H/T MoA. What caught my beady eye was the photo. Bizarre. The data given is good quality it seems.

https://indi.ca/how-america-is-losing-the-rocket-wars/



Smart missiles have changed war as much as smartphones have changed peace. Today we are used to having packages delivered to our door, and in the same way we get deceased. In this age when bombs deliver themselves, human bombers appear more and more anachronistic. Out of time and out of place. Today, the American military looks like Nokia circa 2010. Technically #1, but technologically beaten.

The American Model

The American model of war is Top Gun. Very expensive aircraft, supported by even more expensive aircraft carriers, dropping very expensive bombs on poor people. Since the 1980s, America bet on stealth, the ability to fuck around and never find out about it. It's fitting that they rebooted the recruitment film Top Gun because they're still using the same tired strategy. America's preferred strategy is still to penetrate deep with a manned aircraft, then release a somewhat smart bomb for the last few kilometers.

The other part of this model is missile defence, what used to be laughed at as 'Star Wars' in my day. Missile defense is the crazy idea of shooting down a missile with another missile, like Robin Hood splitting arrows. The crazy thing is that it actually works (until it doesn't). You can theoretically shoot down any missile, but you can't shoot down every missile. But America never faced that situation so never thought about it. Stealth plus missile defence plus picking on poor people gave America a bloated sense of confidence for decades. Within what passed for strategic thinking in America, the 1990s marked the end of history and the end of military history as well. The US comfortably pre-ordered F-35 stealth fighters until the 2070s. But as the saying goes, pre-orders goeth before the fall.

The Iranian Model

The Iranian model of war, on the other hand, is bottom bullet. As Ayatollah Khamenei said, “Possessing missiles doesn’t solve every problem, but it destroys the greedy fantasy of our enemies.” Iran has no air force to speak of and no fancy navy. Instead, they shoot missile salvos from (relatively) cheap trucks and disappear underground just as quickly. Iran bet the farm on missiles in the 1980s and now it's borne fruit across the region (they effectively open-sourced the technology). They started from shitty, modified Scuds, but now modern Resistance missiles are higher quality than western models, much cheaper, and produced in much higher quantities. Quantity is its own quality, and Iran's layered attacks (mixing dumb decoys and smart munitions) can flood the best air defense systems around them. That includes all American bases and aircraft carriers in the region, including 'Israel'.

The other part of the Iranian model is tunnels. Iran's missile launchers hide inside tunnels until they're needed. But Iran is no longer weak on the surface either. Iran has sophisticated air defenses and open collaboration with best-in-class Russia. However, the best defense is not being there at all. So after they fire, Iran's missile launchers are just gone. Iran's modern Katuyshas (missile launchers) are basically just trucks, and Iran has built hundreds if not thousands of hardened parking garages underground. These trucks pop-out, fire missiles, and then disappear. Hitting them is literally like hitting whack-a-mole.

Etc.