I think we are on the cusp of a major escalation in the war in Ukraine, with U.S. assets likely to be targeted in the coming days. It is one thing for Ukraine to hit military targets inside Russia, but Ukraine’s attack with U.S. supplied missiles today on tourists sunbathing on the beaches of Sevastopol breached a Russian-redline that is likely to provoke a significant Russian response, which will include targeting U.S. reconnaissance aircraft operating in the Black Sea and the Baltic Ocean. And that is for starters.
Here is the Russian Ministry of Defense announcement about the attack:
The Ukrainian military launched several US-made ATACMS long-range missiles armed with highly controversial cluster munitions on Russia’s Crimea on Sunday, resulting in numerous civilian casualties, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has said.
The strike was first reported by Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. He said that the attack killed at least three people, including two children. The death toll later rose to four. According to Russia’s Health Ministry, 124 people were injured, including 27 children.
Imagine the reaction in the United States if Russia detonated cluster munitions over Miami Beach, killing and wounding more than one hundred, including children. The American people would demand a strong response. Well, that is exactly what is happening now in Russia:
At the moment when ATACMS were launched at Sevastopol a US RQ-4 Global Hawk long-range surveillance drone was detected over the Black Sea, according to military correspondent Aleksey Borzenko.
“This drone was practically used to direct the missiles that were going to Crimea,” Borzenko told Sputnik. “I believe that it is necessary to create a large unmanned zone in the Black Sea – between 100 and 300 miles – in the aftermath of the tragedy. These Global Hawks should not be allowed to get to the distance from which they could direct ATACMS missiles.”
Borzenko is not an isolated, fringe voice calling for a major response. Civilian and military officials en masse are demanding retaliation. The West has ignored the dire warnings issued by Putin and Lavrov over the last two weeks.
The video blogger, Monkey Werx, posted a piece on Thursday (the 20th) that reported there was no U.S. drone activity in the Black Sea for the preceding three days. We will have to wait till Monday to get his update of U.S. and NATO activity in the Black Sea during this weekend. We are likely to see confirmation of the Russian claim that a drone, perhaps the Global Hawk, was scooping up intelligence, which was then passed to the Ukrainians who, in turn, used that information to program the ATACMS that hit Sevastopol.
Using cluster munitions on beach goers decked out in skimpy bathing suits is an act of state-sponsored terrorism. There is no justifiable military reason for targeting this area. While this is far from the first time that Ukrainians have rocketed civilians and killed children in Russian territory, who were busy playing minutes before being shredded by a Western supplied weapon, this attack comes on the heels of specific, direct warnings by the Russian Government that any future strikes in Russia with Western supplied missiles would be met with a swift and forceful response. Monkey Werx makes a point during his video — one I have made repeatedly — that the amount of U.S. aerial surveillance, B-52 flights and other combat aircraft flying just outside Russian air space is a total provocation and would elicit a strong response from the United States if Russia was doing that to us.
I believe that Russia will now kick the war into a higher gear and Ukraine, along with its Western allies, will experience a new level of devastation. I don’t know if this was a deliberate effort by the Biden Administration to provoke a Russian military response, foolishly believing that a Russian response to the Sevastopol attack will rally the American public around the fading fortunes of Joe Biden. If so, it is a stupid, counterproductive bet.
on June 24, 2024, 1:51 pm