Glen Diesen - A Major War in the Middle East is Inevitable
Posted by Der on December 15, 2024, 2:38 pm
A Major War in the Middle East is Inevitable
Glenn Diesen Dec 15
The overthrow of Assad in Syria by Western-backed jihadists has set in place developments that will most likely result in a major war in the Middle East. While the media celebrates that “freedom” and “peace” have arrived in Syria, the reality is that the regional balance of power has unravelled. Former allies will eventually turn on each other, new partnerships will be formed, and wars will be fought to restore a new balance of power.
The Palestinian Question
The main source of the conflict is Israel’s rejection of a Palestinian state, and Israel’s subsequent demand to rule over more than 7 million Palestinians. Israel also rejects granting Palestinians equal rights within a Greater Israel as the Palestinians make up about half the population and it would thus undermine the foundation of a Jewish ethno-state. This leaves only two options – apartheid or ethnic cleansing. Israel has pursued a combination of the two as Palestinians must live under a different set of rules in an apartheid system, while incrementally being pushed off their land. After October 7 2023, Israel added genocide to resolve the Palestinian question.
When the Palestinians resist occupation, it is labelled terrorism and thus legitimises apartheid policies and ethnic cleansing. Palestinian terror does occur as evident on 7 October 2023, although all rights for self-defence and resistance have been criminalised. The US ensures military support and political cover for the incremental destruction of Palestine.
Neighbouring countries that support Palestinian resistance are targeted for regime change by Israel and the US under the guise of fighting terror and rogue regimes, removing weapons of mass destruction, or defending human rights and democracy. Each pocket of resistance in the region can be eliminated separately if the main actors remain divided. Netanyahu deliberately allowed the strengthening of Hamas to divide the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, which has prevented the establishment of a common Palestinian state.
The remaining resistance to Israel has consisted of Iran, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Hamas. The US upholds tensions between the Arab states and Iran to ensure that US security dependence and hostility towards Iran are prioritised above solidarity with the Palestinians. The governments in places like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt express sympathy for the Palestinians and use strong language against Israel to placate their enraged public, although deeds will not match their words.
Chaos After the Destruction of Syria
The defeat of Assad removes an important adversary of Israel. Yet, it also undermines the foundation for the solidarity of the anti-Assad alliance as Turkey, jihadists such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Israel and the US will all seek to dominate post-Assad Syria. Israel will seek to seize more territory, constrain HTS, and limit the influence of Turkey. The US will want to maintain their control over Syria’s natural resources as a source of revenue and influence, convince HTS to accommodate the Kurds, and to expel Russia from its military bases in Syria. Turkey will seek to assert greater influence over Syria, push Israel back from Syrian territory, and eliminate any threats from Syrian Kurds. HTS will eliminate minorities and the opposition to consolidate power within Syria, and thereafter they will likely change their approach to external powers.
A new balance of power will likely be shaped through war. The Kurds will seek to maintain some autonomy, although HTS and Turkey will likely counter such ambitions. American and Turkish proxies are already fighting each other, which could spiral out of control. Russia will reduce its presence at its military bases in Syria to reduce risks to its assets, yet will negotiate with the new authorities in Damascus to preserve its military bases. HTS has so far not responded to the attacks by Israel, although the shared hatred of Iran and Hezbollah is unlikely to be enough to maintain the partnership over the long term.
The destruction of an independent Syria also enables Israel and the US to sever Iran’s physical transportation corridor to support Hezbollah and Hamas. Lebanon can now be strangled, and the destruction of Palestine will continue with significantly less resistance. Will the Arab governments in the region still be as obedient to Washington after Iran’s influence has been diminished?
Without reliable support from Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel will also be in a better position to attack Iran. Immediately after the collapse of the collapse of Assad’s government, Israel took advantage by destroying the majority of Syria’s air defence systems and conquering large swaths of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights. Israel is likely already planning an attack on Iran through Syrian territory and there will be great efforts to pull the US into a war against Iran. We can expect more fake and frantic stories in the media about Iranian aggression against the US, and the Israeli lobby will demand that the US participate in a military strike on Iran. With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah as important allies, and faced with an emboldened Israel, Iran may feel compelled to acquire a nuclear deterrent. A wider new Cold War, Iran’s partnership with Russia and China, Israel’s expansionist impulses, rapidly developing technologies, Yemen’s growing assertiveness, Erdogan’s deceitfulness, growing anger about the genocide in Palestine, and other uncertain variables will make it difficult to predict what will happen in the weeks to come. The regional balance of power has been disrupted, and there are few peaceful paths to a new status quo.
The Coming Wars and the Narrative-Driven Media
Western propaganda consistently presents all conflicts in the world as a struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarianism. Simplifying and dumbing down the complexities of world events to a conflict between good and evil is effective in manufacturing consent and purging dissent. However, the media does not explain why the public should celebrate a terrorist group led by a former al-Quaeda leader taking control over Syria. The media also struggles to explain why Israel is responding to the “liberation” of Syria by bombing its military capabilities and seizing its territory. The efforts to whitewash HTS as moderate rebels that embrace diversity will likely be short-lived as minorities will be cleansed and the regional situation will unravel. The silence and support of the genocide in Palestine and the destruction of Lebanon has already discredited the political-media elites. There is hardly anyone outside the media who takes Washington seriously as it proclaims to push for a ceasefire while supplying weapons. When stability across the Middle East collapses, so will the trust in our politicians and media also continue its rapid decline.
Now that Gaza is effectively ethnically-cleansed of Palestinians - and if any survivors of Israel's mass killings try to re-establish themselves I'm sure Israel will do an excellent job in preventing re-building - the thoughts of the Israeli government must turn to how the same end can be achieved in the West Bank. Can some barren, dusty, uninhabitable corner of the State Formerly Known As Syria be pressed into service as a 'safe' enclave for Palestinians?
Re: Could Israel carve out an enclave in Syrian territory & dump the Palestinians there?
As I admitted on these pages a few postings ago, I have been guilty of seriously underestimating the sheer ruthless diabolical cleverness of Israel's masters, their government and the US.
People have been claiming that it's Israel the tail wagging the US dog. I disagree, everything that Isael does is promoted, approved and enabled by the US. They are the masters, every single horrible thing that Israel does is the horrible thing that the US wants them to do. Isreal is the US's 51st State, (The UK is a prospective candidate for the 52nd)
So Isreal and the US have won this particular endeavour, they've had their failings on the way, but their determination to complete their aims has never diminshed. They've managed to wear down Syria to impotence, as they did to Iraq, it's a repeat of a well worn script. Even the "failures" like Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya, are not failures at all, reducing rivals to chaotic, murderous impotence is just as valuable as installing a puppet regime. You just have to deal with the odd outbreak of terrorist activity, which give you the excuse for yet more violence,
Syria will now be subject to an old fashioned dismemberment, partition, perhaps into four - the NW - Turkey, NE Kurd and US. South - Isreal and Damascus and immediate area the jihadists. Indeed, it didn't occur to me, but shoving the Palestinians in to Syria certainly makes a lot of sense. The Palestinians have lost, all my attendance at protests, vigils, wasted really. They will never have a proper home of their own, and the world will forget about them again as more immediate issues come to blight us.
PS I refuse to spell Turkey Türkiye - I don't like using accents, and secondly as long as the Turks call England İngiltere , then what's sauce for the Turkey is sauce for the Goose, and who ever ate a Christmas Türkiye?
This is your best comment for ages. Let us beware of a repetition of the Second Balkan War when it comes to the division of the spoils.The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
on December 15, 2024, 2:38 pm