We’ll see whether Iran has learned to be hyperaggressive - a basic necessity, it seems, in today’s world. If they haven’t learned by now, there may not be another chance.
There are four scenarios: Scenario One America launches a massive attack on Iran across all provinces, targeting the headquarters of all army and paramilitary forces, including highly sensitive targets such as shrines and the leadership, in order to pressure Iran into signing a deal from a position of imposed weakness or a so-called regime-change effort. However, the chances of this scenario are very low and nearly impossible due to various reasons.
Scenario Two America carries out a limited, pre-defined attack and informs Tehran in advance. The strikes are confined to military and paramilitary targets on the outskirts, while regional neighbors, at the request of America, pressure Iran not to respond. The attack is presented as an "achievement" by Trump as same he is doing related to attacking of Nuclaear sites. Iran may choose not to escalate, or may respond by striking US bases that were pre-informed in order to rebalance deterrence. The chances of this scenario are high.
Scenario Three America attacks specific targets, such as nuclear and chemical facilities, which it claims are used for weapons production. Iran retaliates to a similar extent, leading to a limited war that ends within days. However, continued exchanges at the same frequency could lead to a prolonged war, which may cause Iran to suffer losses, but American losses would likely be greater, and the US could even lose some of its footing in the region.
Scenario Four America refrains from direct large-scale military action and instead intensifies hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks, sanctions, intelligence operations, and internal destabilization, while keeping military pressure as a constant threat. Iran responds through regional allies, asymmetric operations, and strategic patience, resulting in a prolonged standoff rather than open war.
From Iran's side Iran may choose a pre-emptive response if Trump's threats escalate further and attacks begin on Iran's border areas.
Iran may also choose to strike bases in Turkey, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and other locations, and target sensitive Israeli assets in response to any assassination attempts. It may also carry out targeted assassinations of top Israeli leaders and American personnel in the region.
Iran may choose a strategy of calibrated deterrence without immediate kinetic escalation. This would include cyber retaliation, electronic warfare, intelligence exposure, and strategic signaling through military exercises and missile tests, aimed at imposing psychological and political costs while avoiding open war.
Iran may pursue an intensive diplomatic and legal counteroffensive alongside strategic restraint. This would involve mobilizing regional partners, engaging global powers, activating international legal mechanisms, and leveraging economic and energy pressure points to isolate the aggressor politically while preserving military options as a last resort.
However, all these scenarios may change, and even other types of attacks and responses may occur. Time will tell.
The intersection of recent intelligence - specifically reports regarding "Al-Udeid Base evacuation" protocols and the setting of a specific deadline (Wednesday evening) - indicates that we have surpassed the phase of saber-rattling and have effectively transitioned into the stage of preparatory operations for battle. When projecting these data points onto the map of NOTAMs and Israeli political movements, a clear picture of an imminent military scenario emerges. The following is an operational analysis of these indicators:
1. The Logistics-Operational Dimension: Al-Udeid Evacuation as a "Red Flag" In US military doctrine, Al-Udeid Air Base is not viewed merely as a logistics hub, but as the central nerve of the Central Command (CENTCOM). The issuance of evacuation orders, coupled with a specific timeframe (Wednesday evening), is a critical indicator that occurs in only two scenarios: either the expectation of a preemptive strike or preparations to launch a massive attack that requires the protection of human and command assets from certain retaliation. This timing effectively sets "Zero Hour," as offensive operations typically commence immediately after friendly forces are secured.
2. "Stand-off Strike" Strategy: The Guam Pivot The repositioning of aerial refueling tankers toward Guam in the Pacific confirms the US reliance on a doctrine of "engagement from outside the range." * Strategic Importance: Guam serves as the launchpad for strategic bombers (B-52 and B-2). * Expected Tactic: The strategy avoids deploying high-value assets in Gulf bases located within the "arc of fire" of Iranian tactical missiles. Instead, the plan relies on launching bombers from strategic depth, refueling mid-air, executing surgical strikes using bunker busters (MOP), and returning to safe bases beyond the range of Iranian defenses.
3. The Israeli Domestic Front: Dimona on High Alert A significant new development is the announcement by the Municipality of Dimona regarding the opening of public shelters. This is a grave indicator; given the area's proximity to sensitive nuclear facilities, this measure transcends standard precaution. It signals that the Israeli home front command assessments anticipate an imminent exchange of fire that could target the state's strategic depth, necessitating immediate civil defense readiness.
4. A Reverse Reading of Iranian "Airspace Calm" Iran's cancellation of air restrictions (NOTAMs) and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz should be interpreted not as a de-escalation gesture, but as a measure to "clear the theater of operations." Estimates suggest that Tehran, based on its monitoring of US movements (Guam and Al-Udeid), realizes that a strike is inevitable. Consequently, opening the airspace is intended to withdraw exposed military targets and clear the skies of complex civilian traffic. This ensures freedom of maneuver for air defense systems and ballistic missile forces to retaliate immediately, without the risk of engaging civilian or friendly targets (Blue-on-White incidents).
Conclusion: The War Matrix is Complete All the necessary elements for military action have converged: * Militarily: Force protection (Al-Udeid evacuation), preparation of the "Long Arm" (Guam), and hardening the domestic front (Dimona shelters). * Diplomatically: Exhaustion of political channels and evacuation of nationals (time expired). * Temporally: The operational window opens upon the expiration of the evacuation deadline (after Wednesday evening). We are now facing a reality on the ground confirming that the decision has been taken, and execution is merely a matter of hours.
nmThe last working-class hero in England. Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ??? - 4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ???-4 December 2025
nmThe last working-class hero in England. Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ??? - 4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ???-4 December 2025
In the context of the anticipated "Zero Hour" (based on partial evacuations at Al-Udeid Air Base), this file presents conclusive field evidence that Iran is completely "clearing the field." The Result: Continued "cleanup" operations with no new closures. Three additional NOTAMs covering highly sensitive areas have been cancelled. Here are the implications of current events (shortly before sunset GMT, evening in Tehran):
1. Opening the "Gulf of Oman Gate": Jask (A0101/26 & A0103/26) The NOTAM regarding the Jask area has been cancelled. * Location: Jask Naval Base overlooking the Gulf of Oman (outside the Strait). * Significance: This was an active high-altitude firing zone (25,000 ft). * Analysis: Cancelling the firing zone over Iran's most critical naval base in the Indian Ocean signifies a halt to defensive drills. Warships and submarines stationed there have transitioned from "training" mode to "real operations" mode (silent deployment at sea), or the area has been opened to facilitate the rapid transit of assets.
2. Opening the "Kashan Gate": Near Natanz (B0007/26) A small but significant NOTAM near Kashan (north of Natanz) has been cancelled. * Analysis: Lifting restrictions around nuclear sites reinforces the theory that air defenses are no longer conducting "tests." The systems (S-300 / Bavar-373) are now in "Silent Watch" mode to avoid revealing their frequencies to American aircraft currently scanning the region.
Field Summary - Evening File (18:46): The current landscape in Tehran and the Gulf: * Sky: Completely clear of any declared "training" or "firing" zones. * Ground: Defenses are silent and camouflaged. * Sea: The Strait and the Gulf of Oman are navigationally open (ostensibly). This is the "calm before the storm" that precedes the explosion. In military science, when all warning zones suddenly vanish prior to an expected attack, it indicates that the defending party (Iran) intends to: * Deny the enemy the pretext of "avoiding training zones," thereby funneling them into specific flight paths. * Conceal the locations of actual batteries by cancelling old decoy zones. The coming hours are decisive. If any new NOTAM is issued tonight, it will not be for "training"; it will be a declaration of a "War Zone."
In the calculus of modern warfare, 'Zero Hour' is no longer a purely military decision; it has become hostage to 'Wall Street' indicators. When the economy is the potential first victim, the timing of a strike becomes part of a financial containment strategy, not just a military one. Here, Friday emerges as the watershed line between diplomacy and fire.
1. The Engineering of Economic Timing Washington fears a collapse of global markets; therefore, launching a military attack on a Saturday grants the markets a 48-hour "breathing space" (the weekend). This timing allows the world to absorb the shock, assess the damage, and await reassuring political statements before the stock market bells ring again on Monday morning. Recent history supports this; the previous Iranian strike (in April) selected the Saturday/Sunday night window as a benchmark for economic restraint.
2. Turkish Mediation: A Lifeline or a Final Warning? Ankara's entry into the crisis line indicates that we have reached the stage of "diplomatic bone-breaking." * Militarily: Mediation usually implies a "freezing" of operations for 24-48 hours, which explains the current cautious calm regarding Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs); everyone is awaiting the results of the initial contact. * Politically: The threat of "regime change" has shifted negotiations from the category of the "Nuclear Deal" to the category of "Existence." Iran will not negotiate under the sword of this threat unless compelled, or it may exploit this time to restock its missiles.
3. What Does the Language of "NOTAMs" Tell Us? If Saturday dawn is the anticipated time, the map of air mission notifications will chart the following path: * The Calm Before the Storm (Wednesday and Thursday): Continued partially open skies to demonstrate good faith and facilitate the evacuation of nationals. * The Turning Point (Friday Evening): We will witness a radical shift manifested by a total Flight Information Region (FIR) closure, the sudden disappearance of civil aviation, and the cancellation of routine drills to redirect all radars toward threat sources in the West.
The coming hours, up until the closing of the stock exchange on Friday, constitute the "final diplomatic window." Should Turkish mediation fail, Saturday dawn will be the ideal timing to commence operations with minimal economic damage. Watch the developments on Friday... they are the compass.
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A caveat
Last time, the US-Israeli operation against Iran was launched on Thursday night, with complete disregard for the consequences on the markets. The surprise effect could be more significant for them than the financial impact. -- https://nitter.net/AbatNom/status/2011137285333664119 13 Jan 2026 · 6:04 PM UTC
Yes, what we have been anticipating and warning about over the past few hours has finally occurred. The "Red Button" has been pressed. The new update (at 22:16 GMT - 01:46 AM Tehran time) carries the most critical NOTAM to date - one that ends the state of "ambiguity" and effectively declares a state of "war."
1. The New NOTAM: The Lockdown NOTAM number (A0225/26) has been issued. * Explicit Text: "TEHRAN FIR CLSD TO ALL FLIGHTS" (Tehran Flight Information Region closed to all flights). * Timing: Implementation began at 22:15 UTC (just one minute before the file was released). * The Exception: Permission is granted only for international civil flights (arrivals/departures) that possess "special prior permission" from the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority.
2. Urgent Military Analysis This constitutes a "War Zone Declaration." * End of the Prelude: All previous analysis regarding "clearing the airspace" and the cancellation of firing zones was merely preparation for this moment. Iran has cleared the skies of general air traffic to provide full operational freedom for air defenses and missiles. * Interpreting the Exception: The "Prior Permission" condition practically means the airspace is closed. This stipulation is standard procedure to allow highly specific aircraft (such as last-minute negotiation flights, allied aircraft, or state transport) to traverse very narrow "safe corridors." Any other target will be treated as a "hostile target."
3. Conclusion: Zero Hour is Now There is no longer any room for speculation. * Iran has officially closed its airspace. * Lufthansa was correct. * The evacuation of Al Udeid Air Base was the true indicator. We are now in the opening minutes of an open confrontation. The Iranian sky has become a No-Fly Zone by operational order.
The US has learned to use deception to the max. If Iran activated any radars during the NOTAM, it could have been a strategic blunder from the point of view of external monitoring?
on January 14, 2026, 6:50 pm