From rag-tag militia to global supply chain disruptor, the Houthi movement in Yemen has emerged as the most audacious Arab ally for Palestinians besieged in Gaza.
Drones, anti-ship ballistic missiles and a helicopter-led hijacking are just some of the recent tactics deployed by Houthi forces in Yemen against maritime traffic in the Red Sea.
The Houthis have pledged to target “all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality”. Attacks, they say, will continue until Gaza receives the food and medicine it needs.
They are certainly having an impact. Since December 15, following a drone and ballistic missile strike on two merchant vessels, four of the world’s largest shipping companies – representing over 50% of global container shipping capacity – have suspended voyages through Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow gateway at the southern tip of the Red Sea.
Israeli cargo shipping company, ZIM, had already announced the rerouting of its fleet from the Red Sea to the much longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope. Yesterday, oil giant BP also declared a pause for all its tankers travelling through the region.
The most recent disruption followed a Houthi-manned helicopter landing on the deck of the British-owned, Israeli-linked, Galaxy Leader, on November 19. The cargo ship and its crew are still being held in the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah on Yemen’s western coast.
This weekend, HMS Diamond took out a Houthi-launched drone, the first aerial target shot down by the Royal Navy since the Gulf War in 1991. The missile used is estimated to have cost up to £2m, versus a drone that might be a hundred times cheaper to produce.
With numerous Red Sea suspensions being declared by shipping companies, last night U.S. defence secretary Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, a “multinational security initiative” to protect shipping against Houthi attacks.
The naval coalition includes Britain alongside Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. A naval convoy for vessels – a protection measure not used since the so-called “Tanker War” of the 1980s in the Persian Gulf – is a likely option for the new coalition.
Where did the Houthis come from? The Houthis’ military capability has dramatically transformed since their emergence from a 1990s Zaydi Shia revivalist movement, the Believing Youth. It was a response in part to the Saudi-funded spread of Salafism in Yemen.
In 2004 the killing by Yemeni security forces of parliamentarian and Believing Youth founder, Hussein al-Houthi, sparked the first of six wars between the state and the Houthis. During Yemen’s revolution in 2011, the Houthis downed their weapons to join peaceful anti-government demonstrations that eventually led to the end of more than three decades of rule by President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
In a classic Yemeni-style plot twist, their former foe Saleh and his military loyalists formed an alliance with the Houthis in 2014 in a bid to claw back power. After battling their way through three governorates and laying siege to a major military base in the capital, the Houthis seized power in a coup facilitated by the former president. The “rag-tag militia” had come of age.
Six months later, in March 2015, Saudi Arabia stepped in and led a military intervention against the Houthis in support of the ousted Yemeni government. The Saudis would receive extensive military support from the US and UK, with the latter’s largest arms firm BAE Systems heavily involved in maintaining its air force.
In parallel with the Houthis’ rise came growing sponsorship from Iran. What started as political support morphed and from 2014 accelerated into military cooperation including weapons supplies, manufacturing and training.
Before 2014 the Houthis would have lacked the capability, weaponry and know-how to carry out the recent attacks in the Red Sea. Renamed replicas of Iranian produced missiles and drones flaunted in military parades in Sana’a are now central to the Houthi arsenal.
They have become a key member of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, demonstrating their value to the anti-Western, anti-Israel coalition with their escalation in the Red Sea. A poll of Palestinians published last week found Yemen’s response to the war with Israel was the most popular out of all regional actors.
Awkward history While their military prowess has advanced, the ideology espoused by the group’s hardliners harks backwards, back to a time of theocracy when northern Yemen was ruled by a Zaydi imamate from the ninth century up until the civil war of the 1960s.
In that conflict British special forces embedded themselves within the imam’s troops to train and support them in their fight against a Yemeni republican army backed by tens of thousands of Egyptian soldiers. Britain wasn’t alone. Saudi Arabia and Israel also sponsored the Zaydi imam’s fighters against the Egyptians and the republican cause.
Israel’s clandestine support through Saudi Arabia had the ulterior motive of keeping the Egyptian army bogged down in Yemen – some 26,000 Egyptian troops died in north Yemen’s civil war. This left Israel well-placed to launch their short but successful Six-Day war in 1967, during which Israel seized the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip from Egypt – an inconvenient aspect of their ancestor’s history which the Houthis won’t wish to highlight.
Despite Saudi, British and Israeli backing, the Yemeni civil war brought to an end the Zaydi imamate in 1970. Houthi rule in northern Yemen since 2014 has meant a resurgence of policies not seen since the old imamate, favouring Hashemites (descendants of the Prophet Mohammed) at the expense of traditional tribal norms, severely restricting women’s rights, and zero tolerance for dissent or criticism.
Red Sea blockade Egypt – a member of the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis – is again facing the prospect of another bloody nose from Yemen’s Zaydi fighters. This time it’s likely to come in the form of a financial blow to the Suez Canal.
Since the Houthi attacks escalated in the Red Sea last month, 78 vessels have reportedly delayed journeys through the Red Sea with a further 48 ships diverting away from the Suez route altogether. Tolls through the canal amount to around $500,000 per vessel.
Although the current disruption is still relatively minor to the 12% of global trade that travels the Red Sea/Suez route, if Houthi attacks continue at the daily rate seen over recent days the economic hit to Egypt will become impossible for Cairo to ignore.
The Houthis’ stance against Israel and in support of the Palestinians has proved widely popular. Beyond the large Houthi-organised pro-Palestine protests in Sana’a and smaller gatherings across Houthi controlled territory, the effectiveness of the maritime attacks has garnered admiration even amongst the anti-Houthi side in Yemen’s current conflict.
Anti-Israeli, anti-American and anti-Jewish rhetoric has long been a Houthi norm. The decades-old mantra “Death to America, Death to Israel, Damn the Jews, Victory to Islam”, is the Houthis’ red and green slogan that’s mounted on flags, painted on mountainsides and chanted by its supporters.
The emergence of Israel as a renewed foreign enemy to replace Saudi Arabia has proved timely. A March 2022 ceasefire ended the Saudi-led air war against the Houthis and reduced frontline fighting.
Domestic governance issues have been on the rise with swift crackdowns on protests ahead of a planned restructuring of the state to consolidate Houthi power. A political crisis was unfolding in the months before the October 7 Hamas attack.
A popular cause to rally around with another American-backed foreign enemy is a distraction that will also be a relief for Houthi authorities. At stake domestically is the welfare of tens of millions of Yemeni civilians and a political settlement to end the nine-year-long war with Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea disruption has already impacted maritime insurance and consequently shipping costs.
High stakes For Yemen, which imports up to 90% of its food and goods, the knock-on effect of rising food prices may be dire. Almost 70% of Yemenis rely on humanitarian aid and earlier this month the UN’s World Food Program announced a suspension of aid in Houthi territory after failing to reach an agreement with the Houthis on its operations.
Yemen is still struggling to recover from near-famine conditions as a result of the de-facto blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia over the course of the conflict. Yet it is Saudi Arabia who has called on the U.S. to show restraint in their response to Houthi maritime attacks.
In the weeks leading up to October 7 there was much anticipation of an imminent deal being signed between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, a deal that the Saudis are increasingly desperate to sign and the Houthis may calculate they can walk away from with minimal consequence.
The result of the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks may not be immediately obvious, or in line with their stated aims of harming Israel. Shipping stocks have risen since December 15. The share price of Israeli-owned ZIM rose 18 percent at the end of last week.
Maersk, who also suspended Red Sea travel, is a transporter for the U.S. Department of Defense. It is integral to U.S. military logistics and saw its stock close up eight percent.
On Monday, in a fresh statement from Yemen, the Houthi armed forces claimed two more maritime attacks in the Red Sea. The Houthis have come out on top territorially, politically and militarily from a decade of fighting in Yemen. In the process they were bombed, sanctioned and blockaded.
They are the Axis of Resistance member gathering prowess and popularity in the region. In weighing up how far to take their stance against Israel and its allies by targeting international shipping, they may calculate there’s still more to gain.
US announces 10-nation coalition to combat Huthi attacks in Red Sea
On Monday, General Lloyd Austin (lead image, left), the US Secretary of Defense, announced that the US is assembling a fleet of warships to defend Israel’s port of Eilat, the Gulf of Aqaba, and Israel’s Red Sea shipping route by threatening to attack Yemen if it exercises its Law of the Sea right to regulate military transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (lead image, right).
The Austin fleet is to be assembled from the coalition of NATO states at war with Russia in the Ukraine. Austin’s call, announced by the Pentagon while Austin is in Israel, follows the failure of the USS Eisenhower and its squadron, with additional French and British warships, to prevent the collapse of commercial container and tanker shipping to and from Israel.
“The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen,” Austin announced, “threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters.”
“This is an international challenge that demands collective action. Therefore, today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.”
Bahrain on the Persian Gulf — the only Arab state included on Austin’s list — and the Seychelles, the island state in the Indian Ocean, are included to provide shore base facilities for the proposed Yemen-attack fleet. However, no country with naval bases on the Red Sea shore, territorial waters, and exclusive economic zones extending into the waterway — Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti — has publicly agreed to participate or approved this escalation of the Gaza war to benefit Israel.
The Pentagon has also asked the Australian Navy for a frigate to join the Red Sea fleet, but the Australian government in Canberra is reluctant to agree, and Austin has dropped the country from his list.
All of the governments on Austin’s list, with the exception of the US, voted last week at the United Nations General Assembly for Israel to halt its operations in the Gaza war. In this context, none of these states recognizes Israel’s right to impose its blockade of Gaza’s ports extending into Palestine’s territorial waters, the Gaza Maritime Area, and Israel’s de facto military rule of the international waters of the Mediterranean, including the Gaza Marine gas field.
“Freedom of navigation”, Austin’s version of the legal doctrine of his Operation Prosperity Guardian, does not apply to the Gaza Maritime Area. [hehe]
In the Red Sea, maps of the International Institute for the Law of the Sea Studies show overlapping territorial waters and economic zone claims from the eastern and western shore states, leaving no international waters for the passage of warships, particularly through the southern gateway to the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Austin’s operation is not innocent passage, as the international Law of the Sea requires, and it defies Yemen’s right to exercise prior authorization.
Russia’s response is no response, for the time being.
For a summary up to 2021 of the military record and the international law claims for the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, read this.
In an interview with a Russian-speaking American on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not explicitly address the new US intervention plan in the Middle East.
He did say that “Europe and the United States are now rushing in the Middle East, calling on the Lebanese, Iranians, Iraqis, and Syrians to do everything so that the war in Gaza does not spread to the surrounding territories. Perhaps they need to apply the same fervour to ensure that this does not happen in Ukraine.”
Also on Monday, in the Moscow newspaper Vedomosti, it was reported that Russian experts expect “most likely, the Americans will launch missile and bomb attacks on command centres and military depots of the Houthis, or targeted strikes by special forces may follow in order to eliminate the commanders of the movement. The operation will be roughly comparable to the actions of Western allies in Syria or Iraq.”
The newspaper claimed that, according to its source, “the military forces of Saudi Arabia and the UAE may participate in the operation – their armed forces and their proxies have been waging a sluggish war against Iran’s allies in Yemen since 2015. I think the Arab monarchies themselves would like to involve the Americans in the conflict, but it will not come to a full–scale war.”
The implication is that the Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, and Kremlin are reluctant to publicly condemn the Austin fleet operation move so as not to upset current Russian relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
What this means for Russia’s relationship with Iran materialized on Monday afternoon when the Iranian Ambassador to Moscow, Kasem Jilali (right), asked for a meeting at the Foreign Ministry, and met Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. If Yemen and the Red Sea were discussed, the official communiqué is keeping it secret. “During the conversation,” the ministry release says, “the Middle East agenda was discussed in detail, with an emphasis on developments in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone. There was general concern about the ongoing escalation in the Gaza Strip. The importance of intensifying international efforts aimed at an early ceasefire, providing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population and turning the situation into a political channel was stressed. The issues of the Syrian settlement were also touched upon, including the continuation of close coordination of efforts between Russia and Iran in the Astana format in the interests of supporting the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the SA [Syrian Arab Republic]”.
For analysis of the most recent round of Russian-Iranian negotiations, click to read.
In the past, Moscow officials have consistently defended the Yemeni state’s sovereignty, including its territorial waters in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Ministry has also defended “dialogue with the Houthis and other Yemeni political associations, as well as with all interested states”.
Russia has also proposed that the United Nations legalize and regulate all operations impacting Yemen.
But that was long ago. The last but one statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry mentioning the Houthis, the civil war in Yemen, and Saudi military intervention was issued six and a half years ago, on March 17, 2017: “We reaffirm our fundamental position in favour of an early cessation of hostilities and the resumption of a negotiation process in the Republic of Yemen, taking into account the interests of all leading political forces in the country. We continue to believe that the unilateral steps taken by the parties to the conflict, including the current court ruling, as well as the sea and air blockade of certain regions of Yemen controlled by the Houthis and Saleh supporters, are not conducive to creating a favourable environment for restoring trust and restarting the dialogue, and put off the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, which is so much needed by the long-suffering Yemeni people.”
In January 2018, Abdulmalik Al-Mekhlafi, Foreign Minister of the Aden-based Yemeni government, met Lavrov in Moscow for talks. “We believe,” Lavrov said at the press conference following their negotiations, “that the UN should henceforth be able to deliver humanitarian aid to Sanaa without fail. It is important to strive to lift the sea and air blockade, to remove all limitations on the deliveries of food, medicines and other prime necessities to all regions of Yemen with no exceptions…Yemen’s Foreign Minister Abdulmalik Al-Mekhlafi and we have agreed to maintain close contacts both directly and via our embassy in Yemen, which due to security reasons has been recently relocated from Sanaa to Riyadh. At the same time, we will continue our dialogue with the Houthis and other Yemeni political associations, as well as with all interested states, including the Arab coalition, on which the further developments in the country and around it depend. We will urge everyone who can contribute to the settlement and the transition from war to a political dialogue to do so as soon as possible.
There is no Foreign Ministry record of a meeting with Hisham Sharaf, Foreign Minister since 2016 of the Sanaa-based Yemeni (Houthi) government. The Russian Embassy in Sanaa was evacuated in December 2017.
In November 2019, Moscow appeared to be saying the only international Red Sea operation it would countenance for Yemen should be led by the United Nations (UN). “We”, declared the Ministry’s press department, “urge the parties to the Yemeni conflict to do everything in their power to keep up this positive change so as to be able to stop the hostilities altogether and to launch a UN-led process of peaceful settlement based on the regard for the interests of all the main political forces as well as religious and regional groups in Yemen. We are still convinced that these developments will not only benefit friendly Yemen but will also help to ensure security of all the neighbouring countries.”
The Chinese government approach appears to be different.
On Sunday, Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), the Chinese state-owned fleet company, announced that it is halting all shipments to and from Israeli seaports. However, unlike its European peers, OOCL did not say it will stop sailing through the Red Sea. The implication, a shipping source comments, is that Beijing has declared its support for the Arab-led blockade of Israel, and will negotiate directly with Houthi and Yemeni officials so that OOCL vessels will be able to navigate safely through the Red Sea and into the Suez Canal, and vice versa. The commercial advantage to the Chinese is plain, the source said. Whether the Chinese Navy will send escorts for Chinese-flagged cargo vessels remains to be seen. [What are Chinese playing at?]
The Yemeni group has vowed to continue targeting “Israel-linked” ships
The American-led multinational fleet off the coast of Yemen will not stop the Houthis from military operations in support of the Palestinians, the group announced on Tuesday.
Drone and missile attacks by the Houthis on international shipping in the Red Sea have already driven up insurance rates and led to several major carriers rerouting traffic around Africa at the cost of millions of dollars. The group has attacked vessels it claims are connected to Israel as a show of support for the Palestinians in Gaza. “Even if America succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, our military operations will not stop unless the genocidal crimes in Gaza stop… no matter the sacrifices it costs us,” Houthi spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said on X (formerly Twitter).
“Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of his actions,” al-Bukhaiti added. “The American-formed coalition is to protect Israel and militarize the sea without any justification, and will not stop Yemen from continuing its legitimate operations in support of Gaza.”
The group, which de facto runs Yemen, announced its support for the Palestinian cause at the end of October. On Monday, the US said it would assemble a naval task force to ensure “freedom of navigation” through the Red Sea in an operation dubbed ‘Prosperity Guardian.’
Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, and the UK will also participate in the operation, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Monday.
In an English-language post on Tuesday, al-Bukhaiti described the US-led force as “the Coalition of Shame” and its support for Israel “a stain on its history” that will lead to “expanding the scope of the conflict and increasing the risks to shipping lines.” A top Houthi official and negotiator, Mohammed Abdulsalam, told Reuters that the US-led mission was “essentially unnecessary” because the waters off Yemen were safe except for ships linked to – or headed for – Israel.
Yemen is strategically located on the north side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. About 12% of the world’s commercial shipping traffic transits through the area.
So far, five major international shipping companies – including CMA CGN, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) – have cited the spate of attacks to steer their ships away from the area. On Monday, Evergreen Cargo said it would no longer carry Israeli goods through the Red Sea. The UK oil giant BP has likewise rerouted its tankers around the Cape of Good Hope instead.