If a recently reinaugurated President Trump did call Putin and declare "enough is enough", I could imagine Putin sounding placating but by the end of the call having Trump declare he was open to the idea of reducing sanctions, especially the ones that hurt the American economy, and returning to Russia its seized funds, especially if it was the European Union that had to eat the cost of that.
If the USA stopped being hostile to Russia, then Europe would have to read the room and either follow Trump's lead or suffer the consequences.
With the Russian Federation occupying an important chunk of formerly Ukrainian territory, its economy supercharged by a reduction of sanctions and returned capital, and with Ukraine's military and economy no longer substantially bankrolled by Uncle Sam and Germany, the situation of Ukraine vis-a-vis the Russian Federation should reach a rational stabilization. If Russia somehow either ended up with Odessa or had it cut off, than the hearts and minds within Kiev would have to adapt to the Russian Federation having it by the balls.
In my mind the question is whether or not the Russian Federation will have more or less occupied the territory it would need to have to feel secure by the time Trump started to sound insistent when on the phone. Trump knows about negotiating, and should know that appearing to have a win in negotiating with Russia would be a lot easier if he waited to "talk turkey" until the Russian Federation clearly had the upper hand.
Imo, Putin would be much more amenable to ceasing seizing Ukrainian territory once the Russiah Federation felt that, in conjunction with the right settlement, it had enough of a buffer zone that it couldn't be easily threatened by a later resurgence of Ukrainian or Western belligerence.
Trump's dealings with China could go smoother once Russia had returned to a non-war like state, and was once again more about peaceful trade than it was about military alliances.
And in exchange for "letting China be China", I think Trump could find them willing to sign deals that would assist in keeping the American economy humming. Trump is all about making profit, and I think as long as other nations see themselves as being included in that, mutually beneficial arrangements with them can be much more easily arranged.
The MIC loses relevance when negotiations aren't based on American intimidation, and so they prefer a President like Biden or Harris over a President like Trump. Trump can be a warmonger, and he is an Imperialist, but he's basically a negotiator. Other politicians use negotiations as a fallback or an adjunct to getting what they want by way of military dominance.
If Trump can negotiate peaceful settlements and trade deals, it would be a big blow to the influence of the MIC, and they rather he doesn't get the chance to try.
If a recently reinaugurated President Trump did call Putin and declare "enough is enough", I could imagine Putin sounding placating but by the end of the call having Trump declare he was open to the idea of reducing sanctions, especially the ones that hurt the American economy, and returning to Russia its seized funds, especially if it was the European Union that had to eat the cost of that.
If the USA stopped being hostile to Russia, then Europe would have to read the room and either follow Trump's lead or suffer the consequences.
With the Russian Federation occupying an important chunk of formerly Ukrainian territory, its economy supercharged by a reduction of sanctions and returned capital, and with Ukraine's military and economy no longer substantially bankrolled by Uncle Sam and Germany, the situation of Ukraine vis-a-vis the Russian Federation should reach a rational stabilization. If Russia somehow either ended up with Odessa or had it cut off, than the hearts and minds within Kiev would have to adapt to the Russian Federation having it by the balls.
In my mind the question is whether or not the Russian Federation will have more or less occupied the territory it would need to have to feel secure by the time Trump started to sound insistent when on the phone. Trump knows about negotiating, and should know that appearing to have a win in negotiating with Russia would be a lot easier if he waited to "talk turkey" until the Russian Federation clearly had the upper hand.
Imo, Putin would be much more amenable to ceasing seizing Ukrainian territory once the Russiah Federation felt that, in conjunction with the right settlement, it had enough of a buffer zone that it couldn't be easily threatened by a later resurgence of Ukrainian or Western belligerence.
Trump's dealings with China could go smoother once Russia had returned to a non-war like state, and was once again more about peaceful trade than it was about military alliances.
And in exchange for "letting China be China", I think Trump could find them willing to sign deals that would assist in keeping the American economy humming. Trump is all about making profit, and I think as long as other nations see themselves as being included in that, mutually beneficial arrangements with them can be much more easily arranged.
The MIC loses relevance when negotiations aren't based on American intimidation, and so they prefer a President like Biden or Harris over a President like Trump. Trump can be a warmonger, and he is an Imperialist, but he's basically a negotiator. Other politicians use negotiations as a fallback or an adjunct to getting what they want by way of military dominance.
If Trump can negotiate peaceful settlements and trade deals, it would be a big blow to the influence of the MIC, and they rather he doesn't get the chance to try.
on October 20, 2024, 1:27 am