Egypt is more under the domination of Saudi Arabia and the UAE than it is the US anymore, and it is not likely that Saudi Arabia would back any ethnic cleansing of Gaza, as the internal price would be too high to pay. In any case, despite Saudi and Emirati financial pressure on it, Egypt does not always dance to their tune of its creditors either, and Egyptian public opinion, when aroused, counts for something too, despite the failure of the revolution of 2011-2013.
Egypt will not welcome the Gazans as refugees in Egypt; it didn't before, when it ruled Gaza 1948-1956 and 1957-1967, and it won't now especially. Egypt has just faced a furious guerilla war waged by a very small population of a couple of hundred thousand Sinai natives in the very area near the Gaza Strip, and that war was definitely connected with the hostility of those Sinai natives to Israel, as some of their ancestors were originally from the so-called "Bedouins" driven out by the Israelis in 1949-1955 into Egypt and Jordan. Egypt would fear that the Gazans would increase the existing problem tenfold.
Indeed, Egypt would regard the Gazans moving to Sinai as a national catastrophe, not just for the Gazans but for Egypt as well, so this is not something they will give in on easily. Even if President al-Sisi were amenable to being bribed, which I think is out of the question, he has to follow the will of the Egyptian military, the establishment, and the people at large on this, so I am certain Egypt will resist. The arrival of the Gazans would mean the loss of Northeast Sinai, and it might destabilize the Egyptian regime as well, which is not very popular to begin with.
Furthermore, Israel forcing the Gazans into Egypt would constitute an abrogation of the peace treaty with Egypt and an act of war by Israel against Egypt.
As for the possibility that 2.3 million people might be displaced to Europe or scattered in the western countries, it is good if those countries fear that, because that might make them pressure Israel to stop. But all such countries would not welcome the Gazans in any case and would do all that is in their power to prevent them from entering. However, if they were dumped in Sinai by force, it would then be in the interest of Egypt to help facilitate their moving elsewhere, so, yes, some might wind up in Europe, joining the continuous waves of boat people coming from Libya and even sometimes from Egypt. Being highly politicized, the Gazans would probably have a effect one way or another, especially to the detriment of Israel wherever they went. So it should not necessarily be assumed that forward-thinking Israelis would welcome the escape of the Gazans from Israeli confinement, because, then what?
Whether Egypt could stop the Israelis from forcing the Gazans into Egypt is another question. Egypt's military forces in Sinai are weak, though they have been increased with Israeli approval in order to control the guerilla war of the Sinai natives (Sinaians? new word). Maybe Israel thinks that the Egyptians won't be able to block the Gazans from crossing the heavily-fortified Sinai fence. But the Gazans probably won't be inclined easily to leave the Gaza Strip, no matter what, so it will be the Israelis doing the push in that case.
As pointed out by the piece posted @ Down South | Oct 14 2023 14:44 utc | 19 and Down South | Oct 14 2023 14:45 utc | 20 (Thanks, Down South), conquering Gaza will be no picnic for the Israelis either. The longer the campaign goes on, the less support Israel will have and the more it will be pressured to stop and even outright condemned.
Another factor is that the expulsion of the Gazans would be seen as a precedent for other new expulsions by Israel and would thus be opposed all the more fiercely by the Arab states and especially by their peoples.
Israel really has no good choices here: All of the outcomes will be costly, damaging, and malign for it. It is true that the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip, if it could even really happen, would be an outrage, but the actual territory is tiny and not by itself "worth it" for Israel. Rather, it is the pushing back of the Palestinians farther away from the Israeli heartland that constitutes all that Israel would be looking for as a gain. But in the age of missiles, that would be a very small gain bought at a humongous price. Just as Hizbullah's arsenal grows stronger day by day simply because of technology, what with drones and missiles, etc., all of little Israel including Tel Aviv remains under threat, and would still remain under threat, so no wonder they are freaking out.
Posted by: Cabe | Oct 14 2023 17:19 utc | 109
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