President Zelensky has spoken about developing a peace plan by the end of November in an interview broadcast on NHK television. Zelensky insisted he cannot agree to ceasefire proposals until Russia ends its occupation, but that is not going to happen. Zelensky obviously knows this and is simply trying to project strength because there is no point entering negotiations sounding weak! I expect his biggest motivating factor is the possibility of a Trump victory in November. If Trump wins, Zelensky will be forced to the negotiating table in a weaker position, so best prepare now while Ukraine can count on at least some US military support.
With every passing day, Ukraine is losing ground in the Donetsk Oblast, and the areas around Pokrovsk and Toretsk are taking a battering as Putin prioritises the capture of these logistic hubs. While the geniuses in the British military argue Ukraine must be given what it needs to crush Putin, even Zelensky is sounding more realistic about what is achievable.
"It is extremely difficult in the Donetsk directions, and it is on Pokrovsky during these weeks that the largest number of Russian assaults are the most severe enemy attacks," Zelensky wrote in his evening address on July 28th.
Russia is capturing railway lines and highways that are used to supply Ukrainian troops, leaving them stranded, and no amount of arms shipments is going to let Ukraine recapture land it has lost. Thankfully, Starmer has rejected Zelensky’s request to allow Stormshadow missiles with a 186-mile range to strike deep inside Russia. Perhaps Mr Trilateral commission isn’t stupid enough to start World War III, after all. We can but hope.
If the Ukraine war ends, it means the UK can finally use the £3 billion a year it was sending Zelensky to lift the two-child benefit cap, right? Right? Not only can Ukrainians stop dying, but our kids can actually start eating! That has to be a win-win.
The US “accidentally” gave Ukraine an extra $6.2 billion last year due to an “accounting error”, but even that wasn’t enough. The head of Ukraine's Budget Committee is saying Ukrainian soldiers will soon have no salary without additional funds from the US. I can’t imagine the American people are happy to pay the salaries of a foreign military to fight a war they can’t win. Arms manufacturers might have done nicely out of this conflict, but almost everyone else seems to be getting poorer.
Zelensky spoke of the EU using economic leverage over Beijing so it pressures Moscow to end the war. Economic factors will be the reason the war ends, just as they were the key reason it began. It’s getting to the point where the war is too painful for all involved, especially Europe with its soaring energy costs.
Sadly, our biggest warmongers would still rather spend money on bombs than our own people. The UK’s former Chief of the General Staff, Lord Dannatt, wrote that NATO is giving Ukraine enough to keep limping on, but not enough to smash Moscow’s forces completely. “What else could explain the West's ambiguity over the use of long-range weapons to attack targets in Russia?” he asked, seemingly oblivious to the possibility there is no other option. The fact we put such narrowminded men in charge of our military is worrying to say the least.
Zelensky said he plans to talk with his allies about Ukraine’s territorial integrity, which presumably means how much territory he should be prepared to concede. I’m unclear why the opinions of foreign leaders are relevant here, unless Zelensky is taking his orders from them. The Ukrainian president has previously said that any concession of territory should be agreed by Ukrainians in a referendum. I happen to agree, but the only people who should vote are the people living in those occupied areas.
Prior to the war, it seemed clear the Donbas wanted independence, but Article 73 of the Ukrainian constitution says all Ukrainians must get to vote on its independence. This would be like saying the English, Welsh and Northern Irish must get a vote on Scottish independence.
The situation is different than it was prior to the war though. The Donbas would not be independent from Russia and while that might sound unpalatable to many, it’s up to the people to decide their fate. If they don’t want the war to continue, it should stop. It doesn’t occur to western onlookers that people in the Donbas might not be as supportive of the war effort as those in Kyiv.
The fact Zelensky is now talking about peace shows the option of negotiation was available all along, and those of us who pointed out this war was unwinnable were correct. "I think all of us understand that we have to finish the war as soon as possible, of course not to lose people... people’s lives." Zelensky said as though he has just noticed the staggering death toll.
Sadly, nothing has been achieved from the Ukrainian perspective in two and a half years of fighting, but from the NATO perspective, they’ve learnt how their weapons and tactics perform against Russia on the battlefield. They have killed many Russians without losing a single NATO soldier, although most of the dead are conscripts who, from Putin’s perspective, are very much replaceable.
NATO had the motivation to drag this conflict out for as long as possible to bleed Russia and destroy its economy, but it appears to have failed in those objectives. Who cares though? All it cost was a few hundred thousand Ukrainian lives, not to mention all those Russian men and boys. What did those lives matter when we got to cheer on a war on social media for a couple of years and feel good about ourselves?The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
on July 29, 2024, 12:07 pm