President Putin’s press conference on Wednesday in Uzbekistan might have been the most unusual and extraordinary event in his 24-year political career. After addressing the Constitutional issues surrounding Ukrainian President Zelensky’s decision to remain in office beyond his four-year term, Putin delivered a brief but disturbing statement on NATO’s plan to fire long-range weapons at targets inside Russia. Putin made it clear that Russia would respond to these attacks and that the countries that provided the weapons systems would be held responsible. He also gave a very detailed description of how the systems work and how they require contractors from the country-of-origin be directly involved in their operation. What is so remarkable about Putin’s comments is not the fact that they bring the world closer to a direct confrontation between nuclear-armed adversaries, but that he had to remind political leaders in the West that Russia is not going to sit back and be their punching bag. Here’s part of what Putin said:
With regard to the strikes, frankly, I am not sure what the NATO Secretary General is talking about. When he was the Prime Minister of Norway, (we had good relations) and I am positive he was not suffering from dementia back then. If he is talking about potentially attacking Russia’s territory with long-range precision weapons, he, as a person who heads a military-political organisation, even though he is a civilian like me, should be aware of the fact that long-range precision weapons cannot be used without space-based reconnaissance. This is my first point.
My second point is that the final target selection and what is known as launch mission can only be made by highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data, technical reconnaissance data. For some attack systems, such as Storm Shadow, these launch missions can be put in automatically, without the need to use Ukrainian military. Who does it? Those who manufacture and those who allegedly supply these attack systems to Ukraine do. This can and does happen without the participation of the Ukrainian military. Launching other systems, such as ATACMS, for example, also relies on space reconnaissance data, targets are identified and automatically communicated to the relevant crews that may not even realise what exactly they are putting in. A crew, maybe even a Ukrainian crew, then puts in the corresponding launch mission. However, the mission is put together by representatives of NATO countries, not the Ukrainian military. Putin Presser in Uzbekistan, Kremlin
Let’s summarize:
The long-range precision weapons (missiles) are provided by NATO countries The long-range precision weapons are manned by experts or contractors from the country of origin The long-range precision weapons must be linked to space reconnaissance data provide by the US or NATO The targets in Russia are also provided by space reconnaissance data provide by the US or NATO
The point that Putin is trying to make is that the long-range missiles are made by NATO, furnished by NATO, operated and launched by NATO contractors, whose targets are selected by NATO experts using space reconnaissance data provided by NATO. In every respect, the prospective firing of long-range precision weapons at targets in Russia, is a NATO-US operation. Thus, there should be no confusion about who is responsible. NATO is responsible which means that NATO is effectively declaring war on Russia. Putin’s lengthy comments merely underscore this critical point. Here’s more from Putin:
So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake. They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory. It is a serious matter and, without a doubt, we are watching this very carefully. Putin Presser in Uzbekistan, Kremlin
Naturally, the western media has focused all its attention on the paragraph above, and for good reason; Putin is stating the obvious: ‘If you attack Russia, we will retaliate.’ That is the underlying message. Here are a few of Friday’s (hysterical) headlines:
Vladimir Putin Threatens ‘All-Out War’ if Ukraine Uses Western Weapons to Hit Russia — as Volodymyr Zelensky Asks Allies for Their Permission, MSN.com Why is Putin again threatening a nuclear war?, The Interpreter Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war, Reuters TYRANT’S THREAT: Vladimir Putin threatens all-out war if Ukraine uses Western weapons to hit Russia, The Sun (and the best of all) Time to Call Putin’s Bluff, CNN
Is that what this is all about; testing Putin to see if he’s bluffing?
If it is, it is a uniquely risky strategy. But there is a grain of truth to what they say. After all, Putin is warning that any attack on Russia will trigger an immediate and ferocious retaliatory strike. And he is advising the leaders of ‘small, densely populated NATO countries’ to consider how a nuclear attack by Russia might impact their prospects for the future. Would they really put their entire civilization at risk to find out whether Putin is bluffing or not? Here’s Putin again:
Look at what your Western colleagues are reporting. No one is talking about shelling Belgorod (in Russia) or other adjacent territories. The only thing they are talking about is Russia opening a new front and attacking Kharkov. Not a word. Why is that? They did it with their own hands. Well, let them reap the fruits of their ingenuity. The same thing can happen in case the long-range precision weapons which you asked about is used.
More broadly, this unending escalation can lead to serious consequences. If Europe were to face those serious consequences, what will the United States do, considering our strategic arms parity? It is hard to tell. Putin Presser in Uzbekistan, Kremlin
Putin seems genuinely mystified by the West’s behavior. Do US and NATO leaders really think they can attack Russia with long-range missiles and Russia won’t respond? Do they really think their ridiculous propaganda can impact the outcome of a clash between two nuclear-armed superpowers? What are they thinking or ARE they thinking? We don’t know. We seem to have entered ‘uncharted stupidity’ where desperation and ignorance converge to create a foreign policy that is utter madness. This is from an article at Tass News Service:
NATO countries that have approved strikes with their weapons on Russian territory should be aware that their equipment and specialists will be destroyed not only in Ukraine, but also at any point from where Russian territory is attacked, the Russian Security Council’s Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on his Telegram channel, noting that the participation of NATO specialists could be seen as a casus belli.
“All their military equipment and specialists fighting against us will be destroyed both on the territory of former Ukraine and on the territory of other countries, should strikes be carried out from there against Russian territory,” Medvedev warned.
He added that Moscow proceeded from the fact that all long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine were already “directly operated by servicemen from NATO countries”, which is tantamount to participation in the war against Russia and a reason to start combat operations. NATO weapons to be hit in any country from where Russia may be attacked — Medvedev, Tass
There it is in black and white. Where Putin chose to take the diplomatic approach, Medvedev opted for the hammer-blow. ‘If you attack Russia, we will bomb you back to the Stone Age.’ Not much wiggle-room there. But perhaps clarity is what’s needed for people who do not understand the potential consequences of their actions. In any event, no one in Washington or Brussels can say they weren’t warned.
We cannot exclude the possibility that Washington actually wants to expand the war despite the fact that cities across Eastern Europe could be incinerated in the process. It could be that beltway warhawks see a broader conflict as the only way to achieve their geopolitical ambitions. Putin knows that this is a real possibility, just as he knows that there is a sizable constituency in Washington that support the use of nuclear weapons. This might explain why he is proceeding so cautiously, because he knows there are crazies within the US establishment who look forward to a clash with their old rival Russia so they can implement their pet-theories about “usable” nukes for tactical advantage. Here’s Putin:
The United States has a theory of a ‘preventive strike’…Now they are developing a system for a ‘disarming strike’. What does that mean? It means striking at control centres with modern high-tech weapons to destroy the opponent’s ability to counterattack.
Putin has devoted a considerable amount of time studying US Nuclear Doctrine, and it has him deeply concerned. After all, didn’t the Biden administration launch an unprecedented attack on “a key element of Russia’s nuclear umbrella” just last week?
Indeed, they did.
And hasn’t the US (via its Nuclear Posture Review) rebranded the offensive use of nuclear weapons as a justifiable act of defense?
It has.
And doesn’t this revision provide US warhawks with the institutional framework needed to launch a nuclear attack without fear of legal prosecution?
It does.
And haven’t these same warhawks developed their respective theories on “first-strike”, “preemption” and “disarming strike” in order to lay the groundwork for a first-strike nuclear attack on a geopolitical rival of Washington?
They have.
And doesn’t US Nuclear Doctrine state that nuclear weapons can be used “in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.”
It does.
And does that definition include economic rivals like China?
Yes.
And is that a defense of a “first strike” nuclear weapon attack?
It is.
And does that mean that the United States no longer regards its nuclear arsenal as purely defensive but as an essential instrument for preserving the “rules-based order”?
Yes, it does.
And does Putin know that there are powerful actors in the political establishment and deep state who would like to see the taboo on nuclear weapons lifted so they can be used in more situations and with greater frequency?
He does.
And does he know that Washington regards Russia and China as the primary threats to US global hegemony and the “rules-based order”?
Yes.
And does he realize that if the US implements its first-strike policy Russia may not have the time to retaliate?
He does.
And does Putin realize that foreign policy analysts regard him as a restrained and reasonable man who may not pull the trigger or respond promptly when Russia faces a preemptive attack that will inflict the strategic defeat on Moscow the West seeks?
No, he doesn’t. He still thinks that possessing a large cache of nuclear weapons will deter US aggression. But a large cache of nuclear weapons is no deterrent when your opponent is convinced you won’t use them.
Sometimes being reasonable is not the best way to fend off an adversary. Sometimes you have to be a little crazy.
That’s a lesson Putin needs to learn. Fast. The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
F* sake, from bad to worse, NATO maniacs need to be stopped asafp (nm)
I've always appreciated the risks involved in stoking this proxy war and crossing the various red lines that they seem to have just rolled through head-first, but the enormous mind-bogglingly horrific consequences of nuclear warfare always acted to reassure me a little bit; almost saying to myself, they are idiots but they are not insane.
Now....I don't know. I grew up in the 70s and 80s when there was a real fear of nuclear war actually breaking out; the "Threads" generation if you like. I don't think I was this concerned back then.
The latest step with allowing US/NATO weapons to strike inside Russia is just jaw-droppingly bonkers, as the article at top shows. Given that a lot of the time, that will mean NATO personel involved in some way, it's really REALLY walking the razor's edge.
I might go and watch "Dr. Strangelove" while I sitll have time. Someone's going to have to answer to the Coca Cola company....possibly all of us....no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
Re: Is anybody else starting to get properly nervous?
American Caesar has little left but brinkmanship. I'm confident that the Russians will keep cool heads but when the septics run out of bluffs, they might take more risks. Since this was always going to be what happened when the Russian revival of sovereignty and Chinese economic primacy were joined together, I hope that both have planted the seeds of lots of surprises to confound Caesar when the time comes.The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
I wasn't alive for the scariest points of the cold war so can't make the comparison, but the way western elites have been acting throughout the Ukraine debacle has been frighteningly single-minded and apparently completely reckless, not thinking of the consequences. And there's practically no opposition, at least not within 'polite' society. At least with the war on trrr invasions there was mass opposition including some of the liberal class, but with this even stop the war and the furthest left unions have struggled to articulate even mild dissent, and been completely hounded for it. And this before the country is even (officially) at war.
It feels like they've gone all in with what they believe to be a surefire winning hand, but not noticed the possibility of the other player landing a flush or other hand that would blow them out of the water. And we'll be the ones who have to pick up the pieces. It's difficult to know what Russia can do to make western leaders back down at this point. Hopefully they can hit an economic pressure point that hurts the elite interests really badly, rather than military strikes, conventional or (gods forbid) nuclear. We should be thankful they're not like the US targeting enemy populations to 'make the economy scream' and force regime change, though the self-defeating result of the western-imposed sanctions could eventually force the same result.
Where even are the artists and musicians on this? Silent or complicit. This Billy Bragg song is as relevant as ever:
but fast forward to 2022 and here's what we get: 'Billy Bragg @billybragg 25 Feb 2022 Sad to hear a few left wingers say invasion is justified because Ukraine is run by ‘fascists’, echoing Putin’s claim that he wants to ‘de-nazify’ Ukraine. His use of ‘genocide’ as an excuse is as dodgy as the 45 minutes claim Blair cooked up to justify invading Iraq
Sorry, but two of those things are not true. Ukraine is not run by facsists - the president is Jewish. NATO did not provoke Putin, it accepted requests from democratically elected govts that asked to join.
NATO was formed to protect democratic nations from Russian invasion. It's raison d'etre is to come to the aid of other memebers if they are attacked. No I wouldn't be happy to see Warsaw Pact extend to France but without NATO that could have happened.' - https://nitter.poast.org/billybragg/status/1497239413658566658#m
Somehow the empire has to be humbled, and in such a way that it doesn't lash out and destroy the whole world out of spite, "if we can't have it all then no-one can".
Posted by Ken Waldron on June 4, 2024, 11:41 pm, in reply to "Yup"
- It's not a Billy Bragg song.
It's by Dick Gaughan who lived in the building where I was born. I had the honour of meeting him a couple of times and think I can say he was a lot smarter and more genuine than Bragg ever was: Dick knew what he was talking about.
Posted by Ken Waldron on June 5, 2024, 12:15 am, in reply to "Recte..."
I think Dick as a boy actually lived in the same stair as us...it was a real run down Victorian cheap-build squeeze-em-in build where you could hardly swing a cat between the doors. The steps up to the " single ends" were all worn in the middle by several inches...there were certainly more rats than people living there. That poor part of Edinburgh: strictly Leith was were a lot of Irish migrants ended up which is why the posh folk called it disparagingly "Little Glasgow".
Re: Recte...
Posted by Ian M on June 5, 2024, 12:37 am, in reply to "Re: Recte..."
Maybe you recognise the location in the opening part of this 1983 beeb documentary, then? (from 1.40ish)
Posted by Ken Waldron on June 5, 2024, 1:04 am, in reply to "Re: Recte..."
The street he lived in and I was born in as mentioned in the film was Graham street. It was so undistinguished it was hardly worth the silver bromide on a photographers plate...so There's only about two or three pictures exist. Must have been demolished I reckon by circa 1970.
1970, so quite a while before the film then. Too bad, might have made for some interesting interactions with the filmmakers! Glad to introduce you to the film, there's a bit more about Leith after the first song snippet, talking more about the industry and economic relations with other parts of the world via shipping. I found the interviewer a bit snooty and his questions quite blunt and untactful, but Gaughan's personality shines through and there are some really good performances captured. Clear as a bell...
"1970, so quite a while before the film then. Too bad, might have made for some interesting interactions with the filmmakers"
Must have been some time about then. You can see him in front of that fence pointing to the void where it was.
I went back a few times over the years and it lay mostly as a gap site until I think the nineties or later. Interesting name btw. Graham is a Scottish spelling of "Grim": a personal name but also a byword for Odin or the Devil.
The family of that name was a notorious border cattle raiding clan and the very name banished in Scotland...some returned under the name Ma'harg... Graham backwards.
Strange to say I still occasionally dream of being an Otter or water creature in the water of Leith which flows nearby...a repetitive dream I've had since childhood. Don't ask me what that means...I have no idea!
Interesting background, thanks. Won't speculate on the dream, but it sounds quite soothing. Better than my recurring dreams of being late for trains and having to run through crowded stations...
Funnily enough I got the Gaughan record, 'A different kind of love song', a few months ago and assumed he had covered Bragg - d'oh! Well at least that's a bit less credit I'm forced to give Bragg...Tell your story; Ask a question; Interpret generously http://storybythethroat.wordpress.com/tell-ask-listen/
Re: Yup
Posted by RaskolnikovX on June 5, 2024, 6:50 am, in reply to "Yup"
One thing you bring up is one of the main points for me; the lack of opposition. When I was growing up with the threat of "the bomb", CND was a massive presence even if you only counted the badges you'd see people wearing. It was in the conversation, on the streets and in the news.
Now it still exists but it has been starved of any publicity and politically there is nobody that talks about cutting back nuclear arms, or ideally removing them (although I think that genie is never going to go back in the bottle).
In fact it's even worse than no opposition, as Ken notes below; their use has become something that is actually considered. "Battlefield nukes" are just treated as another option.
I just read that new Annie Jacobsen book "Nuclear War" and while it was slightly predictable than the "bad guy" that started the end of the world was North Korea it was a really chilling read; actually gripping even though you didn't want to be "into" it. It's a minute by minute dramatisation of how a nuclear armageddon could come about and reminds us of quite how little control there is once even one missile starts flying. The stuff about nuclear submarines is particularly frightening and a reminder of how sanitised it all is; when they come up in the news it's always "nuclear deterrent" this and "submarine fleet" that instead of undetecable end of the world many times over machines.
I think she should have used Ukraine/Russia/NATO as the inititating theatre and given a few people more pause for thought. ...no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
Re: Yup
Posted by t on June 5, 2024, 2:08 pm, in reply to "Re: Yup"
Just after reading your comment I came across this Duran interview with Jeffrey Sachs where one of the major themes was .. nuclear war. Like you, me and others, they find it baffling how blase the current political class is about the nuclear war .. I saw about first 40 odd minutes:
How a nuclear war starts: Second-by-second timeline | Annie Jacobsen
Posted by RaskolnikovX on June 5, 2024, 2:14 pm, in reply to "Re: Yup"
[url=
...no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party...So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.
Six minute window for launch based on a blip on the radar
Horrible and depressing, but thanks, we need to know about it.
Re: Yup
Posted by Ian M on June 6, 2024, 12:05 am, in reply to "Re: Yup"
Yes, there were some mutterings about the cost of trident renewal but that was, what, 10 years ago? Since then, nothing, unless you count Theresa May's insistence that she would unhesitatingly push the button and some slight pushback against that, if I recall.
The power of goodthink seems much stronger these days, dissent and even taking the time to formulate your own opinion so much rarer, and those with courage to voice unpopular opinions ever fewer. Don't know what it's going to take to shake people out of it. Rather, the political class. They frankly don't seem sane at this point.
The absolute horror of nuclear war seems to have fallen down the memory hole... To hear people total of " tactical" this and "battlefield" that...It's all bullshit. One spark ignites the flame...then we are dead or if not living in a world of horror. We had a lovely old Japanese lacquered photo album at home...flick through it and you found my father's pictures of " Time magazine atomic bomb victim no 1" : the Japanese man's English advertising said on his stall where he sold various ( doubtless still radioactive) memorabilia to tourists...blast-impregnated shadows on various objects...flip the page and there he is from the back lifting his shirt to reveal his own shadow: where the skin on his own back was removed in the blast... Flip the page again...official blast photographs from Montebello and Christmas Island where my father and his friends were issued...um.. sunglasses as "protection" against the nuclear explosions before returning to sweat maintaining the ships boilers: one of which had to be removed on return apparently being "too radioactive..."
Turn a few pages...see your sister in a photograph with the pulling her hair down to cover the scarring on her face because she was born with half her jaw missing and a clever surgeon had the bright idea to replace it with one of her ribs so she could eat...
Let me say this: nuclear war does not end with the survivors: It is generational war. It destroys he children of the children. It should be unthinkable...it is insanity to try play with it in a fucking game of brinkmanship.
..is how they live their lives ..
Posted by Shyaku on June 6, 2024, 1:25 pm, in reply to "Brinkmanship..."
.. in the business world.
Its just business. The biggest psychos float to the top.
Normal people are filtered out way down the chain.
So you end up on one side with people for whom intimidation got them everything they ever got in their lives, and on the other side the people were selected by centuries of successfully withstanding any and all intimidation.
on June 4, 2024, 1:25 pm
