Interesting comment from Larry Johnson on the premature pager terrorism.
Posted by Ken Waldron on September 20, 2024, 9:24 am
Israel Commits to Full-Scale War in Lebanon
18 September 2024 by Larry C. Johnson 140 Comments
Israeli forces mass on Lebanese border
Israel has been warned and its leaders apparently have decided to ignore those warnings. Madness! I have trained and worked with Israelis — not a lot — and learned that many of their military and intelligence leadership excel in arrogance and hubris. When I conduct firearms training courses for US citizens, the single most important characteristic is attitude. I can teach knowledge and skills, but if the student has a know-it-all attitude, the instruction is a waste of time. That is Israel — bad attitude. And the poor attitude translates into lack of knowledge and limited skills and reckless risk taking.
A group of Washington Post reporters provided the latest update about Israeli intentions:
Top Israeli officials who met with a senior White House adviser warned that military action will be needed to allow thousands of residents to go back to their homes along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Amos Hochstein, who was in Israel on Monday to try to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, that Israel appreciated U.S. support but would ultimately “do what is necessary to safeguard its security and return the residents of the north securely to their homes,” according to a statement from Netanyahu’s office.
In an early Tuesday announcement, Israel’s security cabinet also said it updated its war objectives to include “returning the residents of the north securely to their homes,” signaling an expansion of official aims that originally focused on eliminating Hamas and returning the hostages taken on Oct. 7.
It’s important to understand what this means. In order to secure northern Israel, the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) will have to invade southern Lebanon and expel Hezbollah. Let that sink in. The very same Israeli force that has failed to quell the uprising in Gaza after 11 months of slaughtering civilians on an unprecedented scale in the history of Israel, now is going to venture into southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has erected enormous, inter connected lines of defense.
Israel tried and failed to accomplish a similar mission against Hezbollah in 2006. Only then, Hezbollah was less prepared, had fewer combat-trained soldiers and had a meager supply of rockets, mortars and missiles compared to now. And Hezbollah has something it did not have in 2006 — drones. Oh. Almost forgot. Hezbollah reportedly has air defense systems as well, which are capable of downing IOF combat aircraft. In short, Netanyahu has decided to whack the hornets’ nest. I fear this is about to get very bad.
As I wrote yesterday — and some of you disagreed — Israel’s terrorist attack in Lebanon, yesterday and today, using exploding pagers, is a clear sign of desperation. Israeli officials told western reporters that they had intended to use this tactic at the start of their invasion into Lebanon, but fear that the operation had been compromised led them to launch early. That is what I mean by desperation. Instead of pulling off an electronic version of Pearl Harbor, Israel had the equivalent of a premature ejaculation. Instead of catching Hezbollah completely off guard, Israel decisively tipped its hand and ensured that Hezbollah commanders are prepared in advance to fight them. Just one more example of the arrogance and hubris that infects Israeli leadership.
I posted a live stream earlier today commenting on the implications of the pager sabotage/ambush. While it is an incredibly clever, sophisticated attack, it is at most a Pyrrhic victory, sort of. Although Israel did not suffer any casualties itself, in carrying out this attack, it has ensured that Hezbollah will be ready and waiting for them on the battlefield, where devastating losses will likely be inflicted on Israel. And let us not forget that Hezbollah will not be fighting alone. The Houthis and Iran may also have a say in the matter and Israel could find itself fighting Hezbollah, Yemen and Iran, along with stepped-up attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza and the West Bank. This could turn rapidly into a five-front war. I have grave doubts that Israel can prevail in such a conflict. We’ll see.
I have read comments like this countless times in the past decade:
“ Israel tried and failed to accomplish a similar mission against Hezbollah in 2006. Only then, Hezbollah was less prepared, had fewer combat-trained soldiers and had a meager supply of rockets, mortars and missiles compared to now”
Isn’t it a bit hubristic to not consider that Israel has also had 18 years to re-think how it would conduct a future Lebanon war? Including the possibility of a drawn out (over years, perhaps) attritional strategy that everyone and their mothers has now learned from Russia? I am not saying Israel will necessarily win this, but its clearly not blitzkrieg like last time.
- Shyaku
Re: Speaking of hubris ..
Posted by Shyaku on September 20, 2024, 7:26 pm, in reply to "Speaking of hubris .."
Somewhat remarkably, its been 18 years and Hzbollah yet shows no signs of having air defenses that can have even come close to shooting down an Israeli jet.
Yet again we see shouting and screaming in the streets (of Beirut) among the dust, people being pulled from the rubble, anger and fury, and not even one air defense rocket launch against Israeli jets. Maybe there is a good (or cunning) reason for this that I am missing, but it has certainly eluded me, given that they have “had 18 years to prepare for this”.
Israel's most recent two years of war games against the Axis of Resistance led to Isr's defeat, and
Posted by sashimi on September 20, 2024, 7:31 pm, in reply to "Speaking of hubris .."
- didn't factor in Hamas tying up 70% of the IOF - Scott Ritter. Lebanese civilians would be targeted by the settler colonial terrorist entity.
Israel needs US direct involvement, but the US would sustain large casualties, courtesy of Iran and the Axis.
All good points. Would be excellent to see some Russian S400's there.
Posted by Ken Waldron on September 20, 2024, 11:33 pm, in reply to "Speaking of hubris .."
...Would stop the use of Lebanese airspace as a launch pad for Israeli hits on Syria too.
What a good idea.The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
Re: Russian S400s
Posted by t on September 22, 2024, 12:12 am, in reply to "Russian S400s"
What a good idea.
For some stupid reason you thought that either Russkies haven't thought of it, or that somehow you have to come to a solution not many ppl have grokked (eyes roll). Whatever.
The serous part of the response should be based on the facts. There is a reason why RF has not provided S 400 free for all. Please do figure it out .. sigh.
Re: Russian S400s
Posted by Keith-264 on September 23, 2024, 8:25 am, in reply to "Re: Russian S400s"
Yap, yap, yap.The last working-class hero in England.
Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ? ? ? - 4 November 2021
on September 20, 2024, 9:24 am