Simplicius: First Leg of AFU's Offensive Has Begun
Posted by sashimi on June 8, 2023, 3:32 am
Today is the first day we can probably say the offensive has truly begun in the sense that Ukraine has launched large maneuver attacks in exactly the primary directions long-predicted as being at the heart of the offensive. Yesterday's push much farther east near Velyka Novosilka had long been forecasted as the 'diversionary' direction, and today they struck the true direction right under Orekhov where for a long time their main force buildup was observed by Russian recon/intel units.
With the large NATO Air Defender exercises - called 'the largest ever' - set to begin on June 12, we can only assume that today was the opening act of what's meant to be a ramp up that will crescendo during the exercises in less than a week. Presumably, Kiev is timing it to make initial breakthroughs from now til then, and then inject their much larger reserve force into the breakthrough zone right at the time of the exercises to achieve a truly triumphal propaganda syzygy.
But, judging by today's results, that syzygy is more a zugzwang. Russian forces dealt a crushing blow to AFU's meat-vanguard. Let's break down how it happened in detail; however, before that, first let's update a few things about the last advance over the past couple days on Zaporozhye's eastern flank. -- Cont'd at https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/first-leg-of-afus-offensive-has-begun
News Update & Analysis Ukrainian Counteroffensive Zaporizhia Late Night June 8
It seems that the much awaited ukrainian counteroffensive has started. Since yesterday a number of waves with ukrainian units has attacked the russian positions south and southwest of Orikhiv. The fighting has been very hard but the ukrainian forces has made only minor gains and according to my russian sources there seems to have been heavy casualities on both sides, but especially on the ukrainian side. The russian MoD will probably claim several thousand killed ukrainians and 50-100 destroyed ukrainian combat vehicles later today.
After several unsuccessfull assaults yesterday with limited artillery support the UkrAF spent a couple of hours long massive artillery barrage on the russian forward positions before resuming attacks during the night but to no avail. For the time being no attacks are ongoing, but large ukrainian formations are in position for resumed attacks. The attacks will probably resume in a couple of hours.
I believe the ukrainian side is disappointed with the lack of progress. They must break through not only the first russian defenceline but a large number of defencelines behind the first one. To achieve success the ukrainian side cannot spend many days with huge losses to break through each defenceline.
The coming three or four days might be some of the most important days in 2023 when it comes to the war. If UkrAF doesn't succeed in breaking through the russian defences and suffer massive casualities during the attempts the summer offensive will be shortlived and a failure. If on the other side ukrainian forces do break through they have to take on the next defenceline and it's starting over again. The only way Ukraine can achieve a significant success is if the russian forces collapse under pressure from the attacks and panic spreads. But that doesn't seem likely at the moment.
Ukraine must get a significant success during the offensive to make it worth the costs. A failure will change the perception of the RuAF both in the West but also in the rest of the world. The likelihood of a ukrainian military victory will disappear. Pressure both within the western countries, but also from the west towards Ukraine, will increase on negotiations to solve the conflict. On the other hand a victoriousl Russia might want to go for a military victory instead of negotiations and use a ukrainian defeat for an major offensive.
For the time going I'm inclined to believe that the most likely outcome is a ukrainian defeat. They have no surprise or numerical superiotity and faces an enemy with superiority in artillery and air power who awaits them in well prepared fortifications. It looks a lot like the battle of Kursk in 1943. When the Third Reich throw all their reserves in an offensive against well prepared Soviet defences and used up all of their carefully gathered reserves during a couple of weeks, without any major success.
on June 8, 2023, 3:32 am