The provisional surrender document signed by Donald Trump appeared to represent a triumph for Iran and indeed for the world; but neither the USA nor Israel has the slightest sense of honour and they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
Iran knows this - after all, the USA twice attacked Iran actually during peace negotiations, on each occasion killing key Iranian negotiators.
To understand the American position, it is important to realise two key points: * Greater Israel is an absolute priority * Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a US priority
While the US/Israeli alliance were defeated in their attempt to impose regime change on Iran, and indeed have consolidated the popular support of the Iranian government, they have succeeded in expanding Greater Israel. Israel has ethnically cleared and devastated a vast swathe of Southern Lebanon, expanding its military footprint, and notably attempting to repeat its ploy from November 2024 of pushing forward its armour under cover of ceasefire.
Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon has been a major negotiating point for the Iranian government and is a key - indeed the very first - point of the Iran/USA MOU. But in an extraordinary coup aimed at negating that deal, the USA has signed a deal with Israel and its puppet Aoun regime in Lebanon which seeks to legitimise Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon through the agreement of the "Lebanese government".
This is an astonishing development. I did not think I could have a lower opinion of the appalling bloated traitor "General" "President" Aoun but not even I - nor I think any commentator - believed he would make such a deal with Israel. The plan is that the Americans, Israelis and Lebanese Army will act together to forcibly eliminate Hezbollah, and only after that is certified - by the Israelis - will the Israelis withdraw from Southern Lebanon.
'Trump rejects this and returns to the philosophy that other nations are all competitors, not potential partners, and that success lies not only in increasing your own production, but in damaging your rivals’ production – which ultimately will increase domestic production further.'
So Craig is on board with the Medhurst theory that Trump is deliberately sabotaging rivals. Confirmed in the comments:
craig Post author June 29, 2026 at 12:41 Richard is very bright
*****
He also writes:
'The USA does not import hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz. That fact is key to Trump’s thinking.'
Not sure if this is true, but I did a bit of research on the Qatari oil & gas industries and, while the govt progressively nationalised much of the production through QatarEnergy and others, there remain significant investments by western oil companies like Total, Conoco Phillips, Shell and Exxon Mobil. The latter are deeply involved in the LNG production efforts that Medhurst argues Trump has no problem writing off. One wonders what they would make of that, and why we haven't heard strong protests from that highly influential corporation.
ExxonMobil has been a strategic energy partner to the State of Qatar for over 50 years, with a presence that spans the LNG value chain and domestic gas supply. The company is the largest international partner in Qatar’s LNG sector, with stakes in nine LNG trains and 27 of the world’s largest LNG carriers.
The company is also the only foreign participant in Qatar’s domestic gas projects, and a key contributor to research, development, and community outreach aligned with Qatar National Vision 2030. Link Copied! 1.9.1. LNG Ventures
ExxonMobil plays a critical role in Qatar’s global LNG leadership. In partnership with QatarEnergy, the company has developed and operated some of the largest LNG projects globally:
Interest in 9 of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains
Partner in QatarEnergy LNG N(1) (formerly Qatargas 1) until 2021
Partner in LNG ventures globally, including the South Hook LNG terminal in the UK and Golden Pass LNG in the U.S.
Co-developed Qatar’s largest condensate refinery
Link Copied! 1.9.2. Domestic Gas Projects
ExxonMobil is the sole international company involved in Qatar’s domestic gas supply.
Al-Khaleej Gas (AKG)
Launched in 2000, AKG was designed to utilize North Field reserves for domestic gas supply, supporting industrial development and national growth.
Barzan Gas
The Barzan Gas Project further extends ExxonMobil’s domestic impact. Operated by QatarEnergy LNG, this venture supplies gas to the local market and produces essential byproducts. ExxonMobil holds a 7% share, with QatarEnergy owning 93%.
International Projects
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy collaborate on global LNG infrastructure, including:
South Hook LNG Terminal, Wales (LNG receiving)
Golden Pass LNG Export Facility, Texas, USA
Additional partnerships in Brazil, Cyprus, Argentina, Egypt, and Canada
Medhurst noted the interests and ambitions of Chevron, but don't remember him discussing the other oil & gas corps who might be a tad upset, you would think, at having their multi-decade investments get blocked or even go up in smoke because of some madcap scheme*. Also I still struggle to believe the US establishment is willing to tolerate the upending of diplomatic ties, security guarantees, military cooperation etc with the Arab states, again cultivated over the course of nearly a century, just because the fracking bubble gave the impression they were an oil giant themselves and could do without other global suppliers.
Murray & Medhurst's description of the Trump regime engaging in piracy and upending maritime security seems to fit what has been happening, and the historical precedent of mercantilism might be what we're headed back into, but it seems like such a huge change that there would be pushback from a lot of powerful interests.
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* - looking at his article, I see Medhurst thinks QatarEnergy & Exxon have pivoted to the US and withdrawn from Qatar, which seems v far-fetched: 'A case in point is the curious fate of Qatar. ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy — who are partners in the Ras Laffan refinery that was crippled in March — clearly knew when to pull their chips from the Middle East and move them to the US. On April 22, they celebrated their first LNG shipment from Golden Pass, Texas, where Qatar hold a majority 70% stake. Safe to say, at these wartime prices they’ll be making back everything they lost in the Gulf several times over, and all while operating safely inside the US economic circuit.' - https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery
Are they really going to be willing to turn their backs on all of this?
'One of Qatar Energy’s most valuable assets is the North Gas Field, the largest non-associated gas field in the world, with over 900 trillion standard cubic feet of recoverable gas. Offshore oil production is also significant, with key fields like Idd El-Sharqi, Maydan Mahzam, and Bul Hanine producing high-quality crude oil and associated gas. Onshore, the historic Dukhan Field has been a vital production site since the first oil shipment in 1949.
Key Operations and Projects
Gas-to-Liquids (GTL):
Pearl GTL (with Shell): Largest GTL plant globally, converting 1.6 billion cfpd of gas.
Oryx GTL: Produces 34,000 barrels/day, with plans to expand to 100,000 b/d.
Refining & Petrochemicals:
QatarEnergy’s refinery in Mesaieed processes over 100,000 barrels/day.
A new petrochemical complex is being developed in Ras Laffan with Chevron Phillips, featuring the Middle East’s largest ethane cracker (1.9 million tons/year).
Exploration Partnerships:
EPSA and DPSA agreements have been signed with global companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, CNOOC, Maersk, and Anadarko.
These partnerships have led to major developments in fields like Al Shaheen, Al Khaleej, and Al Karara.
Qatar Energy to Build 18 LNG Vessels in China's CSSC at the Cost of $6 Billion
Infrastructure & Storage:
Halul Island: A key crude oil export hub with over 4 million barrels of storage capacity.
Equipped with a heliport, desalination plants, a harbor, and residential facilities for staff.
Pipeline & Domestic Gas Projects:
Dolphin Energy: Supplies natural gas via pipeline from Qatar’s North Field to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman.
Al-Khaleej Gas Project (AKG): Supplies 2 bcf/day to local industries.
Barzan Gas Project: Produces 1.4 bcf/day of sales gas for power generation.
Future Developments:
North Field Expansion: Set to raise LNG capacity from 77 to 110 MTPA.
Bul Hanine Redevelopment: Aims to double the current offshore oil output and extend the field’s life.
Some of the largest subsidiaries of QatarEnergy:
1.1.1. QatarEnergy LNG
QatarEnergy LNG is the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with an annual production capacity of 77 million metric tonnes. Established in 1984 and rebranded from Qatargas in 2023, the company plays a pivotal role in Qatar’s dominance in the global LNG market. QatarEnergy LNG operates 14 LNG trains, including six mega trains with a capacity of 7.8 MTPA each, and manages key upstream operations in Ras Laffan.Tell your story; Ask a question; Interpret generously http://storybythethroat.wordpress.com/tell-ask-listen/
on June 29, 2026, 10:44 am