V. interesting from Simplicius, making a lot of arguments I've not seen anywhere else. Possibly some fall into the category of 'cope', but plausible on the face of it. The main thrust is that Turkey has its own ambitions in invading Syria, and extending this further eventually into Israel & Palestine to reclaim territories formerly part of the Ottoman empire. So Israel may have defeated one enemy only for it to be replaced by a much more dangerous one. Some footage of 'rebels' shows them saying they intend to occupy Jerusalem next (of course it's cheap for them to believe or want this, you have to look at what's militarily or politically possible). Various sources are quoted about Russia maintaining a presence in the country. One problem with the over all analysis is that it doesn't address US influence over the insurgency or the various ways they will seek to manipulate & steer it behind the scenes.
In any case, the 'wait and see' and cautious optimism approach is probably wiser than despair at this point, as hard as that is to see at the moment...
Thanks. I am astonished that Simplicius has not mentioned that this is essentially the end of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank due to fall of Syria. The irony being that Hamas are cheering HTS on (eyes roll). It's worth listening to Ritter, in his interview with Nima, few threads down. Dark days for Palestinians imo.
Good point, t, just watching the Ritter interview now, he seems pretty shaken by the whole affair. Hopefully the prediction of an end to the possibility of a Palestinian state is premature, just as his assuredness about the defeat of Israel didn't materialise, at least not yet. It all hinges on what happens in Syria, would be my assessment - whether it descends into chaos like Libya (or worse) - or whether some other polity takes control and manages to stabilise things. CIA-backed Islamic fundamentalists aren't going to be the ones to do that... Simplicius seemed to be suggesting that a way out for Palestine would be eventual conquest by Turkey, who would be the ones to defeat Israel on their way to recreate the Ottoman Empire (funny, it seemed more plausible when I read his article than when I'm typing it now!) But that's no solution for Palestinians being starved, killed and ethnically cleansed now. Maybe he didn't go into it because he doesn't like the conclusion - that Palestinians are now completely f*ed, as Ritter seems to be concluding. Hard to say that's wrong at this point, sadly...
Off to finish the rest of the interview now (had to take a break at an hour in)
It's a good piece...though in amongst the fast moving news Simplicius states on Assads future: " ...Perhaps should Syria become federalized or outright balkanized he could return as governor of a rump Latakia:Or then again…maybe not.
The last two words are linked to a claim of the supposed hanging of his cousin Suleiman Hilal al-Assad, apparently executed in the public square of the city of Latakia:
This actual viral video is everywhere with the same claim but other sources point out that the Individual is a different Al-Assad unrelated to Bashar, hanged for murder in the town of Khirbit: "This disturbing video is not about Suleiman Hilal al-Assad. It shows the death sentence carried out against “Ammar Al-Asaad” and “Diana” 2 days ago.
From what I've seen I would though be unsurprised if Bashar hadn't let cousin Suleiman on the plane to avoid a family hit: he seems to have been a bit of a one-man gun-totting drug-dealing steroid-pumped disaster movie.
Well spotted K, thx (nm)
Posted by Ian M on December 10, 2024, 10:48 pm, in reply to "Recte."
on December 10, 2024, 7:13 pm