Re: Does it matter if they are NOT #chemtrails? You're right, Gerard
Posted by John Monro on May 29, 2023, 10:58 pm, in reply to "Does it matter if they are NOT #chemtrails?"
You're quite right, Gerard, they should give you pause. Aircraft emissions of CO2, NO, etc account for around 2.4% of actual global emissions, but if you include the direct warming effect of contrails, and the fact that these emissions occur in the stratosphere, where they are more effective warming agents, aircraft cause somewhere approaching 5% of human induced emissions by global warming potential. (These figures are a bit debatable- but in that air travel is predicted to treble by 2050 and there's no obvious way to decarbonise it, even hydrogen powered craft will cause global warming by leaving so much water vapour in the stratosphere) Aircraft emissions are similar to shipping (3%), but there's a small cooling effect in shipping due to the particulates emitted. As shipping gets a bit cleaning, this cooling effect is diminishing. To compare further Germany's present emissions are about 2% of the world's (in 1900 it was 16%). |
Here's a NZ take: https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-much-does-flying-contribute-to-climate-change-127707
As far as I know the state of affairs described here still applies.
I have a personal conundrum, our four daughters all live in the UK, along with our 1 year old grandson, our only grandchild. My wife has booked her flight for July, I have not yet told the family I'm seriously thinking of not going myself because of global warming. (we run an electric car on electricity from 85% renewable) Yet the UK is my old home, I actually feel more comfortable in the UK than in NZ and I get very homesick here.
Should we stop all tourism by plane, and only allow travel for family reasons. Should most travel for business also be banned unless you can prove internet conferencing and meetings are unfeasible? Should aviation fuel be taxed or passengers pay a hefty carbon fee? etc etc. Jevon's paradox shows us that the continuous push for increased aircraft efficiency is unable to reduce emissions. if the cost reduces because less fuel is needed, people fly more, or if the prices of fuel increase , more people continue to fly than would have if efficiencies hadn't improved in the meantime.