. The main components of these substations are autotransformers — “high-tech and high-cost equipment” that is difficult to replace. ... A list of “urgent needs” from DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, circulating in Washington, lists dozens of transformers along with circuit breakers, bushings and transformer oil. ... But it is the autotransformers — the “heart” of the substations, in the words of Kudrytskyi — that are at the top of the Ukrainians’ list of needs and the key to keeping the country’s electrical grid functioning.
The Ukrainians have tried to buy up every autotransformer they can find, going as far as South Korea to purchase them, but they still need to place orders for more to be built.
“We try to collect everything around the world that they have now, and order more,” said Olena Zerkal, an adviser to Ukraine’s Energy Ministry.
Any attempts to repair the network are useless as long as Russia continues to attack it.
To stop these attacks requires a political solution. Ukraine will have to give up and find some agreement with Russia.
Russia also attacked some of the natural gas sources Ukraine has:
Russia last week broadened its targets. Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive of Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz, said in an interview that a “massive rocket attack” hit 10 gas production facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, including Shebelinka, one the largest production and drilling areas. “Of course, we will do our best now to recover, but this will take time and resources and material,” Chernyshov said. “Time is of the essence,” he added. “Because winter is now.”
The targeting of the gas supply was a critical development, said Victoria Voytsitska, a former member of parliament now working with civil society groups on getting Ukraine the equipment it needs. If Moscow takes out the gas system, she said, cities and villages across the country could become “uninhabitable.”
The Russian gas provider Gazprom has announced that it will reduce the transport of gas through Ukraine to European customers as the Ukraine is stealing from it:
Gazprom says that it has noticed some of the gas intended for Moldova under a contract with the local gas firm is being diverted by Ukraine. If the imbalance in gas transit continues, Gazprom will start reducing gas flows via Ukraine on the morning of November 28, the Russian gas giant said today, as carried by Russian news agency TASS. Without electricity there is no water flowing in the water distribution systems of the cities. Without water toilets can not be used. Public hygiene will suffer. The internet in Ukraine is also down.
A country that is becoming 'uninhabitable' has little chance to wage and win a war. When there is no transport, no electricity, no heat and no communication everything becomes incredibly difficult.
The refugee stream all this will cause will increase pressure on Europe to push Ukraine into negotiating for peace with Russia. Tough conditions will be applied but there is no other way out of this mess.
--- Throughout the last weeks Ukrainian attacks on the frontline have been remarkably ineffective. There is no longer any coordination of larger formations. The units attacking now are mostly only company size or even smaller. A 12 minute video that showed drone footage of such an attack was published yesterday:
What's the media hiding? @narrative_hole - 11:20 UTC · Nov 23, 2022 I can’t believe I missed this one today, the editing is unbelievable.
A 12 minute clip of Ukrainians conducting what was sadly a suicide attack on Russian trenches
... just to be pummeled by Su-25’s, infantry, heavy mortars, a tank, MLRS and finished with an Su-34 bombing run. video
Sitting on top of an armored infantry vehicle some 20 Ukrainian soldiers drive up to a fortified area and enter the first empty row of trenches. From there they try to attack the second row of trenches that is held by a handful of Russian soldiers.
The Ukrainian troops seem to be fairly well equipped with helmets and armor vests. But they have no support.
The Russian infantry fights back. It is supported by well targeted mortar fire, artillery, tank and air attacks. The Russians have drones up in the air that can see the whole scene. The Ukrainian units have nothing but their rifles and a few hand grenades. After the attacking platoon is destroyed the Russian artillery attacks and destroys the industrial area from where they had been coming. The whole operation ends up as a complete disaster. All Ukrainian troops involved seem to be dead. The Russian side seems to have had no or only few casualties.
What's the media hiding? @narrative_hole - 1:04 AM · Nov 23, 2022 This battle took place some time ago, but it’s still incredible to watch now that they made the concise edit.
If we consider that such attacks happen by the dozens every week, the Russian MoD estimates of Ukrainian daily losses aren’t that farfetched.
There are several such attacks per day and only very few are successful.
From today's clobber list:
In Donetsk direction, units of Russian army continued their intense operation. More than 60 Ukrainian servicemen and five armoured fighting vehicles have been eliminated. In South Donetsk direction, artillery fire and decisive actions by Russian troops have repulsed an attack by the AFU with up to a company's tactical group forces towards Pavlovka. In addition, as a result of a pre-emptive fire attack, enemy reserves advancing from Ugledar have been destroyed.
A sabotage and reconnaissance group of the AFU has been destroyed near Novodarovka (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy's losses amounted to more than 40 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, three armoured vehicles, a MT-LB and four pick-up trucks.
In Kupyansk direction, an attempt to launch an attack by an AFU mechanised infantry company near Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic) has been thwarted by artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems.
As a result of Russian artillery fire more than 30 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles and one mortar have been destroyed.
In Krasniy Liman direction, an attempt to move the AFU company tactical group to attack the Chervonopopvka (Lugansk People's Republic) has been disrupted by pre-emptive fire.
Up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, three mortar crews and two motor vehicles have been eliminated.
Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised the AFU 128th Mountain Assault Brigade's command post deployed near Volnyansk (Zaporozhye region), as well as 72 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 144 areas. ...
That are at least 150 dead Ukrainian soldiers just there.
I do not understand hwy the Ukrainian command is still ordering such senseless attacks. Militarily it should have long gone into defensive mode. It would save Ukrainian lives and would make it more costly for the Russians to attack.
--- The European parliament, which has no serious legislative function, voted today for a non-binding resolution that declared Russia to be a 'state sponsor of terrorism'. Some Russian's found that outrageous. A few hours later the Parliament was hit by a 'sophisticated' cyber attack:
The European Parliament website was affected by a hacking attack, officials said on Wednesday. Parliament President Roberta Metsola said it was a "sophisticated attack" and that a pro-Kremlin group had claimed responsibility.
She noted that the attack followed the EU lawmakers' vote to name Russia a "state sponsor" of terrorism over its war in Ukraine.
"My response is: Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine)," Metsola said.
That irrelevant Maltese conservative still has a lot to learn.
on November 24, 2022, 12:17 pm