John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad 5h This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why…
Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance.
Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.
This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.
Control insurance, control trade. And London doesn’t just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd’s and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.
You can’t participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.
Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.
Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can’t even price it.
The question everyone should be asking: why?
Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?
To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.
The answer: better intelligence.
It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world’s maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd’s itself.
I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd’s.
Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.
Here’s the problem: the majority of MI6’s intel doesn’t come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion’s share of intel.
So if Lloyd’s pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6’s best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?
All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.
And we know there has been serious anger in Washington over the UK’s decision to sell Diego Garcia, home to America’s most strategically important base in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius.
It is not a huge leap to conclude that the submarine cables linking Langley to London have gone dark, or at minimum have been significantly throttled.
What this means for UK national security is a question for the Brits. But what it means for EVERY company globally that’s insured through the London market has massive implications for the entire financial system.
Because most large insurers worldwide don’t do independent intelligence work. They index off Lloyd’s rates.
If you’re insuring a skyscraper in Tokyo, a semiconductor fab in Taiwan, or a port in Argentina you get a Lloyd’s quote, then shop that price around.
Other insurers see Lloyd’s number and assume the diligence was done. They price accordingly.
This means if London is suddenly flying blind it’s not just Lloyd’s policyholders at risk. It’s the entire global reinsurance chain.
The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn’t the crisis. It’s the canary.
If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.
Watch Lloyd’s. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That’s where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.
CC @BillAckman gCaptain @gCaptain 9h Major marine insurers just cancelled war risk coverage for the Strait of Hormuz. 150+ ships stranded. Rates tripled. One seafarer dead. And this is only day 3 of the Iran conflict.
Ship War Risk Insurance Canceled After Iran Strikes Reuters March 2, 2026
Reuters By Emily Chow and Jeslyn Lerh
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Marine insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels and oil shipping rates are set to surge further after the widening Iran conflict left at least three tankers damaged, a seafarer killed and 150 ships stranded around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has responded to U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on Saturday with retaliatory attacks that have sharply increased risks to commercial shipping in the past 24 hours.
In the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, at least 150 vessels including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers had dropped anchor, shipping data showed on Sunday.
Typically, ships carrying oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait sail through the Strait along with tankers hauling diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and other products.
The disruption sparked a 9% jump in global oil prices on Monday. Insurers Cancel War Risk Cover
Companies including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club and the American Club said their cancellations would take effect from March 5, according to notices dated March 1 on their websites.
War risk cover will be excluded in Iranian waters, as well as the Gulf and adjacent waters, according to the notices.
Skuld added in its notice that it was working on a buy-back option to reinstate cover.
Japan’s MS&AD Insurance Group told Reuters it had suspended underwriting of a range of insurance policies covering war risks in the waters around Iran, Israel and neighbouring countries. Oil Shipping Costs to Rise Further
Meanwhile, costs of shipping oil from the Middle East to Asia – already at six-year highs – are set to rise further as the widening Iran conflict is deterring shipowners from sending vessels to the region, market sources and analysts said on Monday.
Spot shipping rates from the Middle East to Asia, more commonly known as TD3C, are expected to extend gains, shipbrokers said. The benchmark has nearly tripled since the start of 2026.
Brokers pegged the spot rate for hiring a very large crude carrier on the key Middle East to China route early in Asia on Monday about 4% higher than on Friday, near W225 on the Worldscale industry measure or equivalent to at least $12 million. Exponential Rise
“TD3C rates were rising exponentially before the attacks and will continue to remain elevated as countries scramble to meet their energy needs,” said Emril Jamil, a senior LSEG analyst.
There is still a lot of uncertainty on where the final rate would be on Monday but all Middle East loading routes are expected to hold firm, a shipbroker said. They declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.
Meanwhile, the market will need more ships to load crude from the U.S. and West Africa on longer voyages which could support freight on those routes, a source from a shipping company said.
Reporting by Emily Chow and Jeslyn Lerh; Additional reporting by Trixie Yap and Ruth Chai in Singapore, Nidhi Verma in New Delhi; Editing by Florence Tan, Sonali Paul and Jamie Freed
I remember in the early 90s Lloyd's names had to pay out for once. I could hear the squeals up here. ;O)Clio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ??2010-3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ???-4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ?2006-4 December 2025 Toni the cat ?2005-25 March 2026
Not any more.
Posted by Ken Waldron on March 3, 2026, 12:55 am, in reply to "Unlimited liability"
In 1993 they opened the market to Corporates and Limited liability.
Re: Not any more.
Posted by Keith-264 on March 3, 2026, 1:31 am, in reply to "Not any more. "
Cop outs.Clio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ??2010-3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ???-4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ?2006-4 December 2025 Toni the cat ?2005-25 March 2026
I remember some story from decades ago that "Splash It All Over" 'Enry Cooper...
Posted by Ed on March 3, 2026, 2:51 am, in reply to "Re: Not any more. "
..had been a Lloyd's Name and lost a lot when they had to do some big compensation payouts. My heart bled."I won't dignify the attacker's words by repeating them, they are horrific and vile."
on March 3, 2026, 12:11 am