For several years now I have been making the argument that, because American military power is so widely dispersed and diluted across the planet, the only way the United States could concentrate sufficient forces to prosecute a war against one of its three major power adversaries (Russia, China, and Iran) would be to significantly deplete its force posture relative to the other two.
That is precisely what has been happening over the course of the past few weeks in relation to the military buildup in the Persian Gulf region, in apparent preparation to launch an air campaign against Iran.
Now, granted, as I wrote yesterday, the force the US is concentrating in the Middle East via an aggressive heavy airlift operation is not sufficiently potent to sustain more than about two weeks of high-intensity war against Iran. US stockpiles of precision-guided weaponry are simply too limited to allow for a more protracted campaign.
Nor do I believe the US has the logistical and maintenance capacity to keep a large percentage of its fleet of aging aircraft air-worthy for more than about two weeks - especially when there will very likely be Iranian missiles raining down on all the US bases in the region.
And therefore, if Iran proves capable of turning it into even a month-long regional war of attrition, there is no way I can see the US being able to sustain its sortie rate, nor to tolerate the losses of men and equipment it would inevitably incur.
🤔 The one thing I have seen in these US air power updates over the past few days that has persuaded me more than any other that the US is really 3,going to launch strikes against Iran is that they have dispatched downed pilot rescue squadrons.
It's looking more like a throw of the dice rather than a cold-blooded war of conquest. I am not certain but it's looking more like a bluff than it did last week. The last working-class hero in England. Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ??? - 4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ???-4 December 2025
on February 3, 2026, 6:40 am