'Pepe Escobar has written a post where he reports that an Israeli F-35 carrying a nuclear weapon was shot down over Jordan by a Russian fighter.
While I respect Pepe as a journalist, his source is wrong.
Israel would never take such a precipitous action. Not only would it provide public acknowledgment of Israeli nuclear weapons capability, thereby putting Israel in open violation of existing agreements between it and the U.S., it would also put Israel in violation of the 1968 Outer Space Treaty prohibiting the deployment and/or use of nuclear weapons in space and the Biden administration’s recent admonishments in this regard.
Moreover, the scenario describes makes no sense in terms of the characterization of the weapons involved, both in terms of the alleged Russian-Israeli engagement, and what Israel would hope happens regarding EMP.
This is, in every way shape and form nonsensical reporting.
'Of course, I don't necessarily buy this story but, for the people debunking it primarily by saying that a shoot down of a nuke-carrying plane would have triggered the nuke--that's not the case at all. A nuke doesn't get armed until it's launched and even destroying it before that would not "set it off". The U.S. has actually dropped several live nukes by accident from planes before and they did not go off even after falling from 30,000ft altitude because they weren't armed. So while I think this story is not likely, it's certainly not for this particular reason. In fact, this story comports with several recent rumors that predate it that spoke about Israel planning to use precisely an EMP style attack on Iran, for instance: https://telanganatoday.com/israel-is-reportedly-trying-the-emp-attack-on-iran-what-is-it And now, as most have seen, the U.S. has been talking about using its new CHAMP microwave missile to do the same exact thing--fry Iranian plants with EMP pulses. So, given this context, Pepe's story is not entirely out of the blue or off-script per se, given what we know.'
further comments under that tweet:
Will Schryver@imetatronink I am skeptical bordering on dismissive of Escobar's second-hand story for several reasons - none of which concern the potential detonation of an unarmed nuclear device. But I would also note that some prior Iranian missile testing appears to be consonant with an EMP strike.
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771 The only real reason I'm even slightly entertaining it is because it beggars belief that someone of Pepe's stature would risk his hard-earned credibility/career over such a sensational story without really being convinced of its authenticity in ways we're not privy to.
Justin Glyn SJ @JustinGlynSJ An interesting backgrounder. In which case, what elements make you sceptical?
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771 The total concert of improbable elements together. If it was one or two alone, then maybe. But it's the improbable nuke, with the improbable fact that Russia would somehow know all about it before hand, with the improbable fact that the claimed shoot down occurred over Jordan, which is pretty unrealistic. Maybe if Russia had shot them down over Syria, it would make for a more realistic tale, at the least.
'Regarding Pepe Escobar’s post about an Israeli F-35 with a nuclear weapon/EMP over Iran:
Why an F-35?
Stealth?
Then you’re limited to a weapon that can be carried in its internal weapons bay.
We are now talking about an ASAT-type weapon—a missile launched from a plane that can make it to outer space.
(Anti-Satellite=ASAT)
Israel has no such weapon.
And if it did, it couldn’t fit in the internal weapons bay of an F-35.
Now, if Pepe had said that the aircraft was an F-15, we could entertain such a possibility, especially when including the need for externally mounting this weapon.
But he said F-35.
This kills the story right off the bat.
But, just playing along, let’s assume the Israelis built an ASAT-type weapon that could fit into the internal weapons bay of an F-35, or—just spitballing here—the Israelis decided to forego any effort of stealth and mount the missile externally, like the Russian Kinzhal/Mig-31 duo.
What size warhead could it carry?
The AIR-2 Genie air-to-air missile had a 1.5 kiloton warhead.
Why is this important?
Most Cold War EMP scenarios envisioned weapons of yields between 1 and 10 megatons.
The size of a warhead deliverable into outer space from an F-35 platform would be very small.
Without getting into the physics of nuclear weapons design/gamma ray generation potential, any realistic nuclear warhead that could fit on a missile deliverable into space by an F-35 would be of a very small yield.
As such, the size of the territory adversely impacted by the EMP produced would be very small.
As such, the scenario postulated by Pepe Escobar’s source is extremely risk averse, with little or no meaningful impact.
In short, it doesn’t make sense, even if it was able to be carried out, which it isn’t.'
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further comments
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Ἀπdreω Ἀββαδδ @ParadigmSlip Replying to @RealScottRitter So it's believable if it was an F-15?
Scott Ritter @RealScottRitter Only if Israel had an ASAT- type nuclear weapon designed to generate EMP.
Which it doesn’t.
And you still have the issue with warhead size.
The whole premise is ridiculous.
Sharmine Narwani @snarwani I don't think its worth getting mired in these details. 1) we don't know what capabilities Israel has today, 2) the details of @RealPepeEscobar's scoop may not have been conveyed accurately to him, 3) the most important part of this story is a Russian intervention to thwart an Israeli strike on Iran. That suggests the strategic military relationship between the RIC alliance is way more advanced than suspected. And that all hands are now on deck.
Scott Ritter@RealScottRitter Details are important.
They are the stones upon which the foundation of credibility is built.
I could provide a similar breakdown about why a Russian interception of an Israeli F-35 aircraft over Jordan/Iraq is implausible.
Pepe’s source fails on the details.
The Saaint@Saa_int WASHINGTON — The F-35A Joint Strike Fighter has been operationally certified to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bomb, a spokesman for the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) tells Breaking Defense.Mar 8, 2024
Scott Ritter @RealScottRitter Now launch the B-61 into space.
Thanks Ian. I don't do twitter/X, so your update/s are welcome. On MoA's Palestine thread, the posters are calling out Pepe for posting that. One of the posters has posted this, presumably from Pepe's X:
First of all, as much as I respect Scott, I am just a messenger of an extremely explosive intel leak relayed by an unimpeachable source.
An Asian source - that's all I can reveal.
I asked for surefire confirmation several times and only published the information when the source confirmed a big world power totally validated it - but would remain mum.
The source also stressed there is a consensus among big powers that the information should be treated in "this information will self-destruct in five seconds" style.
This never happened.
If the sources retracts, and it's deep into the night now in Asia, of course I will retract the post - with apologies.
Meanwhile, I will soon publish a physics analysis of what may have happened - or not."
Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 21 2024 11:49 utc | 229
It seems very clear he realised how bad it would look if he was wrong and pushed his source hard for confirmations. It also seems clear he rates his source and makes it sound like it's at a pretty senior level.
So, the obvious scenarios are a). source was mistaken. The stressing of confirmations seems to indicate it couldn't really be a mistake.
Or, b). the source misled Pepe for some reason or someone misled the source who in turn passed it on.
So I think the main question is what reason would someone have for leaking this knowing it was false?
One scenario would be, as Dan noted and as was mentioned on the original X thread, that it had appeared in the Israeli press as a potential response so maybe this is intended to discourage them from actually going ahead with it by showing how it could easily spiral out of control and getting everyone else lined up against it.
I'm not sure what a "physics analysis" of what may or may not have happened is going to help....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
Thanks for that. Seems Ray has been told it's not kosher but he's waiting to see if the obvious clean up that would be needed happens or not so he doesn't have to call Pepe out.
It's interesting that he too rates P.E.'s sources as highly placed and reliable....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
Since when did extraordinary claims suddenly stop requiring extraordinary evidence?
Without physical evidence, its just a game of weighing up probabilities ,.
And what is the point in that?
Cellphones are absolutely everywhere, and there is a big incentive and no real downside to someone publishing some footage if it exists.
So, you can just file it away as a story, that sounds flawed, but can’t be ruled out, and keep it in suspended animation absent any supporting evidence.
As for “unimpeachable sources”: For god’s sake, is there any such thing? Do intelligence officials say things to reporters, ever, in order to educate the public? Any intillegence officer with such an attitude would be in the wrong career for sure. Pepe Escobar, if he actually has unimpeachable sources, would have zero doubt about this at all. Its obvious even to me.
- Shyaku
Re: Since when did extraordinary claims suddenly stop requiring extraordinary evidence?
It's telling that the flight and naval traffic tracker people are always pointing out when things occur in the normal run of things but none of them have mentioned anything here.
It's such a massive claim that you would expect a lot more to have come out if it had actually happened. The lack of reference to where this actually happened is also a bit of an issue as there would be obvious traffic to do the clean-up or cover-up if you like.
There's a lot of eyes on the Jordan/Syria border too so any clean-up going on in that area would surely attract some attention.
It doesn't seem to have any traction anywhere else. I'm still thinking it was a pre-emptive false leak to try and get international opinion lined up against this kind of action to inhibit Israel doing anything like it.
...no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
"where this actually happened" should be "supposedly happened" nm
....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
That's another possibility; to make a commentator appear unreliable, leak something big that proves to be false to them.
I haven't been following his output too closely but I'm sure he hasn't been cheerleading for the apartheid state in the last six months....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
In what can be considered the most crucial podcast of 2024 so far, Professor Michael Hudson – the author of seminal works such as Super-Imperialism and the recent The Collapse of Antiquity , among others – clinically lays down the essential background to understand the unthinkable: a 21st century genocide broadcast live 24/7 to the whole planet.
In an email exchange, Prof. Hudson detailed he’s now essentially “spilling the beans” about how, “50 years ago when I worked at the Hudson Institute with Herman Kahn [the model for Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove], Israeli Mossad members were being trained, including Uzi Arad. I made two international trips with him, and he outlined to me pretty much what has happened today. He became head of Mossad and is now Netanhayu’s advisor.”
Prof. Hudson shows how “the basic Gaza plan is how Kahn designed the Vietnam War’s division into sectors, with canals cutting off each village, as the Israelis are doing to Palestinians. Also already at time, Kahn pinpointed Balochistan as the area to foment disruption in Iran and the rest of the region.”
It’s not by accident that Balochistan has been CIA jewel territory for decades, and recently with the added incentive of the disruption by any means necessary of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a key connectivity node of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
so he's not exactly been endearing himself to the empire....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
on April 21, 2024, 3:32 pm