The African Sahel is revolting against western neocolonialism – ejecting foreign troops and bases, devising alternative currencies, and challenging the old multinationals. Multipolarity, after all, cannot flower without resistance paving its path.
By Pepe Escobar
The emergence of Axes of Resistance in various geographies is an inextricable byproduct of the long and winding process leading us toward a multipolar world. These two things – resistance to the Hegemon and the emergence of multipolarity – are absolutely complementary.
The Axis of Resistance in West Asia – across Arab and Muslim states – now finds as its soul sister the Axis of Resistance spanning the Sahel in Africa, west to east, from Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea.
Unlike Niger, where the change in power against neocolonialism was associated with a military coup, in Senegal, the power change comes straight from the polls.
Senegal plunged itself into a new era with the landslide victory of Bassirou Diomaye Faye, 44, in nationwide elections on 24 March. A former tax inspector who had just spent a fortnight stint in jail, Faye emerged with the profile of an underdog pan-African leader to turn the ‘most stable democracy in Africa,’ under French puppet incumbent Macky Sall, upside down.
The incoming Senegalese president now joins Ibrahim Traore, 36, in Burkina Faso, Aby Ahmed, 46, in Ethiopia, Andry Rajoelina, 48, in Madagascar, as well as future superstar Julius Malema, 44, in South Africa as part of the new, young pan-African generation focused on sovereignty. In his election manifesto, Faye pledged to reclaim Senegal’s sovereignty no less than eighteen times.
Geoeconomics is key to these shifts. As Senegal becomes a substantial oil and gas producer, Faye will aim to renegotiate mining and energy contracts, including the largest ones with British Petroleum (BP) and UK gold mine operator, Endeavor Mining.
Crucially, he plans to ditch the exploitative CFA franc – the French-controlled currency system used in 14 African states – even setting up a new currency as part of reshaping relations with neocolonial power France, Senegal’s top trading partner. Faye, echoing Comrade Xi Jinping, wants a “win-win” partnership.
Enter the Alliance of the Sahel States
Faye has not yet been clear on whether he intends to kick the French military out of Senegal. Were that to happen, the blow to Paris would be unprecedented, as embattled Petit Roi Emmanuel Macron and the French establishment consider Senegal the key player when it comes to blockading landlocked Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which have already left Paris in the (Sahel) dust.
The three latter states, which have just formed an Alliance of the Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel, AES, in the original French), are not only a major Paris nightmare after serial humiliations but also a big American headache – epitomized in the spectacular breakdown of military cooperation between Washington and Nigerien capital Niamey.
The culprit, according to the US Deep State, is, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Obviously, no one in the US Beltway has been paying due attention to the Russia–Africa diplomatic flurry since last year, involving all key players from the Sahel to the new African BRICS members Egypt and Ethiopia.
In sharp contrast to its prior regard of Niger as a staunch ally in the Sahel, Washington is now forced to present a calendar date to get its troops out of Niger – after a military cooperation deal was annulled. The Pentagon cannot be involved in military training in Nigerien territory anymore.
There are two key bases – in Agadez and Niamey – which the Pentagon spent over $150 million to build. Niamey was finished only in 2019 and is managed by the US military’s African Command, AFRICOM.
Operational objectives are, predictably, shrouded in mystery. The Niamey base is essentially an intel center, processing data collected by MQ-9 Reaper drones. The US Air Force also uses the Dirkou Aerodrome as a base for operations in the Sahel.
Now things get really exciting, because the presence of a de facto CIA drone base in Dirkou, manned by a handful of operatives, is not even acknowledged. This dark base allows intel collection everywhere in Central Africa, from west to north. Call it another classic example of former CIA director Mike Pompeo’s “We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal.”
There are roughly 1,000 US troops in Niger who may soon face ejection. The Americans are trying everything to stem the bleeding. Only this month, US Undersecretary of State for Africa Molly Phee visited Niger twice. Losing bases in Niger will translate into Washington following Paris in losing control of the Sahel – as Niger gets closer to Russia and Iran.
These bases are not essential to exercise surveillance over the Bab al-Mandeb; it’s all about the Sahel, with drones operating on their limit and violating every sovereign air space in sight.
Incidentally, a hefty delegation from Niamey visited Moscow in January. Then, last week, Putin discussed security cooperation in phone calls with Mali’s interim President, Assimi Goita, and Niger’s military junta President Abdourahmane Tchiani before talking to the Republic of Congo’s President Denis Nguesso.
Ivory Coast: The Empire turn-around
Pro-west puppet regimes are dwindling fast all across the African continent. The Alliance of the Sahel States – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – may be the vanguard of an African Axis of Resistance, but there’s more, in the form of South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt as full BRICS members – not to mention serious candidates for the next wave of BRICS+, such as Algeria and Nigeria.
Russia, diplomatically, and China, commercially, plus the full weight of the Russia–China strategic partnership, are clearly focused on the long game – counting on Africa as a whole as a key multipolar player. Additional evidence was provided once again during the multipolar conference last month in Moscow, where charismatic pan-African leader Kemi Seba from Benin was one of the superstars.
Pan-Eurasian diplomatic circles even allow themselves to joke about the recent hissy fits by Le Petit Roi in Paris. The utter humiliation of France in the Sahel is likely one of the drivers of Macron’s chest-thumping threats to send French troops to Ukraine – who would be turned into steak tartare by the Russians in record time – and his eagerness to support Armenia’s current Russophobic stunts.
Historically, the fact remains, that Africans considered the former USSR much more pliable and even supportive when it came to siphoning natural resources; that goodwill has now also been transferred to China.
As a regional integration platform, the Alliance of the Sahel States has everything it takes to become a game-changer. Senegal under Faye may eventually join, but Guinea already offers the geographical capacity to provide the alliance with credible maritime access. That will lead to the progressive extinction of the western-controlled, Nigeria-based ECOWAS.
Yet, never dismiss the Hegemon’s mighty tentacles. The Pentagon master plan does not entail abandoning Africa to a multipolar Russia–China–Iran sphere of influence. Yet no one across the Sahel’s Axis of Resistance buys the US ‘terror threat’ card anymore. There was virtually zero terror in Africa until 2011, when NATO turned Libya into a wasteland, then put boots on the ground and erected military bases across the continent.
So far, the Alliance of the Sahel States is winning the sovereignty-first information war, hands-down. But there’s no question the Empire will strike back. After all, the whole game is tied to the Beltway’s supreme paranoia of Russia taking over the Sahel and Central Africa.
Enter the Ivory Coast, now that Senegal may be about to start flirting with the Alliance of the Sahel States.
Ivory Coast is more strategic to Washington than, for instance, Chad because Ivorian territory is very close to the Sahel alliance. Still, Chad has already recalibrated its foreign policy, which is no longer Western-controlled and comes with a new emphasis on getting closer to Moscow.
What lies ahead for Empire? Perhaps US ‘anti-terror’ drones shared with Paris at the French base in the Ivory Coast to keep the Sahel alliance in check. Call it the humiliated Gallic rooster embracing the Hegemon in West Africa without receiving even the crumbs of a stale croissant.The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
Is Julius Malema the most dangerous man in South Africa?
His party wants to nationalise all. He may become kingmaker
The Economist Feb 15, 2024
As Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president, delivered his annual state-of-the-nation speech on February 8th, he looked remarkably nonchalant for the leader of a country beset by power cuts, staggering unemployment and rising crime. He appeared to have been cheered by small pleasures. For the first time since taking office in 2018, he was able finish the address without the threat of interruption, heckling or the sight of pugilistic opposition members being removed by security.
This was because the main instigator of parliamentary disorder in recent years was not there. Julius Malema, the populist leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), had been suspended from Parliament for the month of February, along with five other party officials, after storming the stage to demand Mr Ramaphosa’s resignation while he was delivering his state-of-the-nation speech last year.
Mr Ramaphosa could be forgiven for thinking that South African politics is an awful lot simpler without Mr Malema and his distinctive red overalls. As things stand, however, the combative opposition leader may hold the key to Mr Ramaphosa’s re-election later this year.
Post-apartheid South Africa is often lauded for its free and fair elections. But such is the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC)—the ruling party has never got less than 57% of the seats in the national assembly—that the results of those elections have always been foregone conclusions. Until now. Polls consistently suggest that the ANC could dip below 50% of the vote in the national and provincial elections slated to take place between May and August. (The date will be announced before February 23rd.) The reason is plain: citizens contend with daily electricity blackouts, some of the world’s highest crime rates and, recently, sharp increases in living costs. The ruling party’s appeal has also been severely dented by corruption scandals that have implicated senior leaders, including Jacob Zuma, a former president.
The most comprehensive poll to date, released this month by Ipsos, a research firm, showed support for the ANC dropping lower than even the most pessimistic figure predicted by political analysts—to below 40%. In this scenario the only way the ANC could realistically remain in power would be by forming a coalition with one of the two main opposition parties: the Democratic Alliance (DA), which is currently the second-largest party in Parliament, or Mr Malema’s EFF.
Of these options, ruling-party insiders consider the EFF one far more likely. “We are getting ready for Juju,” sighs an ANC official, referring to Mr Malema by his nickname. He ought to know what he is in for. Mr Malema cut his teeth in the ruling party’s youth league, where he was never far from controversy. As the league’s president in 2010 he was charged with hate speech for singing the song that has become his trademark at rallies: “Dubul’ ibhunu’” (“Kill the Boer”). Mr Malema argues that the lyrics, which are from an old anthem of the struggle against apartheid, should not be taken as a literal call to kill Afrikaners. But his increasingly radical policies, coupled with his scathing criticism of Mr Zuma, were too much for the party’s top brass, who suspended him in 2011.
In 2013 Mr Malema founded the EFF, which won 6% of the vote in 2014 and 11% in 2019. The recent Ipsos poll puts it at 19%, ahead of the DA‘s 17% (with 10% undecided). This is a remarkable testament to Mr Malema’s skill as a politician, even as he has continued to be a magnet for scandal.
“Over a fairly short but nevertheless extraordinary political career he has become the quintessential political entrepreneur,” says Micah Reddy, an investigative journalist who has reported extensively on corruption allegations that have dogged Mr Malema and his party. “He has artfully blended business and politics…and built up an impressive political fiefdom.” Mr Malema has denied wrongdoing.
The apparent surge in support for the EFF suggests that disgruntled former ANC voters are struggling to find a home in the DA, a centre-right party that has seen an exodus of black leaders in recent years. Instead, the EFF’s radical messaging is striking a wider chord.
“This is the weapon that will be used against the enemy of our revolution,” Mr Malema declared on February 10th, brandishing the party’s 265-page manifesto. The document is a wholehearted rejection of the rainbow nation that Nelson Mandela tried to forge. “The political changeover in 1994 did not bring true liberation,” Mr Malema writes in the manifesto. “It was a bluff which continues to subject black people to economic and social apartheid.”
Mr Malema proposes sweeping changes to the economy. These include land expropriation without compensation; the nationalisation of mines and banks, again without compensation; and the introduction of basic income grants for the unemployed. These are curious proposals, since everything the state already runs, such as Eskom, the power utility, is falling apart.
It is unclear how hard Mr Malema would push the ANC to adopt these ideas in a coalition. Where the EFF has been the junior partner in coalitions running cities, it seemed to care more about landing plum jobs than promoting its policies. Mr Malema would no doubt want a senior cabinet post in return for joining a coalition. That would bring his divisive and disruptive politics into the heart of the government. Though that could keep Mr Ramaphosa in power, it would hardly be a recipe for economic or political stability.
on April 3, 2024, 8:43 am