Israel Commits to Full-Scale War in Lebanon

18 September 2024 by Larry C. Johnson 140 Comments



Israeli forces mass on Lebanese border

Israel has been warned and its leaders apparently have decided to ignore those warnings. Madness! I have trained and worked with Israelis — not a lot — and learned that many of their military and intelligence leadership excel in arrogance and hubris. When I conduct firearms training courses for US citizens, the single most important characteristic is attitude. I can teach knowledge and skills, but if the student has a know-it-all attitude, the instruction is a waste of time. That is Israel — bad attitude. And the poor attitude translates into lack of knowledge and limited skills and reckless risk taking.

A group of Washington Post reporters provided the latest update about Israeli intentions:

Top Israeli officials who met with a senior White House adviser warned that military action will be needed to allow thousands of residents to go back to their homes along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Amos Hochstein, who was in Israel on Monday to try to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, that Israel appreciated U.S. support but would ultimately “do what is necessary to safeguard its security and return the residents of the north securely to their homes,” according to a statement from Netanyahu’s office.

In an early Tuesday announcement, Israel’s security cabinet also said it updated its war objectives to include “returning the residents of the north securely to their homes,” signaling an expansion of official aims that originally focused on eliminating Hamas and returning the hostages taken on Oct. 7.

It’s important to understand what this means. In order to secure northern Israel, the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) will have to invade southern Lebanon and expel Hezbollah. Let that sink in. The very same Israeli force that has failed to quell the uprising in Gaza after 11 months of slaughtering civilians on an unprecedented scale in the history of Israel, now is going to venture into southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has erected enormous, inter connected lines of defense.

Israel tried and failed to accomplish a similar mission against Hezbollah in 2006. Only then, Hezbollah was less prepared, had fewer combat-trained soldiers and had a meager supply of rockets, mortars and missiles compared to now. And Hezbollah has something it did not have in 2006 — drones. Oh. Almost forgot. Hezbollah reportedly has air defense systems as well, which are capable of downing IOF combat aircraft. In short, Netanyahu has decided to whack the hornets’ nest. I fear this is about to get very bad.

As I wrote yesterday — and some of you disagreed — Israel’s terrorist attack in Lebanon, yesterday and today, using exploding pagers, is a clear sign of desperation. Israeli officials told western reporters that they had intended to use this tactic at the start of their invasion into Lebanon, but fear that the operation had been compromised led them to launch early. That is what I mean by desperation. Instead of pulling off an electronic version of Pearl Harbor, Israel had the equivalent of a premature ejaculation. Instead of catching Hezbollah completely off guard, Israel decisively tipped its hand and ensured that Hezbollah commanders are prepared in advance to fight them. Just one more example of the arrogance and hubris that infects Israeli leadership.

I posted a live stream earlier today commenting on the implications of the pager sabotage/ambush. While it is an incredibly clever, sophisticated attack, it is at most a Pyrrhic victory, sort of. Although Israel did not suffer any casualties itself, in carrying out this attack, it has ensured that Hezbollah will be ready and waiting for them on the battlefield, where devastating losses will likely be inflicted on Israel. And let us not forget that Hezbollah will not be fighting alone. The Houthis and Iran may also have a say in the matter and Israel could find itself fighting Hezbollah, Yemen and Iran, along with stepped-up attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza and the West Bank. This could turn rapidly into a five-front war. I have grave doubts that Israel can prevail in such a conflict. We’ll see.

https://sonar21.com/israel-commits-to-full-scale-war-in-lebanon/