Rumors swirl around US President Donald Trump's abrupt cancellation of new air strikes on Iran. What is undeniable is that the US military has few assets in the Persian Gulf. Trump has since ordered reinforcements.
Israel's attempt to destabilize Iran from within has failed, but new pretexts for war are emerging. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff recently communicated with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during which he is said to have issued outrageous demands - terminate enrichment, handover enriched uranium, and reduce missile ranges and stockpiles - effectively, a demand for capitulation, which Washington knows Tehran will reject. The US will claim "Iran refuses to negotiate in good faith" as casus belli.
Pre-empt, or be punished Iran's military doctrine is fundamentally defensive; Israel's is not. But that posture may be changing. In August 2025, retired Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Yahya Safavi, senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, declared: "We must adopt an offensive strategy." In a January statement, Iran's Defense Council said, "within the framework of legitimate defense, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not limit itself to reacting after action and considers objective signs of threat as part of the security equation."
"Pre-emptive War" is to strike first to seize the initiative when confronting an imminent threat. The textbook study is Israel's Six-Day War (1967), following the blockade of the Tiran Straits, the mobilization of Arab armies, and the hostile rhetoric.
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Dr. Mohammad Marandi: US war on Iran will COLLAPSE Persian Gulf allies and Israel (The Cradle)
And now today, the US is confronting Iran b/c of Israel. There's no other reason for it.
So, if we were to look at this from a rational perspective, the US would not go to war w/ Iran b/c there's a sort of MAD here.
The global economy, if it goes downhill, the US cannot sustain a war w/ Iran. It would be over very swiftly b/c the US economy would collapse and so would those across the world, and you'd have millions of people on the move, from Latin America, Africa - it would be devastating.
But b/c of Israel, b/c of the Israeli regime, Washington would quite possibly sacrifice the US economy to do what the Zionists want them to do.
Right now behind the scenes nothing is happening. There are no negotiations between Iran and the US, the reason being that the US has put preconditions on negotiations that Iran says are simply unacceptable. Messages do go back and forth and Iran has said in those messages that you should expect all out war. Why? B/c an attack on Iran would be an existential threat, and there is no room for Iran to do anything but carry out an all out assault.
And the countries in the region, none of them are going to stand w/ Iran just as they never stood with the Palestinian people except for the Axis of Resistance. And that I think is important, very important b/c first of all Yemen today is much stronger than it was a few months ago. It has also been preparing itself for the next phase of war. Then there's Iraq. After the elections, we saw that allies of the resistance, they won the elections. They've done far better in the recent parliamentary elections than they did in the past. And the Iraqis are not going to sit back and allow the US to carry out an assault on Iran b/c ultimately they know that next on the list would be Iraq and regime change in Iraq. So the US is vulnerable across the board.
Iran and its allies are preparing themselves for a worst case scenario. But I think that if there is war, the US will will be defeated. I believe that it will be devastating for everyone. But I believe that countries like the Emirates and Qatar and these Arab dictatorships, they'll all fall and they'll collapse. And I think that in Iraq probably all Westerners should leave now. And in the Persian Gulf region, I think that everyone should leave. Anyone who can leave should leave b/c if there is war, these places will have no future. So hopefully we won't go there. But as I said, the US is not a rational actor. Trump is not a rational actor. And so everything is possible.
on January 24, 2026, 8:05 pm