3 Feb 2026
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/showdown

For several years now I have been making the argument that, because American
military power is so widely dispersed and diluted across the planet, the only
way the United States could concentrate sufficient forces to prosecute a war
against one of its three major power adversaries (Russia, China, and Iran) would
be to significantly deplete its force posture relative to the other two.

That is precisely what has been happening over the course of the past few weeks
in relation to the military buildup in the Persian Gulf region, in apparent
preparation to launch an air campaign against Iran.

Now, granted, as I wrote yesterday, the force the US is concentrating in the
Middle East via an aggressive heavy airlift operation is not sufficiently potent
to sustain more than about two weeks of high-intensity war against Iran. US
stockpiles of precision-guided weaponry are simply too limited to allow for a
more protracted campaign.

Nor do I believe the US has the logistical and maintenance capacity to keep a
large percentage of its fleet of aging aircraft air-worthy for more than about
two weeks - especially when there will very likely be Iranian missiles raining
down on all the US bases in the region.

And therefore, if Iran proves capable of turning it into even a month-long
regional war of attrition, there is no way I can see the US being able to
sustain its sortie rate, nor to tolerate the losses of men and equipment it
would inevitably incur.

Ctd ...