What you say is objective and rational and a nice analysis to boot. If I can put in my ha'penny's worth, and going along with your money angle, one needs to keep an eye on BRICS. Bear with me.

The next step on that escalation ladder for Israel is a range of possibilities which includes sending their missiles to Iran's refineries etc or/and nuclear facilities. If Israel goes for the former (say), Iran just may be restrained by Russia not to react (before Kazan and signing of their treaty with RF). As to closing of Hormuz Straight by Iran, China may not be happy with that. Thus a complicated geopolitical dance with mad dog Israhell and rudderless US vs BRICS. Not to forget that US would not be keen to see $300 per barrel before the election. We wait.