Smart missiles have changed war as much as smartphones have changed peace. Today we are used to having packages delivered to our door, and in the same way we get deceased. In this age when bombs deliver themselves, human bombers appear more and more anachronistic. Out of time and out of place. Today, the American military looks like Nokia circa 2010. Technically #1, but technologically beaten.
The American Model
The American model of war is Top Gun. Very expensive aircraft, supported by even more expensive aircraft carriers, dropping very expensive bombs on poor people. Since the 1980s, America bet on stealth, the ability to fuck around and never find out about it. It's fitting that they rebooted the recruitment film Top Gun because they're still using the same tired strategy. America's preferred strategy is still to penetrate deep with a manned aircraft, then release a somewhat smart bomb for the last few kilometers.
The other part of this model is missile defence, what used to be laughed at as 'Star Wars' in my day. Missile defense is the crazy idea of shooting down a missile with another missile, like Robin Hood splitting arrows. The crazy thing is that it actually works (until it doesn't). You can theoretically shoot down any missile, but you can't shoot down every missile. But America never faced that situation so never thought about it. Stealth plus missile defence plus picking on poor people gave America a bloated sense of confidence for decades. Within what passed for strategic thinking in America, the 1990s marked the end of history and the end of military history as well. The US comfortably pre-ordered F-35 stealth fighters until the 2070s. But as the saying goes, pre-orders goeth before the fall.
The Iranian Model
The Iranian model of war, on the other hand, is bottom bullet. As Ayatollah Khamenei said, “Possessing missiles doesn’t solve every problem, but it destroys the greedy fantasy of our enemies.” Iran has no air force to speak of and no fancy navy. Instead, they shoot missile salvos from (relatively) cheap trucks and disappear underground just as quickly. Iran bet the farm on missiles in the 1980s and now it's borne fruit across the region (they effectively open-sourced the technology). They started from shitty, modified Scuds, but now modern Resistance missiles are higher quality than western models, much cheaper, and produced in much higher quantities. Quantity is its own quality, and Iran's layered attacks (mixing dumb decoys and smart munitions) can flood the best air defense systems around them. That includes all American bases and aircraft carriers in the region, including 'Israel'.
The other part of the Iranian model is tunnels. Iran's missile launchers hide inside tunnels until they're needed. But Iran is no longer weak on the surface either. Iran has sophisticated air defenses and open collaboration with best-in-class Russia. However, the best defense is not being there at all. So after they fire, Iran's missile launchers are just gone. Iran's modern Katuyshas (missile launchers) are basically just trucks, and Iran has built hundreds if not thousands of hardened parking garages underground. These trucks pop-out, fire missiles, and then disappear. Hitting them is literally like hitting whack-a-mole.
Etc.
A no-nonsense survey of the state of play. Very good. Nm.
This quote “America has no strategic answer for fighting men in tunnels and never has.”
- Smacks of hubris. Oh dear. There is never no “no-strategic-answer” to any problem (if I may use a triple-negative for a moment) and it would be good to bear this in mind as a rule of thumb.
“.. and never has” brings to mind the tunnel rats of the Vietnam war which, granted, the USA lost. However, in the USA, the ends always justify the means so hopefully the ventilation in various adversaries’ tunnels, for example, is really, really good.
To wit: The “end of history” hasn’t yet worked in the resistance’s favor either. To infer that it has, would be hubris.
- Shyaku
Re: Very good, But …
Posted by t on November 16, 2024, 9:18 pm, in reply to "Very good, But …"
To wit: The “end of history” hasn’t yet worked in the resistance’s favor either. To infer that it has, would be hubris.
You are taking it too seriously. He was having a rant, not making a philosophical statement.
Personally, I am quite chaffed that: .. tunnel rats of the Vietnam war .. have given resistance movements around the world a military mechanism against the 'semi-industrial' warfare (hehe) by seppoes. A temporary hubris is good for morale, c'mon : ).
Not that I am trying to take any kudos away from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas for adopting the Vietnam tactics for decades now. They bet their farms on this tactic and have won so far imo.
Not to forget that Amsrallah also adopted the tactic of Vietnam rats ..
Houtis should also be included in my list! Indomitable part of the resistance that just chased away .. is it Abraham Lincoln carrier or some such? .. oh dear
on November 15, 2024, 1:49 pm